064
FXUS61 KOKX 280523
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1223 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong low pressure moves across southeast Canada tonight,
dragging a cold front through Tuesday morning. Another clipper
low passes through Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure
gradually builds in from the west through Thursday, and moves
offshore Thursday night. Low pressure may impact the region
Friday through Sunday. High pressure builds to the north late
Sunday before another frontal system impacts the area Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Updated temperatures and dew points for the next few hours based
on the latest trends. The rest of the forecast is mainly on
track.
A strong low pressure moving across southeast Canada will send
a cold front towards the region tonight. The system will be
accompanied by a potent middle level vortmax that dives
southeastward across the Great Lakes tonight and then New
England Tuesday morning.
Low level winds will strengthen ahead of the front tonight,
40-60 kt at 925 mb. The NAM continues to be a bit stronger
closer to 950 mb, but there will likely be an inversion
preventing the strongest winds from reaching the surface. Still
anticipate gusts remaining below Advisory levels tonight with
the strongest occurring across eastern Long Island and
potentially towards southeast Connecticut, around 40 mph.
Otherwise, gusts should generally range from 25-35 mph.
The other concern for tonight into Tuesday morning revolves
around potential for snow showers. Guidance has come into much
better agreement that any precipitation will hold off until
after day break Tuesday morning. Have gone with a dry forecast
for tonight. The atmosphere is quite dry and the most
substantial lift associated vortmax looks to pass well to our
north. There will be a line of snow squall/snow showers to our
north west Monday night. This activity will weaken considerably
as it enters the interior and should continue diminishing as it
reaches the coast. Will continue with a slight chance PoP for a
snow shower. However, not anticipating any significant impacts
with any snow shower. A few spots could see quick dusting, but
this looks isolated. The convective activity could also help
bring down a few isolated stronger gusts to 45 mph due to the
lingering low level dry air.
The front and any lingering snow showers push offshore by
late morning. Some stratocu may linger into the afternoon, but
some sun is anticipated. High temperatures should be a few
degrees below normal in the lower 30s inland and middle 30s
closer to the coast. Gusty NW winds are likely in the morning,
25-35 mph, before settling to around 25 mph in the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Upper troughing will remain over the northeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Another shortwave, associated vort max, and
clipper low approach Tuesday night. This will help send a warm
front towards the area by early Wednesday morning. Warm
advection may lead to an area of light snow along and ahead of
the front. There is some uncertainty on the exact location of
the light snow, but current trends favor portions of the
interior and Southern Connecticut. The snow should be light, but
may bring an accumulation up to an inch, especially interior
CT. The current trends have the majority of the snow ending by
day break Wednesday.
The Clipper low passes to the east Wednesday morning with its
trailing cold front moving through in the afternoon and early
evening. Ahead of the cold front, temperatures should be able to
rise into the lower 40s inland and middle 40s closer to the coast
with a breezy westerly flow. There may be some rain showers or snow
showers late in the day with the cold front passage. At this time,
temperatures look marginal for any impact from the potential snow
showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A developing nearly zonal flow Wednesday night, and continuing
into the beginning of next week, will lead to a progressive and
active long term period as system track quickly across the
region. And with this progressive flow, differences in the
global guidance increase, especially for Friday and into the
beginning of next week. While the deterministic NBM was used,
and have probabilities of precipitation through the upcoming
weekend, with the progressive flow, much of the weekend may end
up dry. There are also differences in the track of systems which
will have an impact on precipitation types. While still have a
rain/snow mix, going to rain, Thursday night into Friday trends
have been for the low to track either farther to the north of
further south, which will lead to more rain, or potentially a
dry forecast by Saturday. Overall, very low confidence in the
forecast with the timing and placement of systems for the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches and moves across the area near noontime
today.
VFR. SW-WSW winds around 15kt with gusts around 25kt. Winds veer
more westerly after the morning push with a slight chance of a snow
shower and brief vsby reduction until around noontime. Winds veer
further towards WNW for the afternoon. Gusts from approx 14-17z
could peak 35-40kt. Winds at 2kft at 40-45kt until about 08-09z.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may be backed by 20-30 degrees vs the forecast through 09z.
Winds this afternoon prevailing south/left of 310 magnetic.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Late tonight: Chance of MVFR or lower in light snow, mainly across
the northern terminals.
Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in light snow, mainly across
the northern terminals in the morning. Otherwise, mainly VFR
with a slight chance of a shower in the afternoon. WSW gusts
25-30kt.
Thursday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt in the morning.
Friday: Sub-VFR in rain.
Saturday: Morning sub-VFR and snow possible along with N gusts
around 20kt, otherwise VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.
Gale conditions are expected to develop on the ocean, LI Bays,
and central and eastern LI Sound tonight with gusts 35 to 40 kt.
These winds will likely linger into Tuesday morning before
diminishing to SCA levels early Tuesday afternoon. The Gale
Warning is in effect through 18z Tuesday. On the western LI
sound and NY Harbor, winds should remain below gale force with
an SCA through Tuesday afternoon. Given the strong winds, seas
on the ocean likely reach 7 to 10 feet, with waves on the Sound
reaching 4 to 6 feet. Winds and sea briefly lower below SCA
criteria Tuesday night before increasing again Wednesday.
In the wake of a clipper system and a cold frontal passage
Wednesday night, a strong and gusty west to northwest flow will
be across the forecast waters, with gale gusts likely on the
ocean waters, and small craft conditions on the non ocean
waters. With a weakening pressure gradient as high pressure
builds in Thursday conditions fall below SCA levels on the non
ocean waters Thursday morning, and on the ocean waters Thursday
afternoon. With another frontal system impacting the waters late
Thursday night into the weekend, after a brief lull late
Thursday, SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean Thursday
night into Friday night as another frontal system impacts the
region. Marginal SCA conditions may continue on the eastern
ocean waters Saturday into Saturday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-340-
345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-
338.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$