284
FXUS61 KOKX 021450
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
950 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves northeast of the region into the Gulf of
Maine today, then passes southeast of the Canadian Maritimes
tonight. Meanwhile, a frontal system approaches from the north
and west, with an associated warm front moving in tonight. The
front lifts north of the area on Monday, followed by a cold
front Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday into early
Wednesday. A complex frontal system will approach on Wednesday
and impact the area from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
night. High pressure will return on Friday, then another frontal
system should arrive by Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cloud cover is a bit more widespread than previous thinking and
likely contributing to temps running a degree or two too warm.
The flow is also holding on from the NE as opposed to E or SE.
Winds do continue to veer this morning though as high pressure
shifts offshore. Given clouds will remain overhead today, and
likely get thicker, nudged highs down just a degree or two as
well to capture current trend. Otherwise, high pressure north of
the region early today and associated subsidence will allow for
light winds. Then, flow becomes more southerly later today and
a frontal system approaches from the north and west. Clouds will
continue to increase during the day, especially in the
afternoon.
The warm front with the frontal system moves in tonight.
Precipitation is expected, mainly in the form of snow but some
slight warming in the low levels late tonight will allow for
more of a rain/snow mix along the coast. Otherwise, for the
interior, an all snow event is expected, where near 1 to 2
inches of snow is forecast. Less than 1 inch of snow is expected
along the coast. Mesoscale model depictions of total snowfall
generally agree with this gradient of snowfall.
Vertical forcing with mid level positive vorticity advection and
low level omega increase for the first half of tonight.
Forcing wanes second half of tonight with low pressure wave and
front exiting the region. Precipitation expected to end before
sunrise Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Precipitation shifts east of the region Monday morning and the
warm front will move farther northeast of the region. More low
level warm air advection on SW flow will make for warmer than
normal temperatures Monday. Went with NBM for the high
temperatures which leans more towards the cooler side of MOS
guidance due to the abundance of clouds expected for Monday.
Mainly dry conditions forecast Monday through Tuesday night.
A cold front moves across Monday night. Temperatures forecast
to be above normal through early Tuesday. Then temperatures
trend colder with cold air advection increasing Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Models indicate 850mb temperatures
falling down to near -10 to -12 degrees C during this
timeframe.
Warm front continues move farther away northeast from the local
area Monday. A cold front will eventually approach from the
north and west late Monday. This cold front moves across Monday
night. Less moisture associated with this frontal passage and
outside of perhaps a sprinkle or very light rain shower for
eastern parts of the region, dry conditions are expected to
prevail. Clouds will remain abundant.
For Tuesday, behind the cold front, a new high pressure area
will start to build in from the north and west. Dry conditions
are expected with temperatures still above normal as cold air
advection does not establish until Tuesday afternoon. Highs for
the day will likely be set in the morning with decreasing
temperatures in the afternoon. Gusty NW flow develops during the
day. Tuesday night lows will be relatively colder and below
normal. NW flow continues but will eventually become less gusty.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Fast zonal flow aloft with embedded shortwaves will impact the
area during mid to late week. NBM still running faster than
deterministic global model guidance with PoP daytime Wed, with
chance for some light snow in the afternoon mainly late. Then as
the sys approaches, expect light snow Wed evening to transition
to a wintry mix late Wed night, then to all rain across NYC
metro and Long Island early Thu morning, most of the area except
well inland by late morning, and throughout by afternoon. Light
accumulations of snow/sleet throughout, followed by some ice
accretion outside of the immediate NYC area but especially
inland, are possible.
Rain through the day on Thu should taper off Thu night as the
flow aloft amplifies and sends a cold front through late at
night, with dry cond for Fri into Fri night as post-frontal
strong high pressure moves across.
Another frontal system will approach this weekend, with timing
mainly from late say Sat into Sat night. Temps sfc/aloft appear
cold enough at the onset for mainly snow at least the first part
of Sat night, then a wintry mix may be possible for the NYC
metro area and Long Island late Sat night.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pres will move away from the area toward the Gulf of Maine
today. A frontal system approaching from the north and west
will then impact the terminals tonight.
VFR through at least early afternoon at most sites, though KGON
could lower to MVFR for a time today. Precip should hold off
until after 00Z give/take an hour. After that, a period of light
snow with MVFR or lower cond is expected, mixing with or
changing to rain late this evening at KJFK/KISP.
NE winds 5-10 kt become SE this afternoon, then SE-S tonight and
SW after midnight.
Snow accumulations should be as follows:
KSWF/KHPN: 2 inches.
KTEB/KBDR/KGON: 1 inch.
KEWR/KLGA: About 1/2 inch.
KJFK/ISP: Little/no accumulation.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G20kt late morning/afternoon.
Wednesday: Chance of light snow with MVFR or lower cond mainly in
the afternoon.
Wednesday night and Thursday: MVFR or lower conditions likely.
Precip type snow initially, changing to a wintry mix in the
evening, then to rain at the NYC metro/Long Island terminals
late through Thursday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Conditions should remain below small craft advisory thresholds
on all waters through Monday with a weakening pressure gradient
in place.
The next chance for SCA conditions will be Monday night and
Tue when a cold front passes through. These conditions may
linger into Tue night on the ocean. The non-ocean waters could
see some gusts up to 25 kt.
Longer term, minimal SCA cond (seas 5 ft and wind gusts 25 kt)
may be possible on the ern ocean waters from Thu afternoon into
daytime Fri with a passing frontal system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/JT
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JMC/BG
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM