232
FXUS61 KOKX 040000
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
700 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the eastern Great Lakes tonight
and passes through the area by daybreak. High pressure will
then build in from the Great Lakes through Wednesday. A low
pressure system will produce a wintry mix Wednesday night and
Thursday. Another low may impact the area this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A fast, nearly zonal upper flow through the week will feature a
series of clipper lows bringing reinforcing shots of cold air
into the region, with brief warmups in between. The first of
these will send a cold front across the area before daybreak
Tuesday. There is some lift along and ahead of the front, but
the airmass is moisture-starved and not expecting anything more
than spotty sprinkles. Low-level warm advection ahead of the
front and a gradually strengthening SW flow will keep
temperatures mainly above freezing with a gradual warmup toward
midnight. There will also be plenty of mid and high level clouds
streaming in from the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Following a cold frontal passage, strong cold advection will
be ushered in on a gusty NW flow Tuesday. Expect gusts by late
morning and into the afternoon of 25 to 35 mph. Temperatures to
start will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s and will only rise a
few more degrees through the day. Gusts gradually diminish
overnight Tuesday as temperatures get back to near normal with
lows by morning in the upper teens inland to the lower 20s at
the coast. High pressure then settles across the area on
Wednesday with increasing mid and high level clouds ahead of the
next frontal system approaching from the west. Highs will only
top out in the lower to mid 30s, which is about 5 degrees below
normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There are two systems in the extended to watch. The first arrives
Wed ngt and Thu. There is no significant change to the fcst thinking
based on the 12Z modeling. Snow begins Wed ngt, most likely aft
midnight, then transitions to a wintry mix late at ngt and during
Thu mrng from S to NW. Went with snow accums of around 2 inches
across the interior, with lesser amounts elsewhere. There is room
for upward adjustment across the interior as the initial snow could
add up quickly. Also, a period of fzra is expected across the
interior, particularly nwrn areas locked out of the onshore sely
flow. At the coasts, the onshore flow is expected to warm the bl
enough to greatly reduce the chances for fzra, where more of a snow
to sleet and rain to rain transition is anticipated attm.
A cfp occurs late Thu ngt into Fri, cooling off temps again for Fri
with gusty nwly winds. Gusts around 40mph seem reasonable attm with
with h85 winds in the GFS about 40kt.
The next sys is progged for the weekend - the current modeling
suggests mainly Sat ngt and Sun. Did stick with the NBM pops which
keeps some chances for the day on Sat due to uncertainty this far
out. Again, this is a WAA laden Pacific based sys so expect another
wintry mix type event.
Another shot of cold air then looks poised to infiltrate the region
during the beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves across the terminals overnight.
Mainly VFR, however a period of MVFR/IFR in low clouds for KISP and
KGON towards midnight, with a lower chance of impacting KBDR and
KJFK. For now only have included MVFR conditions for KISP and KGON
for a portion of the night.
Light S to SSW winds for the next few hours. WSW winds aloft
increase ahead of the cold front, and LLWS is likely from about 03Z-
08Z with speeds 45-50 kt at FL020. Winds then bcmg W to NW for the
Tuesday morning push with increasing wind speeds. NW gusts 20-30kt
for Tuesday afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Cannot completely rule out some MVFR at KJFK from approx 02-05z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15g20-25kt evening, gradually
diminishing.
Wednesday: VFR with light winds.
Wednesday night: MVFR or lower cond in light snow, mixing with sleet
late for most terminals, with rain also mixed in at KEWR/KJFK.
Thursday: MVFR or lower cond as precip changes to freezing
rain/sleet and then rain at KSWF, and to plain rain elsewhere.
Thursday night: Rain ending. West gusts around 20kt possible late.
Friday: VFR. NW gusts around 25kt.
Saturday: VFR in the morning. Chance of IFR and snow in the
afternoon. Mixed precip bcmg likely at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will begin to build tonight in a SW flow ahead
of an approaching cold with SCA conditions developing on the
ocean zones east of Fire Island Inlet tonight and then across
all waters on Wednesday in a strong NW flow. Some gusts up to 30
kt are possible. Winds and seas then gradually lower Tuesday
night into Wednesday with high pressure building in from the
northwest. Expect sub-SCA conditions for all waters Wednesday.
Winds and waves increase on Thu, with a SCA possible, especially on
the ocean. NW gales possible on Fri behind a cold front. Winds and
seas fall blw SCA lvls on Sat, then may ramp up again on Sun with
another sys.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW