200
FXUS61 KOKX 262036
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
336 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moving through this afternoon exits offshore, with weak
high pressure briefly returning tonight and Monday. Low pressure
passes well to the north Monday night, dragging another cold front
through Tuesday. Weak high pressure moving across Tuesday night will
give way to an Alberta Clipper low tracking to the north on
Wednesday, with a trailing cold front passing through by Wednesday
evening. High pressure will then build from the west from Wednesday
night into Thursday, and retreat to the northeast on Friday as a low
pressure system approaches for the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The region remains at the base of broad troughing situated over
eastern Canada. Weak embedded shortwave energy passing thru New
England is pushing a cold front through the region this afternoon,
though no precipitation given weak lift and very limited moisture
to work with. Deeper mixing above 900 mb has led to some wind
gusts exceeding 25 mph, but this should subside early this
evening with lightening flow.
After the mildest day in a week, temperatures tonight fall back
similar to last night, teens inland and 20s along the coast. Skies
clear out overnight into early morning as weak high pressure returns
behind the fropa and drier air and subsidence move in.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Subsidence sets up abundant sunshine Monday with clear skies.
Low level flow begins to strengthen ahead of the next incoming
frontal system, and SW gusts 25 to 30 mph develop by day`s end.
Slightly cooler air mass in place Monday, a couple of degrees
cooler from the previous day, with afternoon highs generally
spanning the mid 30s inland to around 40 along the coast.
A bit more potent shortwave rounds the base of the broader trough
into Monday night. Associated surface low well to the north rapidly
deepens as it does so, dragging another cold front toward and
through the region on Tuesday. Pressure gradient tightens as the
region gets sandwiched between this deepening low pressure, and a
high centered over the Deep South. This will lead to a period of
blustery winds late Monday through Tuesday, though it still looks to
fall short of a wind headline, with gusts generally 30 to 35 mph,
and a few toward 40 mph possible. Best chance of exceeding 40 mph
are along the SE CT coast, as well as eastern LI. Deep mixing
behind the cold front should allow 30 to 35 mph gusts to remain
possible through Tuesday afternoon.
Better forcing with this front may couple with some added moisture
from the Lakes and allow a few snow showers to move through along
and ahead of the boundary, generally Tuesday AM, with highest
chances across the interior. Coverage in the higher res guidance
looks isolated to scattered at best. Little to no accum with
this activity. Frontal passage in the morning, then drying out
Tuesday afternoon, absent a stray flurry or snow shower.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A clipper system approaches Tuesday night and tracks over
southern/central New England Wednesday. Best pcpn chances along and
N of the sfc low track. Although the timing seems to be in pretty
good agreement amongst the models, the exact position of the low is
still uncertain, with the 00Z ECMWF further N than the GFS. Both
models however bring the CWA into the warm sector attm. Cannot rule
out a track ending up further S, but for now will continue to follow
the consensus modeling and keep the low N of the area, resulting in
milder temps and lower pcpn chances and amounts.
Thereafter, high pressure builds in through the end of the week.
However, a frontal boundary remains draped over the area, and could
potentially remain in the vicinity through the weekend. Another weak
clipper system may pass over northern New England Thursday night, but
looks to be too far north to bring any precipitation the the area.
However, this far out, there is a great deal of uncertainty with the
low and where the front will be, so stuck close to the NBM.
With the area in the warm sector of the clipper system on Wednesday,
temperatures are expected to be above normal, ranging from the lower
to middle 40s. The front dips south of the area on Thursday, and
below normal temperatures are once again expected, with near normal
temperatures for Friday, and slightly warmer temperatures for
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A weak cold front passed through the terminals 19Z to 20Z, and winds
have become more WNW. High pressure builds to the southwest while
low pressure tracks across southern Canada through Monday.
VFR. WNW winds 10-15 kt, gusts around 20 to 25 kt through 21Z/ 22Z.
Winds then diminish to less than 10 kt this evening. WSW winds
increase Monday morning with gusts developing 15Z to 17Z.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected. Occasional gusts Monday
afternoon may approach 30 kt.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon: VFR. WSW gusts 20-25kt, diminishing late day, and
ending by 01Z.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. CHC brief MVFR, possibly IFR, in snow showers.
WNW 15-20 kt, gusts 25-30 kt, with chc 35 kt along the coast.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in light snow, especially across
the northern terminals. WSW gusts around 25 kt.
Thursday - Friday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt Thursday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters into early
this evening, and on the ocean until 1 AM tonight with westerly
wind gusts aoa 25 kt. SCA comes down as winds lighten, then a brief
reprieve in conditions tonight on all waters.
Thereafter, strengthening flow ahead of the next frontal system will
return Advisory conditions to all waters, first on the ocean Monday
morning, then all other waters by the afternoon. Gales develop on
the ocean, eastern LI Sound, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays Monday
evening, persisting thru at least Tue afternoon, if not Tue evening.
Gusts on these waters likely between 35 and 40 kt, with a few gusts
exceeding 40 kt possible. Gale Watch that had been in place for
these zones has been upgraded to a warning. Given the strong winds,
seas on the ocean climb toward 8 to 12 feet and up to 5 ft on the
LI Sound. All other zones will continue to see at least SCA
conditions Monday night and Tuesday, and gales can not be ruled
out, but may be more occasional here. Will continue a mention
in the HWO.
SCA cond likely on the ocean daytime Wed with W flow gusting to 25
kt, and may be possible on the other waters as well. SCA cond likely
on all waters after cold fropa early Wed evening and continuing into
Thu morning, with some gale force gusts possible on the ern ocean
waters Wed night. SCA cond should persist on the ocean waters
thereafter from Thu afternoon into Fri morning, and out east Fri
afternoon/night, as flow turns westerly Thu night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts expected through this week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Gale Warning from 6 PM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ332-
340-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR