654
FXUS61 KOKX 022237
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
537 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts through tonight followed by a cold front on
Monday night. High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday. A
complex frontal system then approaches late Wednesday and impact
the area from Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will
return on Friday before another frontal system next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track. The Winter Weather Advisory remains
in effect tonight for interior southern CT. Starting to see
lift increase across the western half of the area early this
evening and will continue spreading eastward through the next
several hours. Precip should begin becoming more widespread
7-9pm.
For the Lower Hudson Valley, southern CT and much of northeast
NJ, this is expected to fall as all snow. For Long Island,
coastal CT and the NY/NJ metro area, with warming surface and
boundary layer temps from a southerly flow, precip may start as
snow and then turn to a wintry mix and or all rain.
The shortwave has had a very subtle strengthening trend across much
of the guidance over the past several model cycles. This may be the
reason for the upward trend in QPF. QPF totals were bumped up
to 0.25 to 0.30 inches over southern CT, with 0.10 to 0.20
inches elsewhere. With these totals in CT, even being
conservative with SLRs (10-12:1) would result in around 3 inches
of snow (Advisory criteria) across the interior. For this
reason, issued an Advisory there. Higher SLRs are not out of the
question as the hi res guidance agreed on a 1-3 hour window
with strong lift maximized in the DGZ. This would lead to a
period of moderate snow and snowfall rates close to 1 inch per
hour. Farther west, across the Lower Hudson Valley, lift is
weaker and QPF is lower. This is likely a result of the
orientation and timing of the LLJ. Totals here will be closer to
1-2 inches, with isolated 3 inch amounts.
As the precip tapers off after midnight, the mid levels dry out and
this may result in a period of lingering patchy freezing drizzle
across the interior into early Monday morning. Confidence in this is
low, but will handle this potential if it increases with a Special
Weather Statement.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The warm front will be north of the area by Monday morning and deep
W-SW flow will continue ahead of the approaching cold front.
Temperatures rise and moisture increases with highs in the mid to
upper 40s. SW flow then picks up Monday evening and the cold frontal
passage is expected sometime after midnight. At this time, the front
is expected to go through dry, but some sprinkles can not be ruled
out. Because the winds stay up all night, went closer to the NBM and
CONSALL instead of the MOS for lows.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There has not been too much change with the forecast Tuesday through
next weekend. A fast zonal flow aloft with several embedded
shortwaves/frontal systems look to impact the area, one mid to late
week and another next weekend.
High pressure builds in Tuesday and appears to settle overhead by
Wednesday morning. The high likely lingers nearby into Wednesday
evening with the latest guidance slowing down the timing of an
approaching frontal system. With the lingering surface ridging, have
lowered precip probabilities during the day on Wednesday with a
good chance it remains dry during the daytime.
The model guidance then continues to differ with the evolution of
the complex frontal system Wednesday night into Thursday.
However, the general idea in the modeling is similar overall with a
parent low likely tracking to our northwest late Wednesday night
into Thursday. This will help bring a warm front across the area
early Thursday before a trailing cold front passes late Thursday or
Thursday night. Still thinking there will be a brief period of a
wintry mix Wednesday night, first starting out as some snow and
sleet then transitioning to freezing rain and rain early Thursday
morning. The wintry mix will last longest across the interior with
the NYC metro and Long Island becoming plain rain as the boundary
layer warms late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some
freezing rain could linger across the interior Thursday morning,
depending on how quickly the boundary layer can warm up. This will
be dependent on the strength of the SW flow. Some solutions are
showing a weaker parent low, which would have a weaker lower level
flow, and slower timing of scouring out the surface cold air inland.
The overall pattern however supports warm air aloft helping to bring
a transition to liquid at some point late Wednesday night or early
Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation is currently expected
near the coast with a light snow/sleet accumulation as well as light
ice accretion inland are possible. These details will become much
clearer in the next day or so.
Rain will continue on Thursday and should taper off late in the day
or night once the cold front passes. Dry conditions will return to
end the week. Model guidance is in good agreement on another complex
frontal system for next weekend. The synoptic pattern favors a
similar set up to the mid week system, but PTYPE details are less
certain at this time. Generally followed the latest model consensus
blend for next weekend.
Temperatures will be up and down through the period due to the fast
flow. Above normal temperatures Tuesday trend below normal by
Wednesday. Temperatures should warm back above normal on Thursday
before dropping below normal to end the week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak low passes thru the region tngt. A cold front approaches from
the W on Mon.
MVFR cigs will continue to roll in from the ocean into this eve. Aft
22Z, the next sys approaching from the W begins to impact the area.
Snow is expected to develop, mainly aft 00Z. A period of moderate
snow possible generally aft 02Z, except possibly earlier KSWF. Some
mixing with rain at the coasts, with perhaps a complete changeover
to rain KJFK and KISP.
The pcpn ends generally aft 4-6Z, then MVFR or lower may linger thru
Mon mrng. Improvement to VFR aft 14-15Z Mon.
Winds mainly blw 10kt thru the TAF period.
Snow accumulations expected:
KSWF/KHPN: 2-3 inches.
KTEB: 1-2 inches.
KBDR/KGON: Around 2 inches.
KEWR: 1 inch or less.
KJFK/ISP/KLGA: 1/2 inch or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Snowfall amounts could change based on the changeover to rain.
Mixing with rain is possible at KEWR and KLGA although not currently
included in the TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Rest of Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR with NW flow 20-30kt.
Wednesday: VFR with light winds.
Thursday: MVFR or lower possible in rain or a wintry mix.
Friday: VFR with NW flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight through
Monday. Southwesterly flow then increases ahead of a cold front
Monday night and wind gusts may reach 25 kt on the eastern ocean
waters as well as seas reaching 5 ft. Confidence is low and current
forecast calls for only marginal SCA conditions so will hold off on
SCA with this cycle.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean on Tuesday with
conditions below SCA Tuesday night into Wednesday. The next chance
at SCA conditions will be Wednesday night through Thursday as a
complex frontal system impacts the waters. Elevated oceans to SCA
levels may then continue into Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for CTZ005>008.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...DS/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT