605
FXUS61 KOKX 270536
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1236 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will be in place through Monday. Low pressure
passes well to the north Monday night, dragging a cold front
through on Tuesday. Weak high pressure moving across Tuesday
night will give way to an Alberta Clipper low tracking to the
north on Wednesday, with a trailing cold front passing through
by Wednesday evening. High pressure will then build from the
west from Wednesday night into Thursday, and retreat to the
northeast on Friday as a low pressure system approaches for the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Minor changes made with this update, mainly to hourly
temperatures and dewpoints over the next few hours.
Weak high pressure will be in place tonight. Dry, with mid to
high-level clouds making it appear mostly cloudy from time to
time until skies clear out towards daybreak with the as
moisture above 600mb shifts east of the region. Temperatures
fall back to levels similar to last night, with teens inland and
20s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Subsidence sets up abundant sunshine Monday with clear skies.
Low level flow begins to strengthen ahead of the next incoming
frontal system, and SW gusts 25 to 30 mph develop by day`s end.
Slightly cooler air mass in place Monday, a couple of degrees
cooler from the previous day, with afternoon highs generally
spanning the mid 30s inland to around 40 along the coast.
A bit more potent shortwave rounds the base of the broader trough
into Monday night. Associated surface low well to the north rapidly
deepens as it does so, dragging another cold front toward and
through the region on Tuesday. Pressure gradient tightens as the
region gets sandwiched between this deepening low pressure, and a
high centered over the Deep South. This will lead to a period of
blustery winds late Monday through Tuesday, though it still looks to
fall short of a wind headline, with gusts generally 30 to 35 mph,
and a few toward 40 mph possible. Best chance of exceeding 40 mph
are along the SE CT coast, as well as eastern LI. Deep mixing
behind the cold front should allow 30 to 35 mph gusts to remain
possible through Tuesday afternoon.
Better forcing with this front may couple with some added moisture
from the Lakes and allow a few snow showers to move through along
and ahead of the boundary, generally Tuesday AM, with highest
chances across the interior. Coverage in the higher res guidance
looks isolated to scattered at best. Little to no accum with
this activity. Frontal passage in the morning, then drying out
Tuesday afternoon, absent a stray flurry or snow shower.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A clipper system approaches Tuesday night and tracks over
southern/central New England Wednesday. Best pcpn chances along and
N of the sfc low track. Although the timing seems to be in pretty
good agreement amongst the models, the exact position of the low is
still uncertain, with the 00Z ECMWF further N than the GFS. Both
models however bring the CWA into the warm sector attm. Cannot rule
out a track ending up further S, but for now will continue to follow
the consensus modeling and keep the low N of the area, resulting in
milder temps and lower pcpn chances and amounts.
Thereafter, high pressure builds in through the end of the week.
However, a frontal boundary remains draped over the area, and could
potentially remain in the vicinity through the weekend. Another weak
clipper system may pass over northern New England Thursday night, but
looks to be too far north to bring any precipitation the the area.
However, this far out, there is a great deal of uncertainty with the
low and where the front will be, so stuck close to the NBM.
With the area in the warm sector of the clipper system on Wednesday,
temperatures are expected to be above normal, ranging from the lower
to middle 40s. The front dips south of the area on Thursday, and
below normal temperatures are once again expected, with near normal
temperatures for Friday, and slightly warmer temperatures for
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure remains in place today, then a cold front
approaches Monday tonight.
VFR. WSW winds under 10 kt through the most, if not all of the
morning push. WSW winds then increase later in Monday morning
with gusts developing 17Z to 18Z. Gusts may subside for a few
hours during the evening hours, but otherwise continue through
the night.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts Monday afternoon may approach 30 kt. Gusts
might be only occasional from approx 23Z-04Z with sustained
winds lowering by a few kt during that period.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday tonight: VFR. WSW-SW gusts 25-35 kt.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. CHC brief MVFR, possibly IFR, in snow showers.
WNW 15-25 kt, gusts around 30 kt, with chc 35 kt along the
coast. Winds subside PM.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in light snow, especially across
the northern terminals. WSW gusts around 25 kt.
Thursday - Friday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt Thursday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions are expected for the rest of tonight.
A strengthening flow ahead of the next frontal system will
bring a return to advisory conditions to all waters, first on
the ocean possibly by the end of Monday morning, then all other
waters by the end of the afternoon. Gales develop on the ocean,
eastern LI Sound, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays Monday
evening, persisting thru at least Tue afternoon, if not Tue
evening. Gusts on these waters likely between 35 and 40 kt, with
a few gusts exceeding 40 kt possible. Gale Watch that had been
in place for these zones has been upgraded to a warning. Given
the strong winds, seas on the ocean climb toward 8 to 12 feet
and up to 5 ft on the LI Sound. All other zones will continue to
see at least SCA conditions Monday night and Tuesday, and gales
can not be ruled out, but may be more occasional here. Will
continue a mention in the HWO.
SCA cond likely on the ocean daytime Wed with W flow gusting to 25
kt, and may be possible on the other waters as well. SCA cond likely
on all waters after cold fropa early Wed evening and continuing into
Thu morning, with some gale force gusts possible on the ern ocean
waters Wed night. SCA cond should persist on the ocean waters
thereafter from Thu afternoon into Fri morning, and out east Fri
afternoon/night, as flow turns westerly Thu night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through this week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
ANZ332-340-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC/JP
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR