188
FXUS61 KOKX 062201
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
501 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure departs northeast as a cold front moves through early
Friday. High pressure builds back into the area for late Friday into
Friday night. Low pressure, passing through the region, impacts
the area Saturday night into Sunday afternoon. High pressure
returns Sunday night into Monday. A series of lows pass south of
Long Island Tuesday through Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure exits northeast tonight as high pressure approaches
from the west tonight and tomorrow. A cold front from the departing
low is expected to pass early tomorrow.

Between the high and low, a strong pressure gradient will set
up tonight and will remain tight until tomorrow evening until
high pressure becomes more centered over the area.

Winds will reach their peak Friday morning into midday Friday with
the frontal passage, but will begin to increase early tonight and
remain strong until Friday evening. Peak winds will be 15 to 20
mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph.

While the precip has ended for today, some fog lingers will low
overcast clouds. As winds pick up tonight, the fog will clear
and clouds will become more broken.

Southwest winds will continue to lead to warming temperatures
through this evening with temperatures not cooling much or
remaining steady into the night right around freezing to the
upper-30s. Highs will be in the mid-30s to low-40s tomorrow.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As high pressure centers over the area Friday night, NW winds go
light and clouds clear leaving Friday evening and early night mostly
clear, with a few increasing clouds closer to daybreak on Saturday.

Much cooler temperatures will result, with Friday night lows in the
mid-teens to mid-20s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Confidence is increasing in active period with several chances for
wintry weather.

*Key Points*

*Winter storms watches are in effect for the entire region from
Saturday night through Sunday morning. Warning level snow amounts
are more likely across the Lower Hudson Valley and southern
Connecticut, with warning level snow possible across northeastern New
Jersey, New York City, and Long Island.

*The accumulating snow may transition to a wintry mix along the
coast Saturday evening into Saturday night.

*A series of lows may pass south of Long Island Tuesday through
Thursday with chances of snow.

A fast and nearly zonal flow continues across the region Saturday
through Thursday, bringing several lows across or near the region.
Guidance continues to be fairly consistent with the systems,
especially for the low impacting the area Saturday night into Sunday
afternoon. The main low approaches late day Saturday, and transfers
to the coast Saturday night. And with cold air in place, and a
slightly southern track snowfall totals have increased, especially
across the inland regions. A wintry mix is possible along the coast
as warm air advection increases Saturday night and above freezing
air at 850mb nears the coast. Also, with the potential of drier air
moving in at the mid and upper levels along the coast late Saturday
night snowfall rates will not be optimal with drier air in the snow
growth region. And, depending on the track of the mid level low
colder air may remain near the coast and dry air intrusion will
become more limited, and higher snowfall is possible. With strong
upper level forcing inland and in the snow growth region, and less
dry air will lead to the higher snow totals across the interior.
With higher confidence in reaching warning level snowfall total
across the interior, and at least advisory level snow and sleet
totals along the coast with the potential of reaching warning
levels, Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the entire region
Saturday night through Sunday morning.

A brief period of dry weather will be likely behind the storm from
Sunday night into Monday evening. Then with the fast flow a series
of lows may impact the region from late Monday night through
Thursday, with additional snowfall possible, especially with the
Tuesday system as cold air remains in place. Temperatures
through the extended period remain below normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure moves northeast of the region this evening. A cold
front moves across early Friday. High pressure follows
thereafter.

Some leftover patchy drizzle with some fog are expected to close out
this afternoon. For tonight, just expecting low clouds and fog,
mainly IFR to LIFR. Most of these conditions are forecast to improve
overnight from west to east with KSWF improving late this evening.

Improvement late tonight into Friday will be from MVFR to eventually
VFR. Slight timing differences with respect to the terminals
comparing the western terminals to more eastern terminals.

Winds at or less than 5 kts along with variable direction will
overall become more SW tonight near 10 kt. The winds become more
westerly Friday at near 15-20 kt with gusts developing near 25-30 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine the timing of categorical changes and
for timing of when wind gusts begin and end.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR. NW winds near 15-20 kt gusting to near 25-30 kt,
diminishing at night.

Saturday: VFR morning into afternoon. MVFR to IFR, at times
lower at night, with snow developing, eventually transitioning
to a wintry mix.

Sunday: Snow, rain/snow mix ending early. Conditions improving to
VFR. NW wind gusts near 15-20 kt.

Monday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday: Potential for MVFR, IFR and lower in with chances of snow,
becoming likely at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA advisory is up tonight for ocean waters and up for all waters by
tomorrow. SCA drops early tomorrow night. Winds will exceed SCA
criteria with gusts peaking around 30 kts and waves on the ocean 5-7
feet.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters Sunday into
Sunday evening as low pressure impacts the waters. Then with high
pressure building into the waters sub SCA conditions are expected
late Sunday night into Monday night. Low pressure impacts the waters
Tuesday, however, winds and seas are likely to remain below advisory
levels Tuesday and Tuesday night.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A winter storm impacts the region Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon with total liquid of around 3/4 inches areawide.
Otherwise, there are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast
period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     morning for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET