562
FXUS61 KOKX 031533
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 AM EST Mon Feb 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes today and passes
through the area late tonight. High pressure will then build in
from the Great Lakes through Wednesday. A frontal system will
approach Wednesday night and impact the area into Thursday
evening. High pressure will then return for Thursday night into
Friday night, then slide east on Saturday. Another frontal
system will begin to approach Saturday afternoon and impact the
area into Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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There will be plenty of mid and high level clouds across the
area today in a fast zonal upper flow across the Lower 48.
Multiple northern branch shortwaves tracking near the
U.S./Canadian border will send a cold front across the Great
Lakes slowly southeast today. Ahead of the front, a mild W/SW
flow will back around to the S at less generally less than 10
mph. Highs will top out in the lower 40s with perhaps a few
warmer locations in and around the NYC metro. This is a few
degrees above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For tonight, a cold front approaches from the north and west.
The cold front moves through late. Most of the shortwave energy
will be displaced well north of the region and mid level dry air
will keep conditions dry at the surface. Some model guidance is
indicating potential fog advection across outlying coastal
areas. Have patchy fog for Long Island and Southern CT for
tonight.

Just expecting clouds to remain abundant with temperatures not
dropping too much tonight as the boundary layer stays more mixed
and the clouds limit radiational cooling. Lows forecast range
from the low to upper 30s.

For Tuesday, highs for the day are likely set in the morning
with post-frontal strengthening NW gusty flow then developing.
This will cause temperatures to be nearly steady late morning
into the early afternoon and then actually decrease for the
latter half of the afternoon. Took a blend of NBM and MAV and
MET guidance for high temperatures and manually lowered an extra
degree. Highs Tuesday range from the upper 30s to lower 40s,
slightly colder than the previous day.

High pressure continues to build in Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Much colder lows forecast Tuesday night, ranging
mainly from the upper teens to lower 20s.

The high pressure area centers over the local region on
Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected to remain. Highs from
NBM on Wednesday and are much colder than previous few days,
only ranging from low to mid 30s for much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Well-advertised frontal system should begin to approach Wed
night, with increasing PoP for snow throughout to start. Light
accumulations expected, with either side of an inch most places
and perhaps closer to 2 inches well inland west of the Hudson.
As temps warm aloft expect a transition to mixed precip, with
some light freezing rain on top of this snow late in NE NJ.
Temps sfc/aloft warm further daytime Thu, with a change to plain
rain during the morning hours, but not before a period of
possible freezing rain for interior NE NJ and the lower Hudson
Valley mainly along/NW of I-287 early Thu AM. Rain Thu afternoon
should taper off Thu eve, with dry cond returning for late Thu
night into Sat AM as strong high pressure moves across.

Another frontal system will approach this weekend, beginning Sat
afternoon and continuing into Sunday. Once again, with warmer
air intruding aloft at first and then at the sfc, p-type
initially should be all snow, with a change to mixed precip late
Sat night into Sunday AM and all rain by Sunday afternoon. This
system may have better potential for widespread advy snow/ice
amts given higher forecast QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A warm front will continue to lift north of the area today. A cold
front will move across late tonight.

VFR through at least early evening. Chance of MVFR/IFR in low
clouds/fog primarily for KISP/KGON by midnight, but potentially
impacting KBDR and KJFK as well.

Light SW winds this morning become more southerly this afternoon.
WSW winds aloft increase ahead of an approaching cold front tonight,
and LLWS is likely from about 03Z-08Z with speeds 45-50 kt at FL020.
S-SW sfc winds 5-10 kt expected until fropa late tonight, then W to
NW for the Tuesday morning push with increasing wind speeds.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Cannot rule out some MVFR/IFR vsby restrictions late this
evening/overnight at KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 15G20-25kt into the evening.

Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday night: MVFR or lower cond in light snow, mixing with
sleet late, also rain at KEWR/KJFK.

Thursday: MVFR or lower cond as precip changes to freezing
rain/sleet and then rain at KSWF, and to plain rain elsewhere.
SW winds G20kt mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday night: Rain ending. W winds G20kt late.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Conditions on the waters remain below small craft advisory
thresholds through this afternoon. Then, conditions increase
with winds and seas tonight through Tuesday in response to a
tightening pressure gradient between low pressure well to the
north and east and high pressure to the north and west. A cold
front moves across late tonight.

Ocean seas are first forecast to get SCA level seas along with
gusty SCA winds tonight, east of Fire Island Inlet. Then all
waters reach SCA thresholds for wind gusts Tuesday and probably
much of Tuesday night as well. Conditions return to below SCA
thresholds with weakening pressure gradient on Wednesday as
high pressure moves overhead.

Increasing long fetch S flow ahead of an approaching frontal
system should bring SCA cond to the ocean waters from Thu into
Thu evening, with seas building to 4-6 ft in the morning and
then to 5-8 ft at night, along with some 25-kt gusts. Following
a cold frontal passage late Thu night, winds then shift W then
NW, with all waters likely to see gusts 25-30 kt. These cond
improve Fri afternoon on the non ocean waters, then finally on
the ocean waters by midnight Fri night as winds then seas
gradually diminish.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EST
     Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JC/BG
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM