242
FXUS61 KOKX 251742
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1242 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds this afternoon and shifts east of the
region tonight into Sunday. A frontal system moves across
Sunday. High pressure builds in for Monday. Strong low pressure
passes well north of the area Monday night and drags a cold
front through the area on Tuesday. Brief high pressure then
moves in Tuesday night before a clipper low passes through on
Wednesday into Wednesday. High pressure likely builds in
thereafter to end the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated for current conditions, with no significant changes.
High pressure builds this afternoon with dry weather and mostly
clear skies continuing through the afternoon.
Zonal flow aloft will mean relatively quick moving systems for
the near and short term periods.
Continued well below normal temperatures expected today, with
highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weak upper level shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes
region tonight, along with a surface frontal system. The
associated warm front lifts north of the area late tonight. This
will allow winds to shift to the SW late in the day today and
continuing into tonight, with the flow strengthening for Sunday.
The front is expected to move through in the afternoon on
Sunday, but should do so dry as there is little moisture to work
with and much of the forcing lies north of the area. A stray
snow shower cannot be ruled out for eastern areas however as a
weak vorticity max moves through these areas, but decided to go
with a dry forecast as this is still too low of a chance to
include in the forecast.
Monday will be dry with behind the departing cold front as
another cold front dives southeast over southern Canada, but
remains well north of the area through the day.
Temperatures will warm overnight tonight thanks to warm
advection ahead of and behind the warm front. So, overnight lows
are expected to be set early in the evening. Highs on Sunday and
Monday are expected to be closer to normal for this time of
year.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong upper level low and associated surface low pass well
to the north of our area Monday night into Tuesday. An
associated cold front looks to pass through the area sometime on
Tuesday. The timing of the front has sped up a bit with the
latest 00z guidance. Because of this, trended colder than the
NBM for Tuesday`s highs. Keeping the forecast dry for now as it
looks like any precipitation will fall north of the area.
However, can not completely rule out brief light snow showers
across the interior just behind the front.
A clipper low then looks to move through on Wednesday, bringing
a slight chance of snow showers to the area and rain/snow
across much of Long Island. The bulk of any precipitation will
be to our north where the greatest lift and moisture is. While
it is still far out for forecast amounts, any snow we do get
from this system will likely end up being very light amounts.
While some differences remain across the guidance, thereafter
the general idea is that high pressure builds in to end the
week. However, an upper level trough remains over the northeast
and another weak low or two could move through as shortwaves
spin around the broader trough. Colder air building in will also
result in highs potentially not making it out of the 30s on
Thursday and Friday, with lows each night in the single digits
and teens.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in today, shifting east of the region into
tonight as a frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes.
VFR. Mid and upper deck lowers this afternoon and evening.
W flow backs SW into this afternoon. Speeds around 10 kt thru
rest of the day, with gusts toward 20 kt possible, though may
be more occasional. Gusts diminish this evening but resume by
late Sunday AM as flow goes westerly and speeds increase to
15G25kt. Gusts subside by early Sunday evening as speeds lower
back toward 10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be more occasional than frequent today.
A few gusts may exceed 30 kt on Sunday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday-Tuesday: VFR. W-WSW gusts 20-25 kt.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow showers. W gusts 20-25kt
Thursday: VFR. NW gusts 30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No changes to the winds and seas with this update.
Winds and waves remain below SCA levels through this afternoon.
SW winds are expected to increase overnight as a frontal system
approaches from the west. Have expanded the SCA across all non
ocean waters except the harbor. Non ocean waters may end up
being more marginal or occasional.
SCA is currently in effect for the ocean waters Saturday
night through Sunday. With SCA gusts expected to be more
marginal and intermittent on the non-ocean waters, held off on
SCA issuance for non-ocean zones.
Winds diminish Sunday night, but increase once again on
Monday ahead of another approaching frontal system from Canada.
Wave heights on the ocean build to 5 ft tonight, and peak at 5
to 7 ft on Sunday. They then diminish Sunday night, but may not
fall below 5 ft as they are expected to increase again late
Sunday night into Monday.
The Great South Bay and Peconic and Gardiners bays seem to have
some ice as seen from satellite imagery, so wave heights in the
Coastal Waters Forecast would only be for ice free waters.
Strong low pressure passes well to the north of the area Monday
night, but will bring gusty conditions to the waters. At least SCA
conditions are expected on all waters, with the potential for gales.
At this time the highest confidence in gales is over the two eastern
ocean zones, where an HWO is highlighted. Given the strong winds,
seas are also forecast to reach 8-12 feet over the two eastern ocean
zones. SCA conditions then look to linger through Tuesday on all non
ocean waters and Tuesday night for the ocean waters.
The passing of a clipper low will then bring the next chance for SCA
conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night and then they likely
continue as high pressure builds into the area through the end of
the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Sunday
for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday
for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JP/MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT