okx-afd on 2025-02-09

376
FXUS61 KOKX 091514
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1014 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --Offshore low pressure exits the region as it tracks further east
into the Atlantic. Behind it, high pressure builds in from the west
through Monday night. A series of lows will impact the area Tuesday
through Thursday. High pressure returns to end the week and start
the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure off Cape Cod will continue exiting farther out in
the Atlantic today, bringing an end to this winter storm.

Lingering light snow showers may continue to fall into late
morning, mainly in parts of eastern Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut, but little additional accumulation is expected.
This activity dissipates entirely by afternoon, then drying
conditions with high pressure building in.

The flow strengthens behind the system as the high slides east
thru the Midwest, allowing blustery conditions to develop moving
thru this morning. NW winds gust 25 to 30 mph into late
afternoon before subsiding. Temperatures will climb above the
freezing mark across the local area, so expect some snowmelt
with sunshine breaking out by mid afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be building into the region tonight and be
over the area Monday night. Lows tonight will be near seasonal
normals. Temperatures Monday and Monday night will be nearly 5
degrees below normal as skies clear and winds become light,
allowing for radiational cooling.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft for Tuesday and Tuesday night will help keep a
weak area of low pressure to our south as it develops near the
Mid- Atlantic coast and heads east into the western Atlantic.
The right- entrance region of a strong upper jet streak will be
over us and allow for expansion of the low`s precip shield into
the forecast area. Light snow likely Tuesday night for approx
the southern two-thirds of the forecast area with a 50% chance
of snow for the northernmost zones. Snow accumulations would be
up to an inch.

Surface high pressure builds to our northeast during Wednesday
with upper confluence. Thinking is that surface ridging over
here will be strong enough to hold off any precipitation through
the daytime hours and this is supported by model qpf field
trends, but decided to leave in a slight chance of snow for some
areas. Precip is then expected Wednesday night and Thursday
with a familiar pattern of primary low pressure passing to our
NW while a weaker secondary low shifts through the forecast
area. This would send an elevated warm nose through, changing
snow to a wintry mix Wednesday night before an eventual
changeover to rain on Thursday as enough warm air pushes in.
Right now it appears that snow/sleet accumulations would be on
the light side before the changeover to rain. Can`t rule out a
little freezing rain well NW of the city either.

Colder air filters back in from the NW Thursday night as high
pressure builds back in behind the departing storm with
lingering rain showers at the coast and snow showers or mixed
rain/snow showers inland. Dry weather then expected for Friday
and Friday night with high pressure in control. Another storm
may then bring a wintry mix to the area by the end of Saturday.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Low pressure southeast of the area tracks northeast today with
high pressure building in from the west. High pressure will
build more into the region later this afternoon and through
tonight.

Precipitation has ended but MVFR to localized IFR stratus
ceilings remain late this morning into the start of the
afternoon. VFR expected to return by early to mid afternoon as
the lower stratus scatters out.

Winds eventually becoming NW by late morning into afternoon with
speeds increasing 10-15G20-25kt. Winds diminish this evening as
high pressure builds in from the west.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for timing of VFR return.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Chance of snow in the afternoon/night, mainly at the
coastal terminals. IFR/LIFR conditions possible.

Wednesday: Slight chance of light snow/MVFR or lower conditions
at the coastal terminals early.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR in a wintry mix to rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Increasing northwest flow today allows gusts 25 to 30 kt to
develop on the ocean waters this morning behind deepening
offshore low pressure. Occasional 25 kt gusts on the non ocean
waters.

Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters
starting at 11 AM, and ending west to east this evening and
into the overnight as high pressure builds in from the west, and
winds diminish. With the high in control through Monday night
winds and seas remain below advisory levels. And, with a weak
pressure gradient continuing Tuesday into Wednesday sub SCA
conditions continue. An onshore flow then increases Wednesday
night into Thursday morning with the approach of low pressure
approaching from the south and west. Advisory-level gusts
anticipated on all waters during this period with even a chance
of a gust or two approaching gale force for a brief period on
the ocean waters. Winds then shift offshore Thursday afternoon
after a brief lull before increasing once again Thursday night
with SCA conditions probable on all waters.-- End Changed Discussion --

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --

SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...DR/MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC/JM
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET