123
FXUS61 KOKX 280855
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
355 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong low pressure passing well to our north will drag a cold front
through the area today. Brief, weak surface ridging builds in this
evening before a clipper low moves through the area late tonight
through Wednesday. High pressure builds in thereafter through
Thursday. A frontal system impacts the area on Friday, with
another one possible by the end of the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A strong 970mb surface low is currently moving through eastern
Canada as it`s cold front approaches our area from the west. The
system is accompanied by a potent middle level vortmax that can be
seen very clearly on water vapor satellite imagery currently moving
into western NY.

Winds have steadily increased as the pressure gradient over the area
tightens. A LLJ has formed, with the axis over the southern half of
the area. The stronger NAM appears to be verifying the best. The NAM
has steadily been a bit stronger with the 950mb winds and the OKX
radar is currently sampling up to 50 kt at 2kft. Given the inversion
over land, much of this is not making it to the ground as obs show
gusts right now around 30 to 35 mph. The best chance at any 40 to
isolated 45 mph gusts this morning will be across eastern Suffolk
County and southeastern CT. After sunrise, the bulk of the LLJ will
be east of the area, but with deep mixing much of the area will see
35 to 40 mph gusts through the day. There will be a very brief
window this morning where the LLJ will still be over the area as we
begin to mix out and gusts could reach Wind Advisory criteria
(46mph), but have held off in issuance for now as this will likely be
isolated.

With the passing of the cold front, guidance continues to show the
potential for snow showers/squalls this morning. The best chance for
this will be north and west of the area, but there is potential for
some of the activity to make it into our area as it weakens. Strong
low level frontogenesis and low values of SBCAPE are leading to non-
zero Snow Squall Parameter values over our area. Not anticipating
any significant impacts. A few spots could see a quick dusting, but
this looks isolated. The convective activity could also help bring
down a few isolated stronger gusts to 45 mph due to the lingering
low level dry air.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A broad upper level trough remains over the area through Wednesday.
Very brief surface ridging builds in tonight, but is quickly
followed by the next system. A clipper low, and associated vortmax
rotating through the broader upper level trough, will move through
late tonight through Wednesday. The associated warm front pushes
north of the area tonight and warm advection may lead to an area of
light snow along and ahead of the front. There may then be a lull in
precipitation until the cold front moves through during the day.
Isolated to scattered snow and/or rain showers are forecast, with
the potential for some of this activity to be in the form of squalls
also. Another gusty day is expected with widespread 35 to 40 mph
gusts.

The upper level flow starts to flatten out Wednesday night into
Thursday and high pressure builds in at the surface. A sunny but
cold day is expected Thursday, with highs back down in the 30s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A frontal sys approaches from the W Thu ngt. WAA pcpn is modeled to
overspread the area, so expect a wintry mix Thu ngt changing to rain
on Fri as the entire cwa is warm sectored. With the low over the
cntrl CONUS progged to track well N of the cwa, CAD is expected to
be minimal. A change in track however could alter that, but it is
not fcst attm.

Rain on Fri tapers off Fri ngt, perhaps as snow or rasn. The area is
dry slotted so snow accums are expected to be minimal if any.

Colder for Sat behind the sys, then a Pacific/nrn stream hybrid
potentially impacts the cwa Sun into Mon. Variations in the progged
track right now, with the ECMWF slightly faster and further N than
the GFS. With this pattern, some snow turning to a mix/rain would be
expected late Sun and Sun ngt, then the pcpn ends for Mon. NBM pops
were followed.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A cold front moves across the area today.

VFR. Increasing SW-WSW winds with gusts around 25kt, veering more
westerly after the morning push with a slight chance of a snow
shower and brief vsby reduction until around noontime. Winds veer
further towards WNW for the afternoon. Gusts from approx 14-17z
could peak 35-40kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may only be ocnl thru 12Z.

Winds this afternoon prevailing south/left of 310 magnetic.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: Chance of MVFR or lower in light snow after midnight,
mainly across the northern terminals.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in light snow or rain. WSW gusts
25-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt in the morning.

Friday: Sub-VFR in rain.

Saturday: Morning sub-VFR and snow possible along with N gusts
around 20kt, otherwise VFR.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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A Gale Warning remains in effect on all waters except the western LI
Sound and NY Harbor where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. For
the Gale Warning, winds will likely gust 35 to 40 kt, with potential
for 45 kt gusts over the eastern LI Sound and eastern ocean zone.
Seas increase through the morning, peaking at 8 to 10 ft.

Winds lower to SCA levels by this afternoon and then below SCA by
early tonight. The lull will be brief as another low pressure system
will bring gusty winds late tonight through Wednesday night.
Additional SCA are expected, with the potential for gales. Winds
fall below SCA levels once again on Thursday.

A SCA will likely be needed for Fri and Sat, then winds and seas
diminish on Sun. Winds increase on Mon with a SCA possible
again.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the start of next week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-340-
     345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-
     338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT