480
FXUS61 KOKX 232019
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
319 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure moves well offshore tonight ahead of a cold front
passage on Friday. High pressure then builds into the area Friday
night into Saturday before moving offshore Saturday night. A cold
front sweeps across Sunday, followed by another cold front
towards Tuesday or Tuesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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The high pressure that has been over the area the last several
days providing arctic air has continued to weaken this
afternoon. A baroclinic zone remains offshore along with a
strong 170-180 kt jet streak to our south. A wave of low
pressure will develop offshore in association with this jet
energy. The flow will keep this low well offshore tonight with
dry conditions continuing along with only a few clouds.
Temperatures will still be well below normal, but should be
warmer than the last several nights. Low temperatures look to
range from around 10 degrees inland to the middle and upper
teens closer to the coast. The NYC metro may not fall below 20
degrees. A few outlying areas and the LI Pine Barrens could fall
into the upper single digits. There will likely be a light NW
flow through the night, which may make it feel like it is in the
single digits to low teens at times, especially early Friday
morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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An upper trough approaches on Friday along with an associated
dry cold front. The front likely passes east by evening as the
shortwave axis begins to move offshore. The passage of the
trough and cold front will bring a reinforcement of cold air,
but not to the magnitude observed earlier this week. High
pressure builds towards the area Friday night, but most likely
remains to our south on Saturday with a surface ridge in place
over the northeast. The high then pushes off the Middle Atlantic
and southeast Saturday night. This pattern will lead to dry
conditions through the period.
Lows Friday night will be in the single digits inland and teens
most elsewhere. Winds will be light, but not completely calm
allowing wind chills to fall into the single digits to low
teens. Temperatures for Saturday look to range from the upper
20s inland to the lower 30s near the coast.
Moisture in the atmosphere gradually increases on Saturday.
Zonal flow aloft will begin to send mid level clouds into the
area in the afternoon and evening. A broad shortwave is then
progged to pass to our northwest at the same time as the surface
high pressure moving offshore. Warm advection commences
Saturday night as a result with mostly cloudy skies and milder
temperatures. Low temperatures for most locations will be in the
20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A predominantly dry and seasonably cold weather regime prevails
in the long term period. Temperatures may dip back below
seasonal levels towards the end of the period getting closer to
mid week.
The northern branch of the jet stream will remain dominant. With
energy closed off in the southern branch across the SW CONUS
there will be the lack of a moisture source for the foreseeable
future. The polar jet stream will be nearby throughout the
period. A cold front is expected to push through during Sunday.
The front will be moisture starved as mainly just some clouds
are expected preceding the front, with nothing more that a few
passing flurries across the interior.
The main question during next week is whether the region gets
reintroduced to very cold / arctic air. A stronger cold front
is expected to come down from Canada and cross the Great Lakes
early next week. Some of the global guidance is more aggressive
with the surge of cold air with a further south displacement and
release of cold air. The latest 12z GFS and DWD global
deterministic models are in this camp, with the previous 0z
ECMWF deterministic not as aggressive with the drive south of
colder air. There are also timing differences with the boundary
as the latest 12z ECMWF is a bit faster with the boundary and
drive it through sometime during the day Tuesday, with the GFS
driving it through later. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
continues to show an substantial increase in spread with
temperatures Tuesday night and through the mid to late week
period. Thus, the uncertainty with temperatures remains large
for the middle and latter part of next week. For the time being
went 1 top 2 degrees below NBM guidance Tuesday night through
Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region into Friday.
VFR.
SW-WSW Winds near 10kt this afternoon. Winds become west
tonight 5-10kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday PM and Saturday: VFR.
Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. W-WSW gusts 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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A weak pressure gradient will lead to winds and seas below SCA
levels through Saturday. A steepening pressure gradient Saturday
night results in increasing SW winds and the next chance for SCA
wind gusts and seas on the ocean. SCA conditions should then
continue on the ocean waters for Sunday through Tuesday, with
marginal SCA conditions likely for the non-ocean waters on
primarily a west wind. Ocean seas during this time are expected
to be mainly between 4 and 6 ft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through the middle of next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS