927
FXUS61 KOKX 301236
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
736 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts across the area today. A frontal system
impacts the area Friday. High pressure builds in from Southeast
Canada Saturday through early Sunday. Then, high pressure moves
out into the Atlantic with a frontal system moving across the
area Sunday into Monday. High pressure will then return
thereafter into the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
It will continue to be windy thru the first part of the mrng
with h85 flow 45-50kt and subsidence. The winds decrease rapidly
during the day as high pres ridges across the cwa. Multilevel
clouds today with some flat cu, patches of mid clouds, and
increasing cirrus late. The NBM was used for temps.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upr low emerging from invof the 4 corners tracks across the
country today and allows weak low pres to track along a nearly
stationary boundary. The 00Z modeling suggests this boundary
sets up in or near the cwa. Although warm air surging in aloft
will preclude snow chances, the weak flow should allow the
shallow cold air near the sfc to remain in place, gradually
warming from the top down or due to proximity to the ocean thru
the day on Fri. Only trace amounts of fzra are needed for an
advy, so one has been issued for the nwrn portion of the cwa for
Fri mrng. There is the chc it could be extended a bit further S,
especially for interior NJ zones, if the next round of modeling
produces higher confidence. This area of higher uncertainty was
included in the hwo. Otherwise, periods of cold rain on Fri.
Derived temps from modeled dewpoints blended with the NAMNest.
This keeps things a bit colder than the NBM. Most likely spot
for a surge of warmer air is LI if the front sets up over or N
of the island.
The pcpn tapers off Fri ngt. Due to the position of the sys,
llvl cold air may drain back into the area, resulting in light
fzra/fzdz and sleet, perhaps ending as a very brief period of
light snow. Expect snow amounts to be insignificant attm, but
there could be enough cold air drainage for refreezing along
with fzra/fzdz impacts, particularly across the interior. Most
of the pcpn Fri ngt looks to be light with the dry slot across
the cwa. Low temps Fri ngt close to the NBM with local
adjustments.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid level quasi-zonal flow returns to the area with slight ridging
for this weekend. At the surface, an area of high pressure will
build into the area from Southeast Canada for Saturday into early
Sunday. Eventually this high pressure area shifts towards the Gulf
of Maine later Sunday and eventually out into the Atlantic for
Sunday night into Monday.
The mid levels have a shortwave traversing the local area Sunday
night with otherwise the nearly-zonal flow continuing into the next
week. At the surface, a frontal system moves north of the area
Sunday night into early Monday. Its associated warm front moves
across Sunday night with the associated cold front to follow Monday
into Monday night. More precipitation is possible Sunday night,
wintry mix for interior area, mainly rain along the coast. Moisture
appears limited with this system and forcing will be displaced well
north of the area, so max POPs are mostly in the chance, near 40
to 50 percent Sunday night into early Monday.
High pressure then returns heading into the middle of next week.
Another frontal system approaches for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. With wet bulb cooling, forecast has this system
potentially with some snow for the region. Kept POPS at chance for
snow.
Forecast high temperatures are mostly near normal except for
Monday when temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 40s for
much of the region.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in today. For tonight, high pressure moves
offshore and a warm front approaches from the south and west
associated with an approaching low pressure system.
VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. MVFR
to IFR conditions will become more probable towards 12Z Friday
with initial precipitation developing with an approaching warm
front. North and west of NYC terminals, brief freezing rain
possible with otherwise mainly rain for NYC and Long Island
terminals going into early Friday.
NW winds near 15 to 20 kt sustained with gusts near 25 kt early
this morning will become more westerly thereafter during the
day with gusts mainly to near 20 kt. Winds subside shortly
before sunset.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible due to uncertainty in timing of wind gusts.
Amendments possible due to uncertainty in timing of initial
precipitation early Friday.
.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: Any freezing rain north and west of NYC terminals in the
morning is forecast to change to rain with mainly IFR
conditions, possibly transitioning to a wintry mix for some
interior terminals before all precipitation ends at night.
Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning. NW winds gusts near 15 to 20
kt during the day.
Sunday: Chance MVFR or lower conditions mainly at night, with snow
changing to a wintry mix or rain. Wintry precipitation mainly across
interior, coastal areas mainly rain for precipitation type.
Monday: VFR. SW wind gusts near 15 to 20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds gradually diminish this mrng, then more quickly this aftn.
A SCA has been issued for all waters for today, although it is
possible that the non-ocean waters could end a bit early. Winds
and seas come up late tngt into Fri mrng as a frontal sys
passes, so a SCA may be needed, especially on the ocean for
building seas. Winds diminish Fri ngt, but seas look to remain
aoa 5 ft on the ocean.
Ocean seas start on small craft levels for Saturday through Saturday
night. The seas then are forecast to go below SCA levels for the
rest of the weekend and into early next week. SCA level wind gusts
forecast for the ocean Saturday. Then, wind gusts are forecast to
remain below SCA thresholds through the rest of the weekend, with
potential return of SCA wind gusts for early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for
CTZ005-006.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JM
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JM