094
FXUS61 KOKX 042323
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
623 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build from the Great Lakes through Wednesday.
A low pressure system then impact the area late Wednesday night
and into Thursday. High pressure then builds into the area
through the end of the week, followed by low pressure impacts
for Saturday night into Sunday. A seasonably cold airmass builds
in for the beginning of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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The pressure gradient begins to relax tonight as high pressure
builds closer from the west. Winds will subside, with any gusts
diminishing by midnight. A fast zonal flow aloft will begin to
push mid/upper level moisture toward the area overnight helping
to increase cloud cover during the late night hours. Cold
advection from the building high should be enough to allow
temperatures to drop into the teens inland and lower/mid 20s at
the coast despite the boundary layer not completely decoupling
and increasing high/mid level clouds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in during Wednesday before shifting
offshore in the evening. Mostly cloudy due the mid and upper
moisture in place, but with dry lower levels and subsidence the day
should remain dry. Highs below normal as they top out in the lower
and middle 30s.
A broad area of low pressure then approaches the region Wednesday
night. The system is expected to have two areas of circulation with
the secondary low center passing through or nearby during Thursday
afternoon. Generally speaking, precipitation chances begin after
midnight with precip becoming likely SW to NE across the forecast
area towards daybreak Thursday through Thursday morning. Chances
then drop off Thursday afternoon.
Regarding precip types, thermal profiles look cold enough everywhere
for the precip to begin as snow. Warming aloft in association with
the approaching low center then introduces a wintry mix that will
spread generally SW to NE during Thursday morning. Looks like a
brief period of snow/sleet/rain mix for LI, NYC and the urban
corridor of NE NJ during the morning commute before a change to
plain rain. Father north, the wintry mix, which includes freezing
rain, will last longer.
As for snow and ice accumulations, still some uncertainty as models
differ on the timing of the warm nose shifting in, as well as
quickly surface temps rise above freezing. The implications would be
greater inland regarding ice accretion as the surface cold air
likely takes the longest to dislodge across the interior of NE NJ,
Lower Hudson Valley, and interior CT. Still even cannot completely
rule out a brief period of freezing rain for coastal areas, but it`s
currently not in the forecast. With that said, there is high enough
confidence that there will be impacts with slippery/hazardous
conditions. After collaboration with the surrounding areas, have
decided to issue a Winter Wx Advisory for the combination of snow
and ice accretion for interior southern CT, most of the Lower Hudson
Valley and parts of NE NJ. Looking at up to 2 inches of snow with up
to an tenth of an inch of ice accumulation late Wednesday night
through early Thursday afternoon. Plain rain expected thereafter.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Conditions dry out Thu ngt as the upr trof approaches the region and
shifts everything out to sea. It still looks windy on Fri, with the
GFS still putting out 40kt at h85. The blended sfc data looks too
low with this, so manually brought winds up including gusts to 35kt
for the entire area. Could be a few higher gusts so a wind advy
possible with deep subsidence from jet lvl. Otherwise, dry wx Fri
into early Sat with the NBM generally used for temps.
Clouds thicken on Sat with chances for snow increasing. The best
chances for the snow to break out are late in the day aft 18Z. The
most significant pcpn comes in Sat ngt per the 12Z modeling, then
tapers off during the first part of Sun. Leaned on the NBM pops for
timing, but as confidence in timing increases going forward, the
window for pops will likely shrink. Both the GFS and ECMWF are done
by 12Z Sun. This sys looks to be another mixed bag event based on
the track and nature of the low. Would expect a couple of inches of
snow changing to sleet and fzra across the interior before perhaps
ending as some lgt rain or dz, with less snow transitioning to sleet
then rain at the coasts.
Another shot of cold air then comes in for the beginning of next
week at least. Although the overall pattern generally exhibits a
positive tilt, an active srn stream could still allow for another
round of wintry wx by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds tonight and settles over the area on Wednesday.
VFR.
Winds are beginning to diminish and will continue to weaken through
midnight. Gusts should end by midnight at most TAF sites as
sustained winds settle on either side of 10 kts. Thereafter the
winds should settle mostly at 7-10 kts thru tomorrow out of the
NW/NNW.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of losing the gusts may need to be adjusted by a couple of
hours, pending observation trends.
.OUTLOOK FOR 0Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: MVFR or lower cond in light snow after midnight.
Thursday: MVFR or lower cond with light snow/sleet to start.
Precip should change to rain after about 14Z-15Z at the NYC metros
and KISP, by about 17Z at KBDR/KGON, and could transition to
freezing rain at KSWF mid to late morning before changing to rain by
18Z. Snowfall amounts should be light, mainly either side of an inch.
Thursday night: Rain ending with cond becoming VFR.
Friday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt.
Saturday: Chance of snow with IFR cond in the afternoon. Snow
changing to a wintry mix expected at night.
Sunday: Precip should change over to all rain by daybreak Sunday
except for KSWF. MVFR to IFR at times. Becoming VFR as precip ends
during Sunday afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Winds will diminish tonight with SCA conds ending for most spots by
around midnight. For the eastern ocean waters, still a chance
of some gusts to 25 kt and seas up to 5 ft for a few hours after
the current advisory expiration time of 06z, but will leave the
advisory unchanged at this time as any advisory conditions
would be marginal and on the downtrend. Additionally, can`t
completely rule out a couple of gale force gusts on the ocean
early this evening.
A relatively tranquil period will then be in place during Wednesday
into Wednesday night as a high pressure ridge shifts through the
waters. The next chance of SCA conds will be on Thursday, and mainly
on the ocean waters as a low pressure center passing through
increases the wind and swell.
NW flow gales likely on Fri, then cond improve for Sat. A SCA may be
needed on Sun with low pres passing thru the region. There is a chc
for gales particularly on the ocean depending on the track and
intensity of the low. Gradual improvement is expected Mon attm.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
CTZ005>008.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
NJZ002-004-103-105-107.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC/JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JE/BR
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC