294
FXUS61 KOKX 261445
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
945 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through today. High pressure briefly returns
tonight, before low pressure approaches from the north. The low
will pass well north of the area, but drag a cold front through
on Tuesday. Tuesday is followed by a clipper on Wednesday. High
pressure then builds in through the rest of the week, with a
frontal boundary remaining in the vicinity through the weekend
as low pressure develops over the mid-West.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A weak cold front draped over Central PA just before 15Z moves
through this afternoon. No precipitation is expected given weak
lift and lack of moisture. However, with relatively deep mixing
above 900 mb ahead of the boundary and modest low level flow
overhead, blustery conditions are expected with 25 to 30 mph
gusts possible from late this morning through the afternoon.
Stuck close to the NBM for highs today. Temperatures are expected to
reach the low 40s (right around normal for late January), which
would be the warmest day in about a week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough remains over the eastern CONUS through the
short term period. A potent shortwave in the broader trough dives
down from central Canada tonight. Associated surface low pressure
rapidly deepens and will pass well to our north. As it moves east it
will drag a cold front through the area on Tuesday.
As the low deepens to the north, the pressure gradient over the area
tightens and winds start to increase again on Monday. By Monday
night, a strong low level jet forms over eastern portions of our
area with about 40 kt at 950mb. The NAM is the strongest, showing 45
to 50 kt at 950mb. Confidence is high over the warmer ocean waters
that these stronger winds will mix down, but there is with
just how much can mix down over land given the expected
inversion. This will have to be monitored as advisory level
gusts can not be completely ruled out, mainly for the Twin Forks
of Long Island and the southeast CT coast. While the strongest
winds aloft will be mainly east of the area by Tuesday morning,
with deep mixing behind the cold front 30 to 35 mph gusts are
possible through Tuesday afternoon. This cold front has a little
bit of a better chance to bring precip to the area. Kept
general idea from previous forecast but fine tuned timing. PoPs
remain capped at 30 percent. Confidence not high enough to
include any QPF or snow amount as anything that falls will
likely be very light.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A clipper system approaches Tuesday night and tracks over
southern/central New England Wednesday. Best pcpn chances along and
N of the sfc low track. Although the timing seems to be in pretty
good agreement amongst the models, the exact position of the low is
still uncertain, with the 00Z ECMWF further N than the GFS. Both
models however bring the CWA into the warm sector attm. Cannot rule
out a track ending up further S, but for now will continue to follow
the consensus modeling and keep the low N of the area, resulting in
milder temps and lower pcpn chances and amounts.
Thereafter, high pressure builds in through the end of the week.
However, a frontal boundary remains draped over the area, and could
potentially remain in the vicinity through the weekend. Another weak
clipper system may pass over northern New England Thursday night, but
looks to be too far north to bring any precipitation the the area.
However, this far out, there is a great deal of uncertainty with the
low and where the front will be, so stuck close to the NBM.
With the area in the warm sector of the clipper system on Wednesday,
temperatures are expected to be above normal, ranging from the lower
to middle 40s. The front dips south of the area on Thursday, and
below normal temperatures are once again expected, with near normal
temperatures for Friday, and slightly warmer temperatures for
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak cold front approaches and passes through this afternoon.
VFR. W winds increase to around 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt late
this morning through this afternoon. Winds then diminish this
evening.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. WSW gusts 20-25kt.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. CHC brief MVFR in rain/snow shower. WNW gusts
25-30kt with chc 35kt.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow showers. W gusts around
25kt
Thursday: VFR. NW gusts 25-30 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters today and
continues on the ocean tonight. Gusts around 25 kt expected on
non ocean waters, with 25 to 30 kt gusts on the ocean and seas
5 to 7 feet.
There will be a brief lull in activity tonight where winds and seas
fall below SCA criteria. However, as low pressure approaches from
the north the pressure gradient increases and SCA conditions return
by Monday morning. By Monday night, Gale conditions are possible for
the ocean waters, eastern LI Sound and Peconic and Gardiners Bays
and a Gale Watch has been issued. Gales can not be ruled out on the
other waters, but confidence is not high enough to issue a watch at
this time. Will continue a mention in the HWO. In the Gale Watch
areas, gusts of 35 to 40 kt are possible. Guidance continues to show
at least 40 kt at 950mb, with mixing over the waters up to 925mb.
There is potential for some isolated gusts over 40 kt. Given the
strong winds, seas on the ocean waters likely rise to 8 to 12 feet
and waves on the LI Sound likely rise to 3 to 5 feet. Winds and
waves lower to SCA conditions by Tuesday afternoon.
A SCA may be needed through Wed as winds gust to near 25 kt.
Best chances for SCA would be the ocean, but there is the
potential that it would be needed for all waters. SCA conditions
continue on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next
weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for
ANZ332-340-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...DR/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP/MET
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT