734
FXUS61 KOKX 092251
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
551 PM EST Sun Feb 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Offshore low pressure exits the region as it tracks further east
into the Atlantic. Behind it, high pressure builds in from the west
through Monday night. A series of lows will impact the area Tuesday
through the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The forecast is mainly on track with minor adjustments made to the
hourly forecast. Have issued a Special Weather Statement to address
the potential of slippery surfaces for tonight into the Monday
morning commute as refreezing of melted snow/sleet occurs.
Low pressure continues to exit well out into the Atlantic this
evening, with surface high pressure over the Central US building
east.
Decreasing winds and some clearing with the building high this
evening, maintaining dry conditions. Skies won`t completely clear
though as a passing wave well to the south will introduce some mid
level clouds overnight.
Went a couple of degrees below consensus with the fresh snowpack,
similar to how this afternoon underachieved guidance. Overnight lows
range from the low to mid 20s along the coast to the teens inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to build into the region from the Midwest
Monday.
Skies will feature more sun than on Sunday, though sct cu
development in the afternoon should preclude entirely sunny skies.
Conditions remain dry. Temperatures top out in the mid 30s for
most with the BL mixing to about 850 mb. The light snowpack will
likely continue to constrain temps a bit, so went a couple of
degrees cooler than blended guidance.
The high moves overhead Monday night and winds lighten or calm.
Temperatures fall back a few degrees more than recent nights, but
incoming high level moisture well ahead of the next system may limit
more efficient radiative cooling. Overnight lows progged in the low
teens well inland, to low 20s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Zonal flow aloft for Tuesday and Tuesday night will help keep a weak
area of low pressure to our south as it develops near the Mid-
Atlantic coast and heads east into the western Atlantic. The right-
entrance region of a strong upper jet streak will be over us and
allow for expansion of the low`s precip shield into the forecast
area. Light snow likely Tuesday night for approx the southern half
of the forecast area with a 40-50% chance of snow for the northern
half. Snow accumulations up to 2 inches expected.
Surface high pressure builds slightly to our northeast during
Wednesday with upper confluence. Thinking is that surface ridging
over here will be strong enough to hold off any precipitation
through the daytime hours, but decided to leave in a slight chance
of snow for some areas. Precip is then expected Wednesday night and
Thursday with a familiar pattern of primary low pressure passing to
our NW while a weaker secondary low shifts nearby or through the
forecast area. This would send an elevated warm nose through,
changing snow to a wintry mix Wednesday night before an eventual
changeover to rain on Thursday as enough warm air pushes in. Right
now it appears that snow/sleet accumulations would be on the light
side before the changeover to rain. Can`t rule out a little freezing
rain north and west of the city either.
Colder air filters back in from the NW Thursday night as high
pressure builds back in behind the departing storm. Dry weather will
be likely for this period as models have trended faster with the
storm. Dry weather then remains for Friday and Friday night with
high pressure in control. Another storm then likely brings a wintry
mix possibly by the end of the day Saturday, but more likely
Saturday night and Sunday. Not so sure that this will be another
case of a primary/secondary low center bringing in a warm nose
aloft, so kept precip types simplified to rain, snow or a mix of the
two.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure moves farther away southeast of Canadian Maritimes
as high pressure moves closer to the local area from the west.
Some low end VFR stratus (around 3.5 to 5 kft) scatter out by early
this evening. VFR expected through the TAF period.
Winds will be NW near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20-25 kt. NW winds
subside tonight to near 5-10 kt and then pick back up to near
10-12 kt Monday with some gusts 15-20 kt developing in the
afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for timing of gusts which could be 1-2 hours
different from TAF. Gusts Monday afternoon may very well just be
intermittent.
.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Late Monday: VFR. Some NW wind gusts 15-20 kt subsiding by evening.
Tuesday: VFR initially and mainly dry during the day. Increasing
chance of snow at night, eventually becoming likely, mainly at the
coastal terminals. IFR/LIFR conditions possible.
Wednesday: Chance of snow with IFR/MVFR early. Decreasing
chances of snow during the day with potential return of VFR.
However, another chance of snow/wintry mix with IFR to MVFR at
night. E gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and at night along coast.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR in a wintry mix to rain mainly during the day. NW
wind gusts 15-20 kt developing at night.
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on the ocean waters into this
evening with northwest gusts 25 to 30 kt and seas between 3 and 6
ft. The flow lightens tonight as high pressure builds in and allows
seas to lower as well. Thereafter, sub SCA conditions expected on
all waters through Wednesday. An onshore flow increases Wednesday
night into Thursday morning with the approach of low pressure
approaching from the south and west. Advisory-level gusts
anticipated on all waters during this period. Winds then shift
offshore Thursday afternoon after a brief lull before increasing
once again Thursday night with SCA conditions probable on all
waters. Winds weaken on Friday with advisory conditions remaining
mostly on the ocean waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...JC/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR