okx-afd on 2025-02-02

918
FXUS61 KOKX 020656
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
156 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure moves northeast of the region today eventually
getting into the Gulf of Maine. The high pressure moves
southeast of the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Meanwhile, a
frontal system approaches from the north and west, with an
associated warm front moving in tonight. A warm front shifts
north of the area Monday followed by a cold front Monday night.
High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday with a complex
frontal system impacting the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure may briefly build in next Friday ahead of another
frontal system.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast mainly on track. Mostly clear sky conditions present
along with light winds, allowing for some very cold temperatures
with radiational cooling. High pressure moving into the region
with its center eventually getting to just north of the local
area.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure north of the region early today and associated
subsidence will allow for more sun. Winds will be light as well
at the surface. Then, flow becomes more southerly during the day
today and a frontal system approaches from the north and west.
Clouds will increase during the day, especially in the
afternoon.

The warm front with the frontal system moves in tonight.
Precipitation is expected, mainly in the form of snow but some
slight warming in the low levels late tonight may allow for more
of a rain/snow mix. Otherwise, for the interior, an all snow
event is expected, where near 1 to 2 inches of snow is forecast.
Less than 1 inch of snow is expected along the coast.

Precipitation shifts east of the region Monday morning and the
warm front will move farther northeast of the region. More low
level warm air advection on SW flow will make for warmer than
normal temperatures. A mainly dry day is expected.-- End Changed Discussion --

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The large scale pattern for next week will consist of a fast zonal
flow over the CONUS. There will be embedded shortwaves in the flow
with the first passing Monday night into Tuesday followed by mid to
late week. The pattern does not appear to change heading into next
weekend.

The period starts with a warm front lifting north of the area Monday
morning. Any light snow accumulation across the interior Sunday
night ends before the Monday morning commute and will be followed by
temperatures rising well into the 40s by afternoon. Some locations
in the NYC metro could touch or slightly exceed 50 degrees. Dry
conditions are expected Monday with a cold front passing across the
area Monday night. Temperatures do not significantly drop behind the
front on Tuesday as high pressure builds across the northeast. Highs
on Tuesday remain above normal in the lower and middle 40s.
Seasonably cold conditions return Tuesday night through Wednesday
ahead of the shortwave for the middle of the week.

There is good agreement among the global deterministic and ensembles
for a complex frontal system associated with the aforementioned
shortwave to impact the area late Wednesday into Thursday. However,
forecast confidence is low with the timing of precip and precip
types. The previous forecast for Wednesday of a faster probability
of precip in the quick flow aloft seems reasonable, but did not want
to go above chance with lingering surface ridging in place.
Probabilities are then capped at likely Wednesday night into
Thursday due to a large spread in the evolution of the system. The
deterministic ECMWF and UKMET have been the most consistent with a
warm front lifting across the area Wednesday night followed by a
deepening surface low lifting across southeast Canada on Thursday,
sending a cold front through the area. This would put the area in
the warm sector of the system, limiting the duration of any wintry
precip. The ECMWF EPS and UKMET ensemble members generally agree
with the deterministic output, although there is spread on the
timing and intensity of the parent low. The GFS deterministic and
many of its ensemble members indicate a much weaker parent low and
potential of a secondary low developing near or south of Long
Island. This could keep the region colder with wintry precip lasting
longer into Thursday. The CMC is in between these scenarios with the
parent low moving over the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday
allowing for enough warm air aloft to change any wintry mix
Wednesday night to mainly rain on Thursday.

Have continued with the theme from the previous forecast for now
with potential of some light snow Wednesday afternoon and then a
transition to a wintry mix Wednesday night to mainly plain rain on
Thursday. This agrees most with the recent model consensus. In this
scenario, the interior would take the longest to become plain rain
compared to the coast which could occur as early as overnight
Wednesday. However, it is still too early for any specifics with
impacts and amounts. The system should pull away from the area
Thursday night with high pressure briefly returning to end the week.
The high quickly gives way to the potential of another frontal
system next weekend.

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure over the area through Sunday morning will give way to
low pressure on Sunday. The low will pass through Sunday night.

VFR through at least early afternoon. Clouds gradually lower and
thicken, with MVFR cigs moving into the area around 22Z-24Z,
possibly earlier. Precip should hold off until after 00Z except at
KSWF where it could begin at 22Z. After 00Z, a period of light snow
or a snow/rain mix will be possible.

N winds 5-10 kt continue to gradually diminish overnight and become
NE. Winds then become E then SE daytime Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty in timing of MVFR cigs. Timing could be as early as 18Z-
20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late tonight: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions at night in
snow and/or rain.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G20kt late morning/afternoon.

Wednesday: Chance of light snow with MVFR or lower cond mainly in
the afternoon.

Wednesday night and Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions likely.
Precip type snow initially, changing to a wintry mix in the
evening, then to rain at the NYC metro/Long Island terminals
late through Thursday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --SCA just remains for the ocean between Fire Island Inlet and
Montauk Point, mainly due to higher seas. This SCA expires at
6AM EST this morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions are expected
for the forecast waters through Monday.

Conditions will largely remain below SCA levels on the waters Monday
through Wednesday with just marginal SCA gusts possible on the ocean
Monday night into Wednesday. The next chance for SCA conditions
appears to be Thursday with a complex frontal system impacting the
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns thru next week.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
ANZ350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/JMC/JM/DS
SHORT TERM...JMC/JM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC/BG
MARINE...JMC/JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS