okx-afd on 2025-01-28

096
FXUS61 KOKX 281828
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
128 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
On the heels of a cold frontal passage, weak surface ridging
builds in this evening. A clipper low moves through the area
late tonight through Wednesday, dragging another cold front
through the area. High pressure builds in thereafter through
Thursday. A frontal system impacts the area on Friday, with
another one possible by the end of the weekend.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The last of the snow showers will work across eastern LI in
conjunction with a cold front.

Gusty W/NW winds of 35 to 45 mph early will begin to gradually
subside through the afternoon as the westerly LLJ sags south of
the area. After highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s, temperatures
will gradually subside this afternoon in moderate cold advection.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A broad upper level trough remains over the area through Wednesday.
Very brief surface ridging builds in tonight, but is quickly
followed by the next system. A clipper low, and associated vort max
rotating through the broader upper level trough, will move
through late tonight through Wednesday. The associated warm
front pushes north of the area tonight and warm advection may
lead to an area of light snow along and ahead of the front.
There may then be a lull in precipitation until the cold front
moves through during the day. Isolated to scattered snow and/or
rain showers are forecast, with the potential for some of this
activity to be in the form of squalls also. Another gusty day is
expected with widespread 35 to 40 mph gusts.

The upper level flow starts to flatten out Wednesday night into
Thursday and high pressure builds in at the surface. A sunny but
cold day is expected Thursday, with highs back down in the 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A frontal sys approaches from the W Thu ngt. WAA pcpn is modeled to
overspread the area, so expect a wintry mix Thu ngt changing to rain
on Fri as the entire cwa is warm sectored. With the low over the
cntrl CONUS progged to track well N of the cwa, CAD is expected to
be minimal. A change in track however could alter that, but it is
not fcst attm.

Rain on Fri tapers off Fri ngt, perhaps as snow or rasn. The area is
dry slotted so snow accums are expected to be minimal if any.

Colder for Sat behind the sys, then a Pacific/nrn stream hybrid
potentially impacts the cwa Sun into Mon. Variations in the progged
track right now, with the ECMWF slightly faster and further N than
the GFS. With this pattern, some snow turning to a mix/rain would be
expected late Sun and Sun ngt, then the pcpn ends for Mon. NBM pops
were followed.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR as a cold front passes to the southeast, then returns north
as a warm front tonight as low pressure moves out of the upper
Great Lakes and into upstate NY and New England daytime Wed.

Winds after fropa have veered more to the NW and are sustained
just over 20 kt with gusts 30-35 kt and a few peak gusts close
to 40 kt. These winds should begin to diminish after 20Z-21Z
and then quickly fall to under 10 kt by about 23Z.

Winds tonight then become light/vrb as the front returns north,
then S 5-10 kt overnight and SW 10-15G20-25kt after about 14Z.
Speeds/gusts may be higher than that at the metros and along the
coast.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

AMD possible if winds this afternoon back left of 310 magnetic.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday afternoon: WSW winds G30-35kt. Chance of rain/snow
showers with brief IFR cond at KSWF, MVFR cond elsewhere.

Wednesday night: Cold fropa with VFR and winds shifting NW
G25-30kt, diminishing to G20-25kt after midnight.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20kt in the morning.

Friday: Rain likely with MVFR or lower cond, changing to light
snow after midnight before ending. SW winds G20kt NYC
metro/coast.

Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning. NW winds G20kt until
around midday.

Sunday: Chance MVFR or lower cond mainly at night, with snow
changing to freezing rain/sleet at KSWF, and rain/snow/sleet
NYC metros/coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
Gale warnings have been replaced by SCAs. Occasional gusts up to
35 kt possible on all waters early this afternoon. Seas have
built to 5 to 10 ft on the ocean and 3 to 5 ft on eastern LI
Sound.

Winds drop to below SCA by early tonight. The lull will be
brief as another low pressure system will bring gusty winds late
tonight through Wednesday night. Additional SCA are expected,
with the potential for gales. Winds fall below SCA levels once
again on Thursday.

A SCA will likely be needed for Fri and Sat, then winds and seas
diminish on Sun. Winds increase on Mon with a SCA possible
again.

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the start of next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT/DW
NEAR TERM...JT/DW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JMC/JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT