143
FXUS61 KOKX 101426
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
926 AM EST Mon Feb 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region through tonight, and moves
offshore early Tuesday. A series of lows will then impact the
area Tuesday night through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tranquil weather is expected today as high pressure builds in
slowly from the west. Mid and high clouds across the region this
morning will move east in the near zonal flow, with a drier
airmass moving in. Lower levels will remain moist with strato cu
developing. A cold airmass and the snowpack will keep
temperatures a few degrees below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight the high moves overhead, and then offshore early Tuesday
morning. With winds becoming light and skies nearly clear,
especially early, as high clouds move in toward Tuesday
morning, and the snowpack will allow temperatures to fall into
the teens across the interior and the normally colder areas of
Long Island.
Tuesday the high continues to move off the northeast coast and a
weak wave of low pressure approaches from the southwest. Another
high builds across southern Canada. The low tracks well to the
south Tuesday night with a period of light snow across the
region Tuesday night. Little to no snow will fall across the
northern areas, with the highest snow totals across the New York
City metro and Long Island where around 2 inches of snow is
possible. The strength of the high will determine the track of
the low and a slightly farther north track will result in a
little more snow along the coast. The system will be relatively
quick moving as nearly zonal flow persists.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much change to the forecast in the long term. Stuck fairly close
to NBM/previous forecast.
Low pressure passing south of the region departs early
Wednesday morning. Any light snow comes to an end early.
Surface high pressure builds slightly to our northeast during
Wednesday with upper confluence. Surface ridging should be
strong enough to hold off any precipitation through the daytime
hours, however, will continue to leave a slight chance of snow
for some areas. Precip is then expected Wednesday night and
Thursday with a familiar pattern of primary low pressure passing
to our NW while a weaker secondary low shifts nearby or through
the forecast area. This would send an elevated warm nose
through, changing snow to a wintry mix Wednesday night before an
eventual changeover to rain on Thursday as enough warm air
pushes in. Right now it appears that snow/sleet accumulations
would be on the light side before the changeover to rain. Can`t
rule out a little freezing rain north and west of the city
either.
Colder air filters back in from the NW Thursday night as high
pressure builds back in behind the departing storm. Dry weather
will be likely for this period as models have trended faster
with the storm. Dry weather then remains for Friday and Friday
night with high pressure in control. Another storm then likely
brings a wintry mix possibly by the end of the day Saturday, but
more likely Saturday night and Sunday. Not so sure that this
will be another case of a primary/secondary low center bringing
in a warm nose aloft, so kept precip types simplified to rain,
snow or a mix of the two.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in from the west today.
VFR expected through the TAF period.
W/NW winds less than 10 kt early this morning become purely NW after
daybreak, increasing to 10-14 kt. Gusts 15-20 kt look occasional
late morning into the early afternoon. Winds diminish early
Monday evening with high pressure building in from the west.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts 15-20 kt possible through 20z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR during the day. Snow at night, especially,
at the coastal terminals. IFR/LIFR conditions possible.
Wednesday: Chance of snow with IFR/MVFR early. Brief return to
VFR possible. However, another chance of snow/wintry mix with
IFR to MVFR at night. E gusts 15-20 kt afternoon and at night
along coast.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR in a wintry mix to rain mainly during the day. NW
wind gusts 15-20 kt developing at night.
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 15-20 kt during the day.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas with this update.
With a weak pressure gradient force across the waters today
through Tuesday night winds and seas will remain below advisory
levels across the forecast waters.
An easterly flow on the area waters may result in some marginal
small craft conditions on the ocean waters Wednesday.
A better chance of small craft conditions occurs Wednesday night
into Thursday morning as low pressure passes over the area waters.
Advisory-level gusts anticipated on all waters during this period.
Winds then shift offshore Thursday afternoon after a brief lull
before increasing once again Thursday night with SCA conditions
probable on all waters. Winds weaken on Friday with advisory
conditions remaining mostly on the ocean waters. Another round of
SCA conditions are expected over the weekend.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET/JT
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET