371
FXUS61 KOKX 291525
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1025 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper low passes to the north today and drags a cold front
through the area this afternoon. High pressure briefly builds in
tonight through Thursday. A frontal system impacts the area on
Friday, with another, weaker one likely late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes, other than to delay the onset of the
higher winds by a couple of hours. The clipper system at 14Z was
moving through upstate New York, into northern Vermont, and the
warm front has pushed to the north, with a few inland
locations having temperatures jump around 15 degrees in an
hour.
The low continues to push east and will drag a cold front through
the area this afternoon. W/SW winds pick up ahead of the front with
deep mixing expected. There is very good agreement with mixing up to
at least 800mb, with many models showing peak mixing up to 700mb.
Not expecting winds to make it to the surface from the top of the
layer, but even taking the 925mb winds is enough for 45 mph gusts.
Given this, and the fact that winds overperformed slightly
yesterday, a Wind Advisory has been issued and is in effect
from 9am this morning until 10pm tonight for widespread 45 to 50
mph wind gusts. The peak of the gusts will likely be this
afternoon.
Very weak instability forms ahead of the cold front and this
will likely aid in afternoon scattered showers. For most this
will fall as rain, but locations up in the Lower Hudson Valley
could see snow or a rain/snow mix. The nature of this may also
be more squall like, similar to yesterday, but again this threat
is more for north and west of the area.
Heights start to rise aloft tonight as the flow flattens. High
pressure starts to build in at the surface. Winds gradually lower
through the night, but remain gusty with 20 to 30 mph gusts
after midnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in on Thursday and then pushes
east Thursday night. A warm front from the next system
approaches the area Thursday night. There is potential for some
precipitation from this system to start as early as late
Thursday night. If this is the case, some freezing rain is
possible for any locations that drop to freezing ahead of the
system. This would likely be the higher elevations of northeast
NJ and then the Lower Hudson Valley into southwest CT. This
threat will continue to be monitored, but for now only light ice
accumulation is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The modeling has trended swd with the track of the weak sfc low on
Fri. This will allow the llvl cold air to remain locked in across
the interior during the mrng hours, with fzra the result. The
concern is that the swd trend continues, allowing nrn areas to stay
fzra for most of the day. Dropped temps slightly from the NBM due to
an expected warm bias in a CAD scenario. There is still time for the
models to latch onto a consistent track - and when that occurs the
higher res models will be in range to contribute to the 2m temp fcst.
The NBM has high pops for Fri ngt as the sys exits, which could lead
to the impression that some decent snow could fall as temps drop.
However, the modeling has been consistent that the h7 dry slot comes
thru, cutting off any significant pcpn. Because of this, have
included the transition to wintry wx, but have very little in the
way of snow accums attm.
Dry and seasonably cool on Sat. Normal highs are about 40 for the
climate sites. Fair wx to start Sun, then a warm front approaches
and passes late Sun ngt. Some lgt snow possible, perhaps mixed with
rain at the coasts.
Thermal ridge builds in on Mon, so some milder high temps fcst and
the NBM was followed. The city could hit 50.
The next cold front comes thru Mon ngt per the 00Z runs. The front
is moisture starved so the modeling indicates a dry fropa.
Fair and seasonal on Tue, albeit windy, with high pres building in
all the way from wrn Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold frontal passage occurs this aftn.
SW winds increase to 20-25kt G30-35kt by early afternoon, gradually
veering more westerly. Peak gust of 40-45kt possibly. The winds
then shift WNW late afternoon/early evening. Peak gust of 40-45kt
possibly. Gusts gradually decrease overnight, especially aft
6Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Expect wind shift to the WNW to occur later than previously
forecast. May occur close to 22Z, plus or min an hour.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR into the eve. NW winds G20kt in the morning.
Chance of MVFR or lower in rain late at night, possibly
starting as freezing rain at KSWF.
Friday: Any freezing rain at KSWF in the morning changing to
rain with MVFR or lower, changing to light snow after midnight
before ending. SW winds G20kt NYC metro/coast.
Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning. NW winds G20kt until around
midday.
Sunday: Chance MVFR or lower cond mainly at night, with snow
changing to a wintry mix or rain.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor updates to the winds and gusts across the forecast
waters, as both have been several knots lower than forecast.
Still expecting winds to increase late this morning and into
this afternoon with the passage of the cold front.
A Gale Warning is in effect for all waters as gusts up to 40 kt
are expected today. The Gale Warning is in effect through the
first half of tonight before winds finally lower to SCA levels.
25 kt gusts can then be expected into early Thursday. With cold
air working into the area, light freezing spray is expected
tonight across the LI Sound and ocean waters. Quiet marine
conditions expected the rest of Thursday through the first half
of Thursday night when the next frontal system approaches.
A SCA will likely be needed for Fri and Sat on the ocean, with mrgnl
winds elsewhere. All waters blw SCA lvls Sun into Mon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC/DW
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT