228
FXUS61 KOKX 020306
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1006 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight. A frontal system impacts the
region Sunday night. A warm front shifts north of the area
Monday followed by a cold front Monday night. High pressure
returns Tuesday into Wednesday with a complex frontal system
impacting the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure
may briefly build in next Friday ahead of another frontal
system.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track this evening with just some minor
adjustments to reflect current temperatures and dew points.
A mid 1030s high will continue building into the area tonight.
Subsidence along with a dry airmass should yield mainly skc
overnight. Some cirrus from the Pacific to the Midwest could
start to fill in in before sunrise. The NBM with local
adjustments was used for temps, and in a good radiational
cooling environment, particularly aft midnight when winds relax,
this means lows in the single digits and teens.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The high center moves into the Gulf of ME on Sun, resulting in light
return flow across the region. High clouds will thicken thru the day
as a hybrid nrn stream/Pacific weak low approaches the area. Some of
the modeling suggests pockets of lgt pcpn by the middle of the day
with the building sely flow and llvl frogen. Without deep lift and
deep moisture, this pcpn, if it occurs, a mix of sleet/snow
grains/rain possible. Amounts very light and coverage isold-sct
attm.
The main chcs for pcpn occur Sun ngt, particularly in the eve per
the 12Z models. The NBM was used for pops. Deep moisture and lift so
there will definitely be ice crystals to work with and therefore
snow, with rain mixing in at the coasts with a warmer bl and the
onshore sly component flow. The nrn half of the cwa is therefore
favored for snow accums in the 1-2 inch range. If the sys tracks
further swd, snowfall rates should be able to overcome the warmer bl
near the coasts allowing for similar light accums there. However,
the current solns do not suggest this.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large scale pattern for next week will consist of a fast zonal
flow over the CONUS. There will be embedded shortwaves in the flow
with the first passing Monday night into Tuesday followed by mid to
late week. The pattern does not appear to change heading into next
weekend.
The period starts with a warm front lifting north of the area Monday
morning. Any light snow accumulation across the interior Sunday
night ends before the Monday morning commute and will be followed by
temperatures rising well into the 40s by afternoon. Some locations
in the NYC metro could touch or slightly exceed 50 degrees. Dry
conditions are expected Monday with a cold front passing across the
area Monday night. Temperatures do not significantly drop behind the
front on Tuesday as high pressure builds across the northeast. Highs
on Tuesday remain above normal in the lower and middle 40s.
Seasonably cold conditions return Tuesday night through Wednesday
ahead of the shortwave for the middle of the week.
There is good agreement among the global deterministic and ensembles
for a complex frontal system associated with the aforementioned
shortwave to impact the area late Wednesday into Thursday. However,
forecast confidence is low with the timing of precip and precip
types. The previous forecast for Wednesday of a faster probability
of precip in the quick flow aloft seems reasonable, but did not want
to go above chance with lingering surface ridging in place.
Probabilities are then capped at likely Wednesday night into
Thursday due to a large spread in the evolution of the system. The
deterministic ECMWF and UKMET have been the most consistent with a
warm front lifting across the area Wednesday night followed by a
deepening surface low lifting across southeast Canada on Thursday,
sending a cold front through the area. This would put the area in
the warm sector of the system, limiting the duration of any wintry
precip. The ECMWF EPS and UKMET ensemble members generally agree
with the deterministic output, although there is spread on the
timing and intensity of the parent low. The GFS deterministic and
many of its ensemble members indicate a much weaker parent low and
potential of a secondary low developing near or south of Long
Island. This could keep the region colder with wintry precip lasting
longer into Thursday. The CMC is in between these scenarios with the
parent low moving over the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday
allowing for enough warm air aloft to change any wintry mix
Wednesday night to mainly rain on Thursday.
Have continued with the theme from the previous forecast for now
with potential of some light snow Wednesday afternoon and then a
transition to a wintry mix Wednesday night to mainly plain rain on
Thursday. This agrees most with the recent model consensus. In this
scenario, the interior would take the longest to become plain rain
compared to the coast which could occur as early as overnight
Wednesday. However, it is still too early for any specifics with
impacts and amounts. The system should pull away from the area
Thursday night with high pressure briefly returning to end the week.
The high quickly gives way to the potential of another frontal
system next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds from the northwest and remains in control
through Sunday morning. Low pressure approaches the area Sunday
into Sunday night.
VFR through at least early Sunday afternoon. Winds continue to
gradually diminish through the night with gusts becoming
occasional before ending. Winds then veer NE 5-10 kt after
midnight. By Sunday morning, winds become E then SE, remaining
at 5-10kt.
Uncertainty in when MVFR cigs move in on Sunday and could be as
early as 18z. Most of the forecast guidance continues to show
any precipitation holding off until after 00z. Only exception
will be at KSWF where a PROB30 was introduced at 22z Sunday.
After 00z, a period of light snow or a rain/snow mix will be
possible.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional wind gusts possible through 05z.
Uncertainty in timing of MVFR cigs on Sunday. Timing could be as
early as 18-20z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: Chance of MVFR or lower cond at night in rain
and/or snow.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G20kt late morning/afternoon.
Wednesday: Chance of light snow with MVFR or lower cond mainly in
the afternoon.
Wednesday night and Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions likely.
Precip type snow initially, changing to a wintry mix in the
evening, then to rain at the NYC metro/Long Island terminals
late through Thursday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and waves will continue to subside tonight as high
pressure builds over the waters. Winds and seas are then
expected to remain blw sca lvls Sun.
Conditions will largely remain below SCA levels on the waters Monday
through Wednesday with just marginal SCA gusts possible on the ocean
Monday night into Wednesday. The next chance for SCA conditions
appears to be Thursday with a complex frontal system impacting the
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns thru next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS