651
FXUS61 KOKX 081455
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
955 AM EST Sat Feb 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area today moves offshore as low pressure
approaches from the west and slides south of the area tonight. High
pressure then builds back in on Sunday and Monday. A series of
lows will impact the area Tuesday through Thursday. High
pressure returns to end the week and start the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Just some slight adjustments made with respect to hourly
forecast temperatures, dewpoints and cloud coverage to better
match observed trends. Pushed back likely POPs for snow an hour
based on latest mesoscale model trends. Likely POPs for snow for
SW parts of region start at 22Z. Otherwise, forecast on track.
High pressure continues to move over the area today with
generally dry conditions and light winds. The center of the high
pressure slides overhead and moves offshore into this evening
ahead of an approaching low pressure system poised to impact the
area tonight. Highs today will be in the low to middle 30s.
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will shift east as it strengthens.
By evening, widespread light snow should overtake the area from west
to east. As the frontogenetical forcing maximizes ahead of the low
center, a more moderate to heavy snow should take over much of the
area with the bulk of the accumulating snowfall expected to take
place prior to midnight for much of the CWA. During this period of
moderate to heavy snow, 1-2" per hour rates will be possible for
much of the area, though the locations of any mesoscale bands with
heavier snowfall will determine if any locations end up with more
snow than anticipated.
As the low slides south of the area, its proximity to the coast will
determine how quickly the rate of precipitation decreases or any mix
or change over of precipitation types occurs. Models still have
uncertainty in the strength of a warm layer which would result in
changing p-types. Generally the thinking is that after the strongest
forcing pushes east after midnight, drying aloft will be able to
limit both the intensity of the precipitation and also possibly
limit ice nuclei in the column. This combined with the potential
warm nose moving over the area may result in a mix with sleet and
possibly freezing rain where the warm nose is strongest, more likely
near the coast, though possible even for the Lower Hudson Valley and
southern Connecticut. Any mix of p-types would limit snowfall
totals. A mix in with plain rain is possible mainly for the NYC
metro and Long Island as the precipitation intensity decreases if
surface temperatures warm to just above freezing, though much of the
bulk of the precipitation would have already occurred by this point,
mainly in the form of snow or a snow/sleet mix.
As the low pulls away from the area, some wrap around cold air may
allow for a transition back to very light snow as precipitation
comes to an end around or shortly after daybreak.
The forecast snowfall totals remain fairly similar to the previous
forecast, with perhaps a slight decrease in totals along the coast.
Generally 5-7 inches are expected for the Lower Hudson Valley and
Southern Connecticut where Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. A
widespread 2-5 inches is expected across the southern half of the
CWA from NE NJ, the NYC metro, and Long Island where Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect. A light glaze or a few hundredths of an
inch of ice are possible across the CWA with the potential for some
light freezing rain in the second half of the overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The low pressure pushes offshore with high pressure building in from
the west through the day. Skies will be gradually clearing with a
brisk NW wind of 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph. Highs
Sunday will be in the middle to upper 30s for much of the area
allowing for some melting of the snowpack.
THe high continues to build over the area Sunday night, Monday and
moves overhead by Monday night. During this time, generally partly
cloudy or mostly clear skies and dry conditions are anticipated
with a generally light NW flow. Lows Sunday night will be in the
teens inland and low to middle 20s along the coast. Highs on Monday
will be a bit colder than Sunday, generally in the low to middle
30s. Lows Monday night will be colder still with inland temperatures
in the low teens and coastal areas in the upper teens to low
20s.Temperatures on Saturday get up into the lower/mid 30s,
then fall into the upper 20s/lower 30s in the evening with the
onset of snow, fluctuating little overnight.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:
* Snow possible Tuesday into early Wednesday.
* Uncertainty remains high for accumulating snow Wednesday
through Thursday.
* Daytime high temperatures will be below normal for much of the
week, with the exception of Thursday, with near normal
overnight low temperatures.
A fast and nearly zonal flow aloft will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday with a more amplified trough approaching the east coast
Thursday and passing through Thursday night. High pressure builds
north of the region early in the long term, locking cold air in
place for Tuesday and Wednesday. The first of a series of low
pressure systems approach Tuesday and passes south of the area
Tuesday night. Most of the 00z forecast guidance has suppressed this
system further the south than previous runs, keeping the area on the
northern fringe of the precip shield. in fact, the 00z GFS has all
the precipitation remaining offshore, with a dry forecast for us.
For now, will not make any drastic changes to the forecast, since,
while the trend has been a further south progression with this
system, most of the guidance does have some precipitation falling
during this period. Any precipitation that does fall will be all
snow, with enough cold air in place. With a slightly further shift
southward, snowfall amounts remain rather uncertain.
There may be a brief break in the precipitation later Wednesday into
Wednesday evening, however with the uncertainty with the timing of
the lows will maintain at least chance probabilities.
With the next low pressure system quickly approaching late
Wednesday, and being more amplified and a deeper surface low, chances
remain high for additional snow accumulations at least across the
inland areas. There will be increased moisture with this system as
the low takes a southerly track and Gulf moisture entrains. With the
inland system and a strong southerly flow with strong warm air
advection, frozen precipitation will likely transition to rain along
the coast, and mixed precipitation inland. And with the warm
advection temperatures Thursday may be near to above normal.
High pressure and upper ridging build behind the low to end next
week. Another low pressure system may approach late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the terminals will slide east this afternoon. As
low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley, a leading warm front
will approach in the evening while a secondary low develops south
of Long Island.
VFR thru this afternoon, before light snow begins to develop at
the NYC metros/KISP by 00Z with vsbys quickly lowering to MVFR
then IFR/LIFR. Precip should mix with or change to sleet after
3Z. The snow/sleet transitions to freezing rain/sleet, then to
a freezing drizzle/light snow mix into early Sunday morning.
Snow arrives at the Hudson Valley/CT terminals by 3Z, with flight
categories also lowering quickly to IFR/LIFR. The precipitation
should be mostly snow, with a brief period of sleet possible,
tapering off to either light snow or freezing drizzle late.
The low exits the region Sunday morning, with improvement expected
toward 12z.
NW winds 10 kt or less to start backs SW this afternoon, SE this
evening, then NE overnight. Flow goes NW as the system exits further
into Sunday morning, becoming NW 10-15G25kt.
Airport Snowfall accumulations:
JFK/LGA/EWR/TEB/ISP: 3-5.
HPN/SWF/BDR/GON: 5-7.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely this evening and overnight with changing flight
categories.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: MVFR early, becoming VFR by noon. NW winds G20-25kt.
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday: Chance of snow in the afternoon, becoming likely at night.
IFR/LIFR conditions possible.
Wednesday: Chance of light snow/MVFR or lower cond, especially early.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all the waters through
tonight with high pressure in control today. Low pressure moves
over the area tonight. As high pressure builds in Sunday, waves
on the ocean increase to near 5-7 feet and wind gusts approach
25kt, so a SCA is in effect during the day on Sunday. Sub-SCA
conditions then return for Sunday night through Monday night
with high pressure overhead.
With a weak pressure gradient Tuesday into Wednesday, winds and seas
will remain below advisory criteria across all the forecast waters.
Then with an increasing northeast flow with low pressure impacting
the waters Wednesday night and Thursday SCA conditions will return
to the area waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Sunday for CTZ005>012.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Sunday for NYZ067>070.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Sunday for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Sunday for NJZ002-103.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST
Sunday for NJZ004-006-104>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...JM/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/DR
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW