943
FXUS61 KOKX 271114
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
614 AM EST Mon Jan 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to weaken over the area this morning as
strong low pressure moves through Canada. This low will pass well
north of the area tonight and drag a cold front through on Tuesday.
Weak high pressure briefly builds in early Tuesday night before a
clipper low passes through Wednesday morning through the afternoon.
High pressure then gradually builds in from the west. A warm
front lifts north of the area Thursday night as low pressure over
the Mid-West approaches. The low may impact the region Friday into
the first half of the weekend before another front pushes it out
to sea. Canadian high pressure builds in for Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure weakens over the area this morning as a shortwave and
associated weak surface trough move through the area. Not much
expected from this feature in terms of sensible weather except for
some mid and high level clouds. High pressure then continues to
weaken as a strong 970mb surface low moves through Canada.
While the low will pass well north of the area, winds gradually
increase today and back to the southwest in response to the
tightening pressure gradient. By the afternoon expect sustained
winds at 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph.
Plenty of subsidence through the column today will allow for sunny
skies. Very little spread across the NBM and bias corrected raw
guidance with highs today so stuck close to the NBM which has highs
in the upper 30s to low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As mentioned, strong low pressure will pass well to our north, but
it will drag a cold front through our area on Tuesday. Winds ahead
of that front continue to strengthen tonight. A strong LLJ forms
late this evening, with the axis roughly oriented from just south of
Long Island, up through eastern Suffolk County and then into RI and
Cape Cod. Latest guidance continues to show 40 to 45 knots at 950mb.
The NAM still shows the strongest LLJ with 45 to 50 knots at 950mb,
but this is an outlier. Over the relatively warmer waters there is
high confidence tonight of 40+ knot gusts making it to the
surface with forecast soundings showing mixing up to 925mb+,
but with an expected inversion over land, gusts likely stay
below wind advisory criteria. Across eastern Suffolk County and
southeastern CT, gusts up to 40 mph are expected, with isolated
45+ mph gusts possible. Elsewhere, gusts will range from 25 to
35 mph. After sunrise Tuesday, while the strong LLJ will push
east, deep mixing will allow for widespread 35 mph gusts. There
is still some uncertainty with exactly when the cold front moves
through, but it will likely be sometime in the late morning or
early afternoon on Tuesday. The best chances for any
precipitation with this front will be across the interior, but
slight chance PoPs extend down to the coast. This would fall as
light rain or snow showers depending on location. Some of the
activity could be more in the form of squalls, but the bulk of
this activity is expected to stay north and west of the area.
This potential will continue to be monitored as guidance does
show very weak SBCAPE values with decent low level
frontogenesis resulting in non-zero snow squall parameter values.
Regardless, any snow that does fall would likely not result in
more than a dusting.
Weak high pressure briefly builds in for the start of Tuesday night,
but will quickly be followed by a clipper low diving down from the
northwest. This system will once again bring gusty winds to the area
as well as rain and snow showers. The best chances for any
accumulation will be across the interior, but will once again be
light. Current forecast has up to half an inch of snowfall across
eastern CT.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front that moved through Wednesday night will push farther
south on Thursday. Though with timing differences in models, the
front may still be within the forecast area Thursday morning. High
pressure builds in behind the front while an upper level trough off
the coast of New England pushes east.
The front lifts back north as a warm front Thursday night as low
pressure over southern Canada moves east across northern New England
into Friday, and weakens as it does so. Meanwhile, a more potent low
over the Mid-West moves toward the region Thursday night. This low
may impact the region as early as Friday evening, but there is a
great deal timing and placement differences, so stuck close to NBM
in regards to POPs.
Eventually, a cold front moves through from the northwest, pushing
the low out approaching the area from the Mid-West out to sea Sunday
morning, and high pressure builds in for the rest of Sunday. This
could end up suppressing the low to the south of the forecast area,
and we would be on the northern fringes of the low.
Temperatures and precipitation types during this time frame is
highly dependent on exactly where the fronts will be. For now,
expect slightly below normal temperatures on Thursday, slightly
above normal for Friday as the warm front lifts north of the area,
then back down to near normal on Saturday and slightly cooler for
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains in place today, then a cold front
approaches tonight.
VFR. WSW winds under 10 kt through the most, if not all of the
morning push. WSW winds then increase later this morning with
gusts developing 17Z to 18Z. Gusts may subside for a few hours
during the evening hours, but otherwise continue through the
night.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts this afternoon may approach 30 kt. Gusts might
be only occasional from approx 23Z-04Z with sustained winds
lowering by a few kt during that period.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tonight: VFR. WSW-SW gusts 25-35 kt.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. CHC brief MVFR, possibly IFR, in snow showers.
WNW 15-25 kt, gusts around 30 kt, with chc 35 kt along the
coast. Winds subside PM.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in light snow, especially across
the northern terminals. WSW gusts around 25 kt.
Thursday - Friday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt Thursday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds increase today and peak tonight through Tuesday. The Gale
Warning now includes all waters except the western LI Sound and NY
Harbor and starts at 6 PM. Ahead of the gales, a Small Craft
Advisory has been issued for all waters starting at 1 PM for 25 kt
wind gusts.
For the gale warning, 35 to 40 kt gusts are expected, with a few
isolated gusts up to 45 kt possible for the far eastern LI Sound and
eastern ocean zone. Given the strong winds, seas on the ocean likely
reach 7 to 10 feet, with waves on the Sound reaching 4 to 6
feet.
Winds and waves briefly lower below SCA criteria Tuesday night
before increasing again Wednesday into Wednesday night with the
passing of a clipper low. There is potential for gales once again,
mainly on the ocean waters. Confidence is low at this time and will
leave out of the HWO.
SCA conditions on the ocean waters for Thursday as waves 4 to 8 ft
diminish through the day, possibly dropping below 5 ft for most of
the ocean waters by Thursday evening as high pressure builds in over
the waters. Waves increase to above 5 ft late Thursday night from
Fire Island to Montauk Point as low pressure approaches from the
west and remain above 5 ft through the day Friday and possibly at
least the first half of Friday night.
Winds will largely be below 25 kt across the non-ocean waters
through the period, though occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible.
Winds of 25 to 30 kt over the ocean early Thursday morning diminish
by late morning or early afternoon, but increase to around 25 kt
once again late Thursday night into Friday diminishing Friday
night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST this
evening for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
Tuesday for ANZ335-338.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT