797
FXUS61 KOKX 311840
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
140 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching frontal system will impact the area through
tonight. Strong high pressure will then build down from Ontario
and the upper Great Lakes into New York and New England on
Saturday, then pass east of New England on Sunday. Low pressure
approaching from south central Canada Sunday night will then
move into Southeast Canada Monday into Monday night, followed by
high pressure through early Wednesday. This high will then
move offshore, with another frontal system eventually moving in
toward the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No major changes. Temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to
lower 40s this afternoon, and rainfall coverage across the
forecast area should increase towards sundown in advance of a low
pressure center.
Steadier rain then continues into tonight as a warm front nears
Long Island and low pressure to the west moves over the area.
Precipitation gradually tapers off tonight as the low departs.
As precip ends, there may be just enough cold air for some light
snowflakes to fall across the interior, with little to no
accumulation expected. Temps tonight fall into the upper 20s
and 30s, so some icy spots are possible, mainly inland and
especially on untreated surfaces.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A fast quasi-zonal flow across the lower 48 develops in the
wake of the departing system this weekend. Mid level confluence
over Ontario and the upper Great Lakes will support strong sfc
high pressure moving quickly across NY and New England on Sat,
passing offshore on Sunday.
Sat will be only slightly colder than today, with highs in the
30s to near 40, then colder wx expected for Sat night, with lows
from the single digits well inland to the lower 20s in NYC.
As the high moves offshore on Sunday, a weak upper trough will
approach from the northern Plains. A leading warm front could
bring some light snow to the interior in the afternoon.
High temps on Sunday range from the upper 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Jet stream overall remains mainly zonal through the period
across the northern US. This same nearly zonal pattern is
evident in the mid levels also.
At the surface, a warm front associated with an approaching low
Sunday night will have much of its energy north of the region.
However, enough vertical forcing is forecast to have some
precipitation briefly Sunday night into early Monday.
This could very well bring a light snow, under an inch, to
mostly interior locations while the coast may have very brief
snow without much of any accumulation as more rain is expected
towards the coast. A warm front will be moving across with
slowly rising temperatures expected late at night. Temperatures
trend from upper 20s interior to mid 30s along coast for early
evening to lower 30s interior and upper 30s to near 40 along
coast overnight.
Mainly dry conditions thereafter for the rest of Monday with an
associated cold front moving across Monday night. Mostly cloudy
conditions will continue. High pressure will then build in for
Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will help maintain dry
conditions and allow for clouds to decrease.
However, clouds and eventually precipitation are expected to
return for mid to late week as another frontal system
approaches from the west. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday
and an associated warm front slowly moves in. The warm front is
forecast to move across Thursday with an associated cold front
then approaching for Thursday. This is expected to move across
late Thursday night into Friday.
Precipitation chances are forecast Wednesday through Thursday
night. Ambient airmass expected to be cold enough for mostly
snow early Wednesday but then changing more to rain along the
coast in the afternoon and into the night as well. Snow remains
across the interior. Warm sector for the local area Thursday so
pretty much all rain chances in the forecast on Thursday. Rain
chances continue into Thursday night.
Overall, the long term forecast period does not show much
tightness of the pressure gradient so winds are not expected
to get strong. All forecast wind gusts stay under 30 mph.
Temperatures do not exhibit too much of a vast range. Max
temperature ranges from the mid 30s to lower 50s accounting for
all days in the long term. Only one day where some interior
spots may just reach near freezing for the high temperatures and
that day is Wednesday. Min temperatures not too much of range
either in the long term. They range from lower 20s to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure approaches from the west today with a warm front
nearing the coast. A cold front moves through tonight. High
pressure builds in on Saturday.
Widespread MVFR conditions will become IFR or LIFR this
afternoon and tonight, though coastal terminals like KISP, KHPN,
KGON, and KJFK may be LIFR much of the time. Some terminals are
already IFR/LIFR. There may be some brief improvements, but
largely expecting IFR or lower conditions the rest of the
afternoon and evening. Categories improve to MVFR before 12Z
Saturday then VFR from 12-15Z from west to east.
Intermittent light rain possible through this afternoon. More
widespread rain expected this evening and through tonight,
mainly before 6Z. Rain comes to an end from west to east from
5-9Z. KSWF may briefly mix with -SN before ending.
Winds this afternoon will be S to SW under 10 kts, with some
locations being light and variable. Wind will become NW and
increase late tonight to near 10kt. Winds by Saturday morning
will be NW 10-15 kt with gusts upwards of 25kt. Some gusts
upwards of 30kt possible before gusts end from around 22Z
Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of category changes MVFR, IFR, and
possibly LIFR through the day and tonight.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20-25kt. Some gusts to 30kt
possible.
Sunday: VFR during the day, a chance of MVFR or lower
conditions at night in rain and/or snow.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower in rain or snow showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA for the ocean is in effect through daytime Sat and may need
to be extended further into Sunday. Wind gusts to 25 kt in S
flow and seas 5-6 ft this morning should subside for a while
this afternoon, then S swells 5-6 ft return tonight, and N-NW
winds gust to 25-30 kt on all waters daytime Sat between
departing low pressure and building strong high pressure.
Leftover 25-kt gusts on the ocean and ern Sound/bays, and 5+ ft
ocean seas, should subside Sat night as the high builds over the
waters, with quiet cond thereafter through Tue night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM