114
FXUS61 KOKX 071101
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
601 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area today and slides overhead on
Saturday. A low pressure system impacts the area Saturday night
and exits the area on Sunday. High pressure will be in control
Sunday night into Monday. A series of low pressures may impact
the area Tuesday through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments to account
for the most recent observations of temperature and dew point.
Patchy fog remains possible this morning, mainly along the coast
but should mix out with improving conditions as a cold front
ushers in a drier airmass and wind speeds pick up. High
pressure builds in from the west through the day today. A tight
pressure gradient over the area will provide for a brisk NW flow
at around 15-20 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. Some gusts may
approach 40 mph during the early afternoon as CAA should
efficiently mix the lower atmosphere. High temperatures today
will be in the middle 30s inland to near 40 along the coast.
Gusts should diminish fairly quickly this evening with a lack
of surface heating as well as high pressure becoming more
centered over the area. Lows will be in the teens inland to the
middle 20s for the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure slides overhead on Saturday allowing for
temperatures to continue to trend colder. High temperatures
during the day will be in the low to middle 30s.
A surface low pressure system develops over the Ohio Valley
below a 150kt jet streak at 250mb. This low pressure will
progress east as it intensifies. Over the last several days,
this system has become less amplified and more progressive,
which ultimately led to a colder and snowier solution for much
of the area.
The low pressure is expected to slide into the Mid-Atlantic and
move offshore Saturday night before quickly exiting the area
Sunday morning. Despite its progressive nature in a fairly
zonal flow, a 12 hour period of widespread moderate to locally
heavy precipitation is expected, mainly in the form of snow.
Light snow will begin to overspread the area from west to east
late Saturday afternoon and into the early evening. As the low
approaches the area and slides to the south, an area of
moderate to locally heavy snow is expected to develop north of
the low center. Any localized mesoscale bands within the shield
of precipitation may allow for snowfall rates upwards of 1-2"
per hour in the first half of the overnight period. As the low
center slides south of the area into the middle of the night, a
warm nose may try to approach the southern coastal areas which
may result in a mix of sleet with the snow. If this occurs,
snowfall totals will be much less with a significantly decreased
SLR. There is some indication that some mid-level dry air may
decrease ice nuclei aloft which may result in a primarily sleet
or even a mix with freezing rain assuming surface temperatures
along the coast remain at or below freezing. Given the
uncertainty with the exact proximity of the low center, surface
temperatures along the south shore of Long Island may nudge just
above freezing which may allow for the mix in with some plain
rain, though a transition to entirely plain rain is not expected
at this time. Precipitation will quickly taper off from west to
east Sunday morning.
Overall, 6-8 inches of snow is anticipated for the northern
half of the CWA, namely the Lower Hudson Valley and southern
Connecticut. A widespread 3-5 inches of snow is expected for the
southern half of the CWA from NE NJ, the NYC metro, and
eastward into Long Island, though the uncertainty in snowfall
totals is largest in this area. More mixing with sleet or more
dry air aloft may allow for totals to be on the lower end. If
dynamics are strong enough to keep the low level warm nose
shunted to the south and snowfall rates high enough, totals may
be on the higher end of the forecast. It`s also entirely
possible that portions of Long Island approach 6 inches of snow.
A glaze of ice is also possible for the southern half of the
CWA if any freezing rain mixes in during the late night.
Winter Storm Watches remain in effect for the entire area.
The low pressure departs on Sunday with high pressure building
in behind it with gradually clearing skies. High temperatures
on Sunday will be in the middle to upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Active period of weather will continues next with week including an
increasing probabilities for snow late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Key Points:
* Potential for accumulating snow late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday.
* Uncertainty is quite high for Wednesday through Thursday as
additional low pressures may impact the area.
* Temperatures will be below normal for much of the week.
The fast and nearly zonal flow aloft will continue for much of
next week. A brief lull in the active weather will occur Sunday
night into Monday as high pressure builds over the northeast.
The high likely lingers into Tuesday, but weakens through the
day. The global deterministic and ensemble models have been
consistently signaling the the baroclinic/thermal gradient to
set up south of the area with multiple pieces of energy and
associated low pressures riding along it through middle of the
week.
The first in the series of lows look to move out of the
southeast and then push off the southern Middle Atlantic Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. The modeling has been overall very
consistent with lift and moisture increasing to the north of the
low during this time period. It looks like the low stays far
enough south that any precip would be in the form of snow. There
is a fair amount of spread with the exact track of the low as
well as if the low will be consolidated or be a series of weaker
lows. The consolidated solutions generally are further north
and yield the greatest potential accumulating snow across the
entire area whereas the further south and weaker lows may lead
to lower accumulations. There is still time for adjustments in
the track and evolution as the system is about 4 days out, but
the potential is there for another accumulating snowfall event.
Precip probabilities should decrease on Wednesday before another
low pressure approaches Wednesday night into Thursday. The
latest guidance indicates the flow amplifies enough for the
system to pass nearby or even over the northeast. This would
yield a warmer solution. However, the modeling has been
struggling with the placement of the thermal gradient as
previous cycles showed more suppressed solutions. The general
theme is that active weather is likely to continue into the end
of the week, but details on precipitation types and amounts are
unclear at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds towards the terminals through tonight.
VFR.
Winds will continue to shift to the NW early this morning. Wind
speeds will become 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt. The gusts will
diminish after 22-23z, with NW winds less than 10 kt late
tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts around 35 kt possible 15Z-22Z.
End time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday Afternoon: VFR.
Saturday night: Snow developing, with LIFR/IFR at times. Precip
transitions to a wintry mix for the NYC metros/KISP around
midnight. Accumulations around 5-7 inches possible at
KSWF/KHPN/KBDR/KGON. Accumulations of 3-5 inches possible at
the NYC metros/KISP.
Sunday: Snow ending early with improvements to VFR. NW wind
gusts 15-20 kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Chance of snow in the afternoon, becoming likely at night.
IFR/LIFR conditions possible at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure building into the area will allow for widespread
gusts to 30 kt over all the waters today allowing for SCA
conditions. A few gale force gusts are possible as well. Sub-SCA
conditions are then expected to overtake all the waters tonight
and persist through at least Sunday morning. Seas then look to
increase on the ocean waters Sunday afternoon allowing for
possible SCA conditions.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters Sunday
night as high pressure builds over the waters. The pressure gradient
then weakens into Tuesday leading to conditions below SCA
levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
morning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...DS/MW