368
FXUS61 KOKX 070244
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
944 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will moves through late tonight into early Friday.
High pressure will builds back in the area for late Friday into
Friday night. Low pressure will pass through and impact the area
Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, followed by high pressure
for Sunday night into Monday. A series of lows will pass south
of Long Island Tuesday through Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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With light flow and a saturated boundary layer low clouds were
widespread, along with patchy fog across parts of Long Island
and S CT. As winds start to pick up later tonight, the fog will
clear and clouds will become more broken. Temps in the mid/upper
30s overnight should remain nearly steady, maybe drop slightly
well inland closer to daybreak.
A cold front from the departing low should pass through late
tonight into early Fri. A strong pressure gradient will set up
in its wake and remain tight until Fri evening, until building
high pressure becomes more centered over the area.
NW winds will reach their peak daytime Fri after the frontal
passage. Peak winds will be 15-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph.
High temps on Fri will rang from the mid 30s to lower 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As high pressure centers over the area, NW winds go light and
skies become mostly clear, with a few increasing clouds closer
to daybreak. Colder temperatures will result, with lows from
the mid teens to mid 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Confidence is increasing in active period with several chances
for wintry weather.
Key Points:
* Winter storm watches are in effect for the entire region from
Saturday night through Sunday morning. Warning level snow
amounts are more likely across the Lower Hudson Valley and
southern Connecticut, with warning level snow possible across
northeastern New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island.
* The accumulating snow may transition to a wintry mix along
the coast Saturday evening into Saturday night.
* A series of lows may pass south of Long Island Tuesday
through Thursday with chances of snow.
A fast and nearly zonal flow continues across the region
Saturday through Thursday, bringing several lows across or
near the region. Guidance continues to be fairly consistent with
the systems, especially for the low impacting the area Saturday
night into Sunday afternoon. The main low approaches late day
Saturday, and transfers to the coast Saturday night. And with
cold air in place, and a slightly southern track snowfall totals
have increased, especially across the inland regions. A wintry
mix is possible along the coast as warm air advection increases
Saturday night and above freezing air at 850mb nears the coast.
Also, with the potential of drier air moving in at the mid and
upper levels along the coast late Saturday night snowfall rates
will not be optimal with drier air in the snow growth region.
And, depending on the track of the mid level low colder air may
remain near the coast and dry air intrusion will become more
limited, and higher snowfall is possible. With strong upper
level forcing inland and in the snow growth region, and less dry
air will lead to the higher snow totals across the interior.
With higher confidence in reaching warning level snowfall total
across the interior, and at least advisory level snow and sleet
totals along the coast with the potential of reaching warning
levels, Winter Storm Watches have been posted for the entire
region Saturday night through Sunday morning.
A brief period of dry weather will be likely behind the storm
from Sunday night into Monday evening. Then with the fast flow
a series of lows may impact the region from late Monday night
through Thursday, with additional snowfall possible, especially
with the Tuesday system as cold air remains in place.
Temperatures through the extended period remain below normal.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A cold front will approach late tonight and move across into
early Fri morning. High pressure follows thereafter.
Cigs have improved to MVFR at most sites, but should lower back
to IFR before cold fropa late tonight except at KSWF which
should improve to VFr overnight.
SW winds 5-10 kt (a little higher at KJFK) will persist until
late tonight, then as the front moves through winds should
become W late tonight, then increase to 15-20 kt with gusts
25-30 kt after 13Z-14Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
AMD still possible to refine timing of flight cat changes
tonight. A few gusts over 30 kt possible 15Z-22Z Fri.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday night: VFR. NW winds 10-15G20kt in the evening, then
diminishing to less than 10 kt.
Saturday: VFR.
Saturday night: Snow developing, with IFR vsby expected and LIFR
vsby at times in moderate snow. Precip transitions to a wintry
mix for the NYC metros/KISP mainly after midnight.
Accumulations over 6 inches likely at KSWF/KHPN/KBDR/KGON.
Lesser accumulations of 3-5 inches likely at the NYC metros/KISP
but cannot rule out as much as 6 inches.
Sunday: Snow ending early. Cond improving to VFR. NW winds
G15-20kt.
Monday: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday: Chance of snow in the afternoon, becoming likely at
night. IFR cond likely, LIFR possible. Potential once again for
significant accumulation.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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No changes to winds and seas at this time.
SCA remains up tonight for ocean waters and is in effect for all
waters by daytime Fri. SCA drops early Fri night. Gusts in NW
flow should peak around 30 kt and ocean seas at 5-7 ft.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters Sunday
into Sunday evening as low pressure impacts the waters.
Then with high pressure building into the waters, sub-SCA cond
follow for late Sunday night into Monday night.
Low pressure impacts the waters Tuesday, however, winds and
seas are likely to remain below advisory levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
A winter storm Saturday night through Sunday afternoon should
bring liquid equivalent QPF around 3/4 inch, mostly as snow.
Otherwise, there are no hydrologic concerns through the
forecast period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BG/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET