794
FXUS61 KOKX 020943
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
443 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure moves northeast of the region today eventually
getting into the Gulf of Maine. The high pressure moves
southeast of the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Meanwhile, a
frontal system approaches from the north and west, with an
associated warm front moving in tonight. A warm front shifts
north of the area Monday followed by a cold front Monday night.
High pressure returns Tuesday into early Wednesday. A complex
frontal system will approach on Wednesday and impact the area
from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night. High pressure will
return on Friday, then another frontal system should arrive by
Saturday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure north of the region early today and associated
subsidence will allow for more sun. Winds will be light as well
at the surface. Then, flow becomes more southerly during the day
today and a frontal system approaches from the north and west.
Clouds will increase during the day, especially in the
afternoon.

The warm front with the frontal system moves in tonight.
Precipitation is expected, mainly in the form of snow but some
slight warming in the low levels late tonight may allow for more
of a rain/snow mix. Otherwise, for the interior, an all snow
event is expected, where near 1 to 2 inches of snow is forecast.
Less than 1 inch of snow is expected along the coast.

Vertical forcing with mid level positive vorticity advection
and low level omega increase for the first half of tonight.
Forcing wanes second half of tonight with low pressure wave and
front exiting the region. Precipitation expected to end before
sunrise Monday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Precipitation shifts east of the region Monday morning and the
warm front will move farther northeast of the region. More low
level warm air advection on SW flow will make for warmer than
normal temperatures Monday.

Mainly dry conditions forecast Monday through Tuesday night. A
cold front moves across Monday night. Temperatures forecast to
be above normal through early Tuesday. Then temperatures trend
colder with cold air advection increasing Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night. Models indicate 850mb temperatures falling down
to near -10 to -12 degrees C during this timeframe.

Warm front continues move farther away northeast from the local area
Monday. A cold front will eventually approach from the north and
west late Monday. This cold front moves across Monday night. Less
moisture associated with this frontal passage and outside of perhaps
a sprinkle or very light rain shower for eastern parts of the
region, dry conditions are expected to prevail.

For Tuesday, behind the cold front, a new high pressure area will
start to build in from the north and west. Dry conditions are
expected with temperatures still above normal as cold air advection
does not establish until Tuesday afternoon. Highs for the day will
likely be set in the morning with decreasing temperatures in the
afternoon. Gusty NW flow develops during the day. Tuesday night lows
will be relatively colder and below normal. NW flow continues but
will eventually become less gusty.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Fast zonal flow aloft with embedded shortwaves will impact the area
during mid to late week. NBM still running faster than deterministic
global model guidance with PoP daytime Wed, with chance for some
light snow in the afternoon mainly late. Then as the sys approaches,
expect light snow Wed evening to transition to a wintry mix late Wed
night, then to all rain across NYC metro and Long Island early Thu
morning, most of the area except well inland by late morning, and
throughout by afternoon. Light accumulations of snow/sleet
throughout, followed by some ice accretion outside of the
immediate NYC area but especially inland, are possible.

Rain through the day on Thu should taper off Thu night as the flow
aloft amplifies and sends a cold front through late at night, with
dry cond for Fri into Fri night as post-frontal strong high pressure
moves across.

Another frontal system will approach this weekend, with timing
mainly from late say Sat into Sat night. Temps sfc/aloft appear cold
enough at the onset for mainly snow at least the first part of Sat
night, then a wintry mix may be possible for the NYC metro area and
Long Island late Sat night.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure over the area through this morning will give way
to low pressure today. The low will pass through tonight.

VFR through at least early afternoon. Clouds gradually lower and
thicken, with MVFR cigs moving into the area around 22Z-24Z,
possibly earlier. Precip should hold off until after 00Z except at
KSWF where it could begin at 22Z. After 00Z, a period of light snow
or a snow/rain mix will be possible.

N winds 5-10 kt continue to gradually diminish into early
morning and become NE. Winds then become E then SE daytime
today.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Uncertainty in timing of MVFR cigs. Timing could be as early as 18Z-
20Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late tonight: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions at night in
snow and/or rain.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G20kt late morning/afternoon.

Wednesday: Chance of light snow with MVFR or lower cond mainly in
the afternoon.

Wednesday night and Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions likely.
Precip type snow initially, changing to a wintry mix in the
evening, then to rain at the NYC metro/Long Island terminals
late through Thursday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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The remaining small craft advisories on the ocean have been
cancelled as conditions are below small craft advisory
thresholds. Conditions are forecast to remain below small craft
advisory thresholds on all forecast waters through Monday with
weakening pressure gradient.

The next chance for SCA conditions will be Monday night and
Tuesday when a cold front passes through the waters. The SCA
conditions may linger into Tuesday night on the ocean. The non-
ocean waters are less than SCA criteria but could have some
gusts to near SCA thresholds.

Longer term, minimal SCA cond (seas 5 ft and wind gusts 25 kt)
may be possible on the ern ocean waters from Thu afternoon into
daytime Fri with a passing frontal system.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM