010
FXUS61 KOKX 291852
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
152 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper low passes to the north today and drags a cold front
through the area this afternoon. High pressure briefly builds in
tonight through Thursday. A frontal system impacts the area on
Friday, with another, weaker one likely late Sunday into Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A clipper system passes to the north this afternoon, dragging a
cold front through the area. Strong W/SW winds will gradually
veer to the WNW behind the front. There is very good agreement
with deep mixing, with many models showing peak mixing up to
700mb. Not expecting winds to make it to the surface from the
top of the layer, but even taking the 925mb winds is enough for
45 mph gusts. Thus, a Wind Advisory will remain in effect until
10pm tonight for widespread 45 to 50 mph wind gusts. The peak
of the gusts will likely be this afternoon.
Very weak instability forms ahead of the cold front and this
will likely aid in afternoon scattered showers. For most this
will fall as rain, but locations up in the Lower Hudson Valley
could see snow or a rain/snow mix. The nature of this may also
be more squall like, similar to yesterday, but again this threat
is more for north and west of the area.
Heights start to rise aloft tonight as the flow flattens. High
pressure starts to build in at the surface. Winds gradually lower
through the night, but remain gusty with 20 to 30 mph gusts
after midnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build in on Thursday and then pushes
east Thursday night. A warm front from the next system
approaches the area Thursday night. There is potential for some
precipitation from this system to start as early as late
Thursday night. If this is the case, some freezing rain is
possible for any locations that drop to freezing ahead of the
system. This would likely be the higher elevations of northeast
NJ and then the Lower Hudson Valley into southwest CT. This
threat will continue to be monitored, but for now only light ice
accumulation is expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The modeling has trended swd with the track of the weak sfc low on
Fri. This will allow the llvl cold air to remain locked in across
the interior during the mrng hours, with fzra the result. The
concern is that the swd trend continues, allowing nrn areas to stay
fzra for most of the day. Dropped temps slightly from the NBM due to
an expected warm bias in a CAD scenario. There is still time for the
models to latch onto a consistent track - and when that occurs the
higher res models will be in range to contribute to the 2m temp fcst.
The NBM has high pops for Fri ngt as the sys exits, which could lead
to the impression that some decent snow could fall as temps drop.
However, the modeling has been consistent that the h7 dry slot comes
thru, cutting off any significant pcpn. Because of this, have
included the transition to wintry wx, but have very little in the
way of snow accums attm.
Dry and seasonably cool on Sat. Normal highs are about 40 for the
climate sites. Fair wx to start Sun, then a warm front approaches
and passes late Sun ngt. Some lgt snow possible, perhaps mixed with
rain at the coasts.
Thermal ridge builds in on Mon, so some milder high temps fcst and
the NBM was followed. The city could hit 50.
The next cold front comes thru Mon ngt per the 00Z runs. The front
is moisture starved so the modeling indicates a dry fropa.
Fair and seasonal on Tue, albeit windy, with high pres building in
all the way from wrn Canada.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deepening low pressure passing to the north this afternoon will
drag a strong cold front through the area. The low tracks
northeast tonight across the Canadian Maritimes with high
pressure building in from the southwest.
WSW winds this afternoon 20-25kt G30-40kt will gradually veer
around to the NW by early this evening. A few higher gusts are
possible. There is also some uncertainty with how quickly winds
fall off tonight and its possible some of these higher gusts
continue a bit longer than forecast. Expect NW G20-25kt by 12Z
Thursday, continuing to gradually drop through the day.
Showers along and ahead of the cold front will likely dissipate
and become widely scattered across the terminals this afternoon.
With the exception of KSWF, confidence is too low to mention at
any of the terminals. KSWF could see a brief rain/snow mix.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shift timing with the cold frontal passage may vary by an
hour. Higher gusts of 35-40kt may linger into the first half of
tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon/Night: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain late
at night, possibly starting as freezing rain at KSWF.
Friday: Any freezing rain at KSWF in the morning changing to
rain with MVFR or lower, possibly ending as light snow at KSWF
after midnight. SW winds G20kt NYC metro/coast.
Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning. NW winds G20kt until around
midday.
Sunday: Chance MVFR or lower conditions mainly at night, with
snow changing to a wintry mix or rain.
Monday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Only minor updates to the winds and gusts across the forecast
waters, as both have been several knots lower than forecast.
Still expecting winds to increase late this morning and into
this afternoon with the passage of the cold front.
A Gale Warning is in effect for all waters as gusts up to 40 kt
are expected today. The Gale Warning is in effect through the
first half of tonight before winds finally lower to SCA levels.
25 kt gusts can then be expected into early Thursday. With cold
air working into the area, light freezing spray is expected
tonight across the LI Sound and ocean waters. Quiet marine
conditions expected the rest of Thursday through the first half
of Thursday night when the next frontal system approaches.
A SCA will likely be needed for Fri and Sat on the ocean, with mrgnl
winds elsewhere. All waters blw SCA lvls Sun into Mon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JT