867
FXUS61 KOKX 092054
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
354 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore low pressure exits the region as it tracks further east
into the Atlantic. Behind it, high pressure builds in from the west
through Monday night. A series of lows will impact the area Tuesday
through Thursday. High pressure returns to end the week and start
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure continues to exit well out into the Atlantic this
evening, with surface high pressure over the Central US building
east.
Decreasing winds and some clearing with the building high this
evening, maintaining dry conditions. Skies won`t completely clear
though as a passing wave well to the south will introduce some mid
level clouds overnight.
Went a couple of degrees below consensus with the fresh snowpack,
similar to how this afternoon underachieved guidance. Overnight lows
range from the low to mid 20s along the coast to the teens inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to build into the region from the Midwest
Monday.
Skies will feature more sun than on Sunday, though sct cu
development in the afternoon should preclude entirely sunny skies.
Conditions remain dry. Temperatures top out in the mid 30s for
most with the BL mixing to about 850 mb. The light snowpack will
likely continue to constrain temps a bit, so went a couple of
degrees cooler than blended guidance.
The high moves overhead Monday night and winds lighten or calm.
Temperatures fall back a few degrees more than recent nights, but
incoming high level moisture well ahead of the next system may limit
more efficient radiative cooling. Overnight lows progged in the low
teens well inland, to low 20s along the coast.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Zonal flow aloft for Tuesday and Tuesday night will help keep a weak
area of low pressure to our south as it develops near the Mid-
Atlantic coast and heads east into the western Atlantic. The right-
entrance region of a strong upper jet streak will be over us and
allow for expansion of the low`s precip shield into the forecast
area. Light snow likely Tuesday night for approx the southern two-
thirds of the forecast area with a 50% chance of snow for the
northernmost zones. Snow accumulations would be up to an inch.
Surface high pressure builds to our northeast during Wednesday with
upper confluence. Thinking is that surface ridging over here will be
strong enough to hold off any precipitation through the daytime
hours and this is supported by model qpf field trends, but decided
to leave in a slight chance of snow for some areas. Precip is then
expected Wednesday night and Thursday with a familiar pattern of
primary low pressure passing to our NW while a weaker secondary low
shifts through the forecast area. This would send an elevated warm
nose through, changing snow to a wintry mix Wednesday night before
an eventual changeover to rain on Thursday as enough warm air pushes
in. Right now it appears that snow/sleet accumulations would be on
the light side before the changeover to rain. Can`t rule out a
little freezing rain well NW of the city either.
Colder air filters back in from the NW Thursday night as high
pressure builds back in behind the departing storm with lingering
rain showers at the coast and snow showers or mixed rain/snow
showers inland. Dry weather then expected for Friday and Friday
night with high pressure in control. Another storm may then bring a
wintry mix to the area by the end of Saturday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure moves farther away southeast of Canadian Maritimes
as high pressure moves closer to the local area from the west.
Some low end VFR stratus (around 3.5 to 5 kft) scatter out by early
this evening. VFR expected through the TAF period.
Winds will be NW near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt. NW winds
subside tonight to near 5-10 kt and then pick back up to near
10-12 kt Monday with some gusts 15-20 kt developing in the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for timing of gusts which could be 1-2 hours
different from TAF. Gusts Monday afternoon may very well just be
intermittent.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Monday: VFR. Some NW wind gusts 15-20 kt subsiding by evening.
Tuesday: VFR initially and mainly dry during the day. Increasing
chance of snow at night, eventually becoming likely, mainly at the
coastal terminals. IFR/LIFR conditions possible.
Wednesday: Chance of snow with IFR/MVFR early. Decreasing
chances of snow during the day with potential return of VFR.
However, another chance of snow/wintry mix with IFR to MVFR at
night. E gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and at night along coast.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR in a wintry mix to rain mainly during the day. NW
wind gusts 15-20 kt developing at night.
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters into this
evening with northwest gusts 25 to 30 kt and seas between 5 and 7
ft. The flow lightens tonight as high pressure builds in and allows
seas to lower as well. Thereafter, sub SCA conditions expected
on all waters thru Monday night.
Winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria across all
the forecast waters with a weak pressure gradient Tuesday into
Wednesday. An onshore flow then increases Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with the approach of low pressure approaching
from the south and west. Advisory-level gusts anticipated on all
waters during this period with even a chance of a gust or two
approaching gale force for a brief period on the ocean waters.
Winds then shift offshore Thursday afternoon after a brief lull
before increasing once again Thursday night with SCA conditions
probable on all waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR