531
FXUS61 KOKX 091802
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
102 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore low pressure exits the region as it tracks further east
into the Atlantic. Behind it, high pressure builds in from the west
through Monday night. A series of lows will impact the area Tuesday
through Thursday. High pressure returns to end the week and start
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure off Cape Cod will continue exiting farther out in
the Atlantic today, bringing an end to this winter storm.
Conditions have dried out and the remainder of the day will
remain so with high pressure beginning to build in from the
west. The flow has strengthened behind the system as the high
slides east thru the Midwest, and will continue to see NW winds
gust 25 mph into late afternoon before subsiding.
Temperatures have been having struggling to climb with the
fresh snowpack and lingering overcast skies,and have lowered
highs this afternoon several degrees in response. Breaks in the
clouds should allow peeks of sun before the day is out.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be building into the region tonight and be
over the area Monday night. Lows tonight will be near seasonal
normals. Temperatures Monday and Monday night will be nearly 5
degrees below normal as skies clear and winds become light,
allowing for radiational cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft for Tuesday and Tuesday night will help keep a
weak area of low pressure to our south as it develops near the
Mid- Atlantic coast and heads east into the western Atlantic.
The right- entrance region of a strong upper jet streak will be
over us and allow for expansion of the low`s precip shield into
the forecast area. Light snow likely Tuesday night for approx
the southern two-thirds of the forecast area with a 50% chance
of snow for the northernmost zones. Snow accumulations would be
up to an inch.
Surface high pressure builds to our northeast during Wednesday
with upper confluence. Thinking is that surface ridging over
here will be strong enough to hold off any precipitation through
the daytime hours and this is supported by model qpf field
trends, but decided to leave in a slight chance of snow for some
areas. Precip is then expected Wednesday night and Thursday
with a familiar pattern of primary low pressure passing to our
NW while a weaker secondary low shifts through the forecast
area. This would send an elevated warm nose through, changing
snow to a wintry mix Wednesday night before an eventual
changeover to rain on Thursday as enough warm air pushes in.
Right now it appears that snow/sleet accumulations would be on
the light side before the changeover to rain. Can`t rule out a
little freezing rain well NW of the city either.
Colder air filters back in from the NW Thursday night as high
pressure builds back in behind the departing storm with
lingering rain showers at the coast and snow showers or mixed
rain/snow showers inland. Dry weather then expected for Friday
and Friday night with high pressure in control. Another storm
may then bring a wintry mix to the area by the end of Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure moves farther away southeast of Canadian Maritimes
as high pressure moves closer to the local area from the west.
Stratus scattering out but some MVFR ceilings remain, which are
expected to scatter out by 20-21Z. Some low end VFR stratus
(around 3.5 to 5 kft) then until evening before further
scattering out. VFR then remains for the rest of the TAF period.
Winds will be NW near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt. NW winds
subside tonight to near 5-10 kt and then pick back up to near
10-12 kt Monday with some gusts 15-20 kt developing in the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for timing of VFR return. Amendments possible
for timing of gusts which could be 1-2 hours different from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt subsiding by evening.
Tuesday: Increasing chance of snow afternoon into night,
eventually becoming likely, mainly at the coastal terminals.
IFR/LIFR conditions possible.
Wednesday: Chance of snow with IFR/MVFR early. Decreasing
chances of snow during the day with potential return of VFR.
However, another chance of snow with IFR to MVFR at night.
Potential for wintry mix late at night with IFR to MVFR.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR in a wintry mix to rain. NW wind gusts 15-20
kt developing at night.
Friday: Mainly VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Northwest flow gusts 25 to 30 kt today on the ocean waters
behind deepening offshore low pressure. Occasional 25 kt gusts
on the non ocean waters.
Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters into
this evening and into the overnight before high pressure builds
in from the west and winds diminish. With the high in control
through Monday night winds and seas remain below advisory
levels. And, with a weak pressure gradient continuing Tuesday
into Wednesday sub SCA conditions continue. An onshore flow then
increases Wednesday night into Thursday morning with the
approach of low pressure approaching from the south and west.
Advisory-level gusts anticipated on all waters during this
period with even a chance of a gust or two approaching gale
force for a brief period on the ocean waters. Winds then shift
offshore Thursday afternoon after a brief lull before increasing
once again Thursday night with SCA conditions probable on all
waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MET