270
FXUS61 KOKX 041501
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1001 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build from the Great Lakes through Wednesday.
A low pressure system will impact the area late Wednesday
night and into Thursday. High pressure returns on Friday
followed by another low pressure this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
No significant changes to the forecast with this update.
Strong CAA will take place today on a gusty NW flow as high
pressure builds from the Great Lakes. Temps may still rise
another degree or two this morning before leveling off and
dropping this afternoon. The NW gusts also look to peak this
afternoon, generally 25 to 35 mph, although a few gusts close to
40 mph cannot be ruled out near the coast. Partly to mostly
sunny conditions expected.
The pressure gradient begins to relax tonight as the high builds
closer. Winds will subside, with any gusts diminishing around
midnight. A fast zonal flow aloft will begin to push mid/upper
level moisture toward the area overnight helping to increase
cloud cover early Wednesday morning. The cold advection should
be enough to allow temperatures to drop into the teens inland
and lower/mid 20s at the coast despite the boundary layer not
completely decoupling and increasing high/mid level clouds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The high will settle over the area on Wednesday. There will be
some weak shortwave energy passing to our south within the fast
flow aloft. The lower levels are dry and subsidence from the
high pressure will help prevent any precipitation over the area
during the daytime on Wednesday. There may be a bit thicker
cloud cover across the southern half of the area closer to the
passing shortwave energy with portions of eastern CT and eastern
Long Island potentially remaining partly cloudy. Temperatures
will be much colder with highs only in the lower to mid 30s.
Attention then turns to an approaching low pressure and its
associated frontal system, which will impact the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday. The overall evolution of the
system has not changed much in the model guidance over the last
few days. The main challenges continue to be with precipitation
types and amounts. However, this is a fast moving system and
much of the precip looks to fall in about a 6 to 9 hour period
from early Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. The
strongest lift and deepest moisture arrive around or just before
the morning commute with the likelihood of a period of
accumulating snow. Due to the strengthening SW flow in the lower
and middle levels and approaching warm front, a warm nose will
likely develop bringing in a wintry mix from west to east
through Thursday morning. The coast will go over to plain rain
the quickest as temperatures rise above freezing. The surface
cold air likely takes the longest to dislodge across the
interior of NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and interior CT for a
period of freezing rain mid to late Thursday morning. Surface
temperatures should begin to rise above freezing midday into the
afternoon for these areas.
There is some concern that surface temperatures struggle to rise
above freezing for some of the interior due to secondary low
pressure development just south of Long Island. This could help
reinforce a light NE flow inland. Did not go this cold yet, but
it is a trend to watch in the next 24 hours as this could lead
to longer duration of light freezing rain or drizzle before the
precip comes to an end in the afternoon. A slower warm nose and
slower erosion of cold air at the surface could lead to a bit
more snow. There is also a chance the warm nose comes in quicker
aloft, but surface temperatures remain at or just below
freezing even at the coast. This may lead to a brief period of
freezing rain here.
Impacts to the morning commute are expected across the entire
region. Snowfall accumulations are around an inch near the
coast and NYC metro with up to around 2 inches possible across
the interior. Ice accretion up to around one tenth possible
across interior NE NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, and potentially
interior S CT. A Winter Weather Advisory will likely be needed
for the interior where freezing rain occurs later Thursday
morning.
Dry conditions are likely for the Thursday evening commute as
the system pushes offshore. A cold front follows Thursday
night into early Friday morning. Temperatures look to stay above
normal Thursday night with lows mainly in the 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
After a cold fropa early Fri AM, high pressure will build from
the west on a brisk/gusty W-NW flow. Winds should settle down
Fri night especially late as the center of the building high
nears the area, allowing temps to bottom out in the teens and
20s after daytime highs from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
As the high moves E on Sat, the next in a series of frontal
systems should start making its presence felt Sat afternoon,
with snow chances mainly for the western half of the area
including NYC metro. Snow Sat evening should start to mix with
sleet and then freezing rain late outside of the NYC metro area
especially to the north/west, and change to all rain for the NYC
metro area and Long Island at first, then inland after daybreak
Sunday. Sys has the potential to bring advy level snowfall to
most areas outside of NYC/Long Island, with any light icing
occurring on top of snow that has already fallen. Precip chances
then taper off, with dry cond returning during Sunday afternoon
and continuing into Monday as high pressure builds from the
west.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as strong high pressure builds from the NW.
Winds start to increase for the AM push, with speeds 15-25 kt
gusting to 25-30 kt with a few higher gusts at times late this
morning into this afternoon. NW winds then gradually diminish,
settling to either side of 10 kt by midnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts up to 35 kt possible this afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR.
Wednesday night: MVFR or lower cond in light snow after midnight.
Thursday: MVFR or lower cond with light snow/sleet to start.
Precip should change to rain after about 14Z-15Z at the NYC
metros and KISP, by about 17Z at KBDR/KGON, and could transition
to freezing rain at KSWF mid to late morning before changing
to rain by 18Z. Snowfall amts should be light, mainly either
side of an inch, possibly closer to 2 inches at KSWF, and only
about 1/2 inch at KISP.
Thursday night: Rain ending with cond becoming VFR.
Friday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
Saturday: Chance of snow with IFR cond in the afternoon. Snow
changing to a wintry mixed expected at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA conditions on all waters today in a strong NW flow, with
gusts up to 30 kt. Could be a gust or two to 35 kt on the ocean
east of Moriches Inlet late today/early evening, but not worth
an upgrade to a warning. Winds and seas then gradually lower
tonight into Wed with high pressure building from the NW, with
conditions below SCA on all waters around or shortly after
midnight tonight.
Another period of SCA cond likely especially on the ocean
beginning Thu due to a low pressure system impacting the waters.
These cond are likely to continue into Fri as W-NW winds gust
over 25 kt and seas peak at 5-7 ft. Leftover 5-6 ft seas Fri
evening should subside below 5 ft around or shortly after
midnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/BG/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG/BR
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS