074
FXUS61 KOKX 292234
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
534 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes south and east of the area early this
evening. High pressure briefly builds in tonight and moves
offshore Thursday. A frontal system impacts the area late
Thursday night and Friday, followed by high pressure Saturday
into Sunday. The high pressure gives way to a weaker frontal
system Sunday night into Monday. High pressure may return next
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this evening. The cold front continues to push
offshore this evening. Convective rain showers with a few snow
showers inland may continue the next few hours. The Wind
Advisory remains in effect until 10pm. Wind gusts may briefly
drop off early this evening, but could briefly come back up
after 8pm as cold advection increase mixing. Behind the front
height rise as ridging builds into the region tonight, and winds
and gusts will be diminishing late. Temperatures should fall
into the teens inland and the lower 20s closer to the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure moves across the region Thursday, as upper
ridging also crosses the area and moves offshore late Thursday
afternoon. With the high generally to the south the will be no
cold air damming or a blocking high to the north. Also, with
the approach of the next frontal system Thursday night, and
mainly toward Friday morning, a deep southerly flow will be
developing as warm air moves in aloft. Soundings are indicting a
rather shallow surface cold layer across the interior, and
especially the valleys. With the onset toward Friday morning,
rain is expected across most of the southwestern section, with
the possibility of light freezing rain inland. Light ice
accumulations are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Unsettled weather will occur on Friday as low pressure and
its associated frontal system impacts the region. The modeling
has largely been consistent with the evolution of the system
over the last few days with slight adjustments to the track of
the low. The pattern continues to support a liquid event as
there is no arctic air source to advect cold and dry air
southward. The only concern for any frozen precip will be at the
onset of the event early Friday morning across the interior.
Surface temperatures will be slower to rise above freezing with
potential for a period of light freezing rain. The parent low
passing over or just N of the area support surface winds
increasing out of the SW, helping to warm temperatures above
freezing. It may take until mid morning for some of the valley
locations to fully rise above freezing, but overall the Friday
event will be a cold rain. Ice accretion of a few hundredths is
possible across the interior and a winter weather advisory may
be needed for Friday morning if current trends hold.
The cold rain will persist into the evening before tapering off
from west to east the first half of the night. Liquid
equivalent amounts total around three tenths inland to just
under an inch out east. High temperatures on Friday may be
reached late in the day once the low moves across the area,
generally in the lower to middle 40s. Colder air will return
behind the system Friday night, but middle level drying will
likely prevent any wrap around precip. Lows by early Saturday
range from the 20s to low 30s.
The model guidance continues to be in agreement on the overall
synoptic flow pattern this weekend into next week. The flow will
be zonal with mainly flat shortwaves potentially passing
through from time to time. Surface high pressure will move over
New England on Saturday before retreating east on Sunday. A weak
frontal system moves through Sunday night into Monday. Precip
chances appear low Sunday night into Monday with any notable
trend on the models shifting the parent north the last several
cycles. This may lead to chance of light rain at the coast and
some light snow inland Sunday as the associated warm front lifts
through the area. PoPs have been capped off at chance given the
weak system and continued uncertainty with timing, track, and
amplitude. Brief high pressure follows on Tuesday before
potential of another fast moving system mid week.
Temperatures will largely be near normal with the only exception
of Monday where temperatures should be above seasonable levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Deepening low pressure passing to the north will drag a strong
cold front through the area by early this evening. The low will
track northeast tonight across the Canadian Maritimes with high
pressure building in from the southwest.
WNW winds 20-25kt G30-40kt will gradually veer around to the NW
by early this evening. A few higher gusts are possible. There
is also some uncertainty with how quickly winds fall off tonight
and its possible some of these higher gusts continue a bit
longer than forecast. Expect NW G20-25kt by 12Z Thursday,
continuing to gradually drop through the day.
Isolated to scattered showers can be expected through early
this evening. A brief rain/snow mix is possible at KSWF.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shift timing with the cold frontal passage may vary by an hour.
Higher gusts of 35-40kt may linger into the first half of tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon/Night: Chance of MVFR or lower in rain late at
night, possibly starting as freezing rain at KSWF.
Friday: Any freezing rain at KSWF in the morning changing to rain
with MVFR or lower, possibly ending as light snow at KSWF after
midnight. SW winds G20kt NYC metro/coast.
Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning. NW winds G20kt until around
midday.
Sunday: Chance MVFR or lower conditions mainly at night, with snow
changing to a wintry mix or rain.
Monday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Gale Warning remains in effect for all the forecast waters
into late tonight. With high pressure building to the west, and
a cold front moving to the south and east winds and gusts will
be diminishing. However, gale gusts will likely remain on the
ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet until toward Thursday
morning, and the Gale warning was extended. There may be a brief
period of SCA gusts on the waters before falling below 25kt, and
an advisory may be issued. Small Craft seas likely remain on
the ocean waters into Thursday morning, so a SCA will be more
likely for the ocean waters once gales end. There may be a
brief break in SCA conditions on the ocean waters before gusts
increase once again by late Thursday night as another frontal
system begins to impact the waters.
SCA conditions are likely Friday and Saturday on the ocean.
Elevated seas may persist on the ocean east of Moriches Inlet
Saturday night with conditions below SCA levels on Sunday.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible on Monday, mainly east of
Moriches Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-355.
Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET