329
FXUS61 KOKX 310053
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
753 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system approaches tonight and impacts the area Friday
and Friday night. High pressure builds across the area Saturday
into Saturday night, then gives way to an approaching frontal
system on Sunday. A warm front moves through the area Sunday
night, followed by a cold frontal passage late Monday. High
pressure briefly follows through Tuesday night, giving way to
yet another frontal system Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Only minor adjustments were made this forecast update to
account for the latest observations and to increase cloud cover
some based on latest satellite imagery.
Otherwise, high pressure continues to retreat offshore. A warm
front associated with low pressure over the Mid Mississippi
Valley approaches from the southwest overnight. Light
overrunning precipitation is forecast to break out toward
daybreak. For most of the region, the precipitation will start
off as plain rain, however across the interior, the surface
should remain cold enough for a brief period of precip to start
off as freezing rain, as temperatures aloft will warm faster
than the surface. Still looking at just trace amounts to a few
hundredths of an inch of freezing rain, so the no changes to the
headlines. There is a chance the precipitation will hold off
until after daybreak. This would possibly allow temperatures to
warm even more before the precip arrives. Stuck with a MAV/MET
blend for temperatures, which were in pretty good agreement.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Winter weather advisories continue through 10am across portions of
the interior as rain/freezing rain overspread there region Friday
morning. Temperatures are expected to quickly rise above freezing by
mid morning. With low pressure passing over the region Friday into
Friday evening, expect a cloudy, cold rainy day. Highs will be in
the 40s.
The precipitation tapers off Friday night as the low departs. As the
precip ends, there may be just enough cold air for some snowflakes
to fall, especially across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and
southern CT. No accumulations are expected at this time. Lows Friday
night fall into the upper 20s and 30s. With temperatures falling
below freezing, some icy spots will be possible, especially on
untreated surfaces.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast, nearly zonal flow will dominant the forecast period as
multiple frontal systems impact the area with brief stints of
high pressure in between. The biggest issue during this time
will be timing, especially with the system that will impact the
area for the middle of next week. Stayed close to the NBM during
this time due to the fast flow and greater spread developing
late in the period.
High pressure follows Saturday into Saturday night behind
departing low pressure. A gusty NW flow and near seasonable
temperatures are forecast during this time. Low pressure
tracking north of the Great Lakes Sunday and into eastern
Canada Monday, will send a warm front across the area Sunday
night, followed by a cold frontal passage late Monday. A light
warm advection event is forecast Sunday night with a rain/snow
mix inland and mainly rain at the coast. While there is some
decent thermal forcing ahead of the warm front, airmass lacks
moisture and will take some time to saturate. The looks to be
a light QPf event with liquid equivalent amounts likely to be
under a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will drop little Sunday
night with cloud cover and an increasing southerly flow. In
fact, temperatures will likely begin to rise. Far interior
locations should be close to freezing at the onset, but then
gradually rise. Any snowfall accumulations across the interior
at this time look to be minor. Temperatures in the warm sector
rebound quite nicely Monday getting well into the 40s, possibly
50 for some locations.
High pressure and a shot of cold air briefly follows Tuesday
into Tuesday night, with another low track well to the north
Wednesday into Thursday, driving another frontal system across
the area. The operational 12Z global guidance features some
large timing issues, with the GFS being on the slower side of
the overrunning precipitation. This looks like another snow to
rain event, but it is much too early to be specific with
impacts. The frontal system due to the westerly flow aloft is
rather slow to pass through on Thursday as the cold front lays
down some as it approaches from the west. The NBM shows quite a
temperature spread during this time. For example there is a 25
degree spread noted between the 25th and 75th percentiles for
highs on Thursday. This theme is apparent across most locations
with a little spread at the coast.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the area drifts offshore through tonight. Low
pressure approaches from the west late tonight through Friday with a
warm front nearing the coast during Friday. A cold front moves
through Friday night.
VFR until early Friday morning, then conditions quickly lower to
MVFR and then IFR and LIFR as precipitation begins. Mainly rain is
expected, with a period of light freezing rain at KSWF early Friday
morning. There is a low chance of a brief period of freezing rain at
KTEB and KHPN at the beginning of precipitation, and with low
chances and confidence did not include in the forecast.
West winds 10 kt or less back to SW before becoming S early this
evening. A south to southwest flow continues into Friday morning.
Friday morning winds becoming light and variable across the
terminals.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments through late tonight. Amendments likely
late tonight into Friday for timing of onset of precipitation, rain,
and lowering conditions.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: IFR to LIFR with rain. A rain/snow mix possible
as the precipitation ends late at night. Becoming MVFR to VFR
toward Saturday morning across western terminals.
Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning.
Sunday: VFR during the day, a chance of MVFR or lower conditions at
night, with rain along the coast and rain and snow inland.
Monday - Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions have fallen below Small craft levels. Wind gusts increase
once again tonight, with gusts coming close to small levels on the
ocean waters, and seas increasing to 5 ft late tonight into early
Friday. So a new Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the ocean
waters tonight through early Friday afternoon. The non-ocean waters
are expected to remain below SCA levels. Winds continue to diminish
Friday night, but seas look to build back to 5 ft on the ocean.
A gusty northerly flow on Saturday behind departing low pressure
will produce gusts near 25 kt on the ocean waters. However, a
southerly swell will allow for seas on the ocean to build to 5
to 8 ft. Winds and seas then diminish quickly Saturday night
with high pressure building in from the west. Sub-SCA conditions
follow for Sunday with the potential for a marginal SCA Sunday
night into Monday on the ocean waters with another frontal
system moving across the area.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for
CTZ005-006.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Friday for
NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Friday
for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Friday
for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/DW
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW