741
FXUS61 KOKX 311510
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1010 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching frontal system will impact the area through
tonight. Strong high pressure will then build down from Ontario
and the upper Great Lakes into New York and New England on
Saturday, then pass east of New England on Sunday. Low pressure
approaching from south central Canada Sunday night will then
move into Southeast Canada Monday into Monday night, followed by
high pressure through early Wednesday. This high will then
move offshore, with another frontal system eventually moving in
toward the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface temperatures have warmed to above freezing for most of
the area that had been in a Winter Weather Advisory. Have
allowed the advisory to expire, but an SPS has been issued for
some of the NW zones for the potential of spotty freezing rain
until noontime. Temperatures will continue to slowly rise early
this afternoon, and rain coverage across the forecast area
should increase towards sundown. High temps should reach the
upper 30s/lower 40s.
Steadier rain then continues into tonight as a warm front nears
Long Island and low pressure to the west moves over the area.
Precipitation gradually tapers off tonight as the low departs.
As precip ends, there may be just enough cold air for some light
snowflakes to fall across the interior, with little to no
accumulation expected. Temps tonight fall into the upper 20s
and 30s, so some icy spots are possible, mainly inland and
especially on untreated surfaces.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A fast quasi-zonal flow across the lower 48 develops in the
wake of the departing system this weekend. Mid level confluence
over Ontario and the upper Great Lakes will support strong sfc
high pressure moving quickly across NY and New England on Sat,
passing offshore on Sunday.
Sat will be only slightly colder than today, with highs in the
30s to near 40, then colder wx expected for Sat night, with lows
from the single digits well inland to the lower 20s in NYC.
As the high moves offshore on Sunday, a weak upper trough will
approach from the northern Plains. A leading warm front could
bring some light snow to the interior in the afternoon.
High temps on Sunday range from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Jet stream overall remains mainly zonal through the period
across the northern US. This same nearly zonal pattern is
evident in the mid levels also.
At the surface, a warm front associated with an approaching low
Sunday night will have much of its energy north of the region.
However, enough vertical forcing is forecast to have some
precipitation briefly Sunday night into early Monday.
This could very well bring a light snow, under an inch, to
mostly interior locations while the coast may have very brief
snow without much of any accumulation as more rain is expected
towards the coast. A warm front will be moving across with
slowly rising temperatures expected late at night. Temperatures
trend from upper 20s interior to mid 30s along coast for early
evening to lower 30s interior and upper 30s to near 40 along
coast overnight.
Mainly dry conditions thereafter for the rest of Monday with an
associated cold front moving across Monday night. Mostly cloudy
conditions will continue. High pressure will then build in for
Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will help maintain dry
conditions and allow for clouds to decrease.
However, clouds and eventually precipitation are expected to
return for mid to late week as another frontal system
approaches from the west. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday
and an associated warm front slowly moves in. The warm front is
forecast to move across Thursday with an associated cold front
then approaching for Thursday. This is expected to move across
late Thursday night into Friday.
Precipitation chances are forecast Wednesday through Thursday
night. Ambient airmass expected to be cold enough for mostly
snow early Wednesday but then changing more to rain along the
coast in the afternoon and into the night as well. Snow remains
across the interior. Warm sector for the local area Thursday so
pretty much all rain chances in the forecast on Thursday. Rain
chances continue into Thursday night.
Overall, the long term forecast period does not show much
tightness of the pressure gradient so winds are not expected
to get strong. All forecast wind gusts stay under 30 mph.
Temperatures do not exhibit too much of a vast range. Max
temperature ranges from the mid 30s to lower 50s accounting for
all days in the long term. Only one day where some interior
spots may just reach near freezing for the high temperatures and
that day is Wednesday. Min temperatures not too much of range
either in the long term. They range from lower 20s to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure approaches from the west through today with a warm
front nearing the coast. A cold front moves through tonight.
A mix of categories this morning with anywhere from VFR to
localized IFR. widespread light rain over much of the area will
continue to move northeast. There may be a break of rain
between 15Z and 18-20Z. During this time, flight categories may
locally improve to VFR for some terminals, though coastal
stratus may keep KJFK, KLGA, KISP at MVFR or lower even without
rain. More widespread MVFR to IFR conditions late afternoon
through the evening with a more steady period of rain expected.
Rain tapers off tonight from west to east from 4-8Z. Low chance
of -SN mixing in with rain for KSWF. VFR expected thereafter.
Winds during much of the TAF period will be S to SW under 10
kts. Some terminals outside of NYC may see light and variable
winds. Wind will become NW and increase late tonight to near
10kt. Winds by Saturday morning will be NW 10-15 kt with gusts
upwards of 25kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of MVFR, IFR, and possibly LIFR
through the day and tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts near 20 to 25
kts. Some peak gusts up to 30 kt possible at times.
Sunday: VFR during the day, a chance of MVFR or lower conditions
at night in rain and/or snow.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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SCA for the ocean is in effect through daytime Sat and may need
to be extended further into Sunday. Wind gusts to 25 kt in S
flow and seas 5-6 ft this morning should subside for a while
this afternoon, then S swells 5-6 ft return tonight, and N-NW
winds gust to 25-30 kt on all waters daytime Sat between
departing low pressure and building strong high pressure.
Leftover 25-kt gusts on the ocean and ern Sound/bays, and 5+ ft
ocean seas, should subside Sat night as the high builds over the
waters, with quiet cond thereafter through Tue night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM