352
FXUS61 KOKX 131203
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
703 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and its associated cold front lifts north of the area
as a cold front pivots through late this afternoon. A large dome of
high pressure over the nation`s midsection builds tonight and
Friday, before settling over the area Friday night. Another
storm system then impacts the area later Saturday into Sunday.
High pressure slowly builds back in early next week. Low
pressure may impact the area for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning the Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
only for Orange and Putnam Counties as most temperatures have
been right at freezing or just below. An SPS replaces the
advisory for only W. Passaic, and No. Fairfield, No. New Haven,
and No. Middlesex in CT for only a few hours where a few
isolated pockets of freezing rain and icy spots may persist,
especially on a few of the less traveled roadways.
After a few localized pockets of freezing rain across far
northern sections of the interior, look for all rain across the
region through the entire mid to late morning. The mid levels
dry out quickly later this morning as low pressure and its
associated warm front begin to pull north of the area. The
initial cold front washes out over the area as the winds go from
SW behind the warm front for the morning and early afternoon,
to a more W direction. By very late in the afternoon and into
the early evening the winds then become more NW as the main cold
front pushes through.
For tonight the winds will be gusty, with a few peak gusts
immediately behind the front possibly getting to 35 mph. Otherwise
expect 25 to 35 mph gusts tonight with strong mixing on more of a NW
flow with strong cold advection. Skies will be clear as temperatures
will turn sharply colder late in the evening and into the overnight.
Temperatures drop below freezing shortly after midnight in most
places, with widespread 20s towards daybreak. The gusty NW winds
will make it feel like it is in the teens region wide by early
Friday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A brisk start to the day with a good deal of sunshine. The winds
will gust to around 30 mph through midday, with the winds
diminishing for later in the afternoon. With complete sunshine for
much of the day, look for a few high clouds late in the day.
Temperatures should average a good 5 or so degrees below normal with
middle and upper 30s.
For Friday night look for increasing high and mid level clouds,
especially after midnight. With the high settling over the area look
for the winds to go calm. A tricky temperature forecast as enough
high clouds could affect minimum temperatures some. If less cloud
cover gets in then radiational cooling would be rather impressive
with calm winds. For now will take a middle of the road approach
with low temperatures, with mainly lower and middle 20s for the
metro and coast, and some teens across the rural and interior
sections.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another amplifying southern branch storm system will lift out of
the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday, tracking to the north and
west of the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. At the
same time, the polar vortex descends south and east out of central
Canada. Shortwave energy out ahead of it interacts with the
aforementioned low with explosive deepening Sunday into Sunday
night. There is some uncertainty with how quickly the cold air
to start on Saturday retreats to the northeast, but strong
thermal forcing will produce widespread precipitation across the
area beginning Saturday afternoon and night. This will likely
begin as snow everywhere with a changeover from south to north
starting at the coast late afternoon with most locations
becoming all rain around or shortly after midnight. There could
be a few pockets of surface temperatures around freezing well
north and west of the NYC metro until around daybreak. Thus,
looking at the potential for an advisory level event inland
with a combination of snow and ice. Coastal locations are
expected to see a quicker changeover with perhaps a light
snowfall accumulation during the afternoon hours Saturday.
For Sunday, the area gets into the warm sector as low pressure
passes to the north and west with a gusty southerly flow, especially
for coastal locations. There is even a low chance at this time
for an embedded thunderstorms just south of the area in warm
conveyor belt showers. This will be refined as we get closer to
the event. Highs on Sunday in the warm sector are forecast to
get will into the 40s and possibly the lower 50s across NYC and
LI. A strong cold front will then pass through late Sunday
afternoon and evening. There are some timing issues with the 12Z
operational runs with the GFS being the fastest. At this time,
saw no reason to defer from the NBM. More importantly, a piece
of arctic air associated with the polar vortex dropping across
the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday will bring in a much
colder airmass for the first half of next week. This will be
accompanied by a gusty WNW flow Sunday night into Tuesday. Highs
will top out in the upper 20s to lower 30s with lows getting
into the teens for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Leaned a bit
colder than the NBM based on 2m temps in many of the operational
runs and the magnitude of the cold air coming down with 85h
temps over the area on Tuesday around -20C.
Cold high pressure builds in for Wednesday with some uncertainty
with the southern branch storm track. The GFS is aggressive in
taking low pressure up the east coast late Wednesday. This
hinges on the amount of energy left in the northern branch back
across the Great Lakes and the amount of phasing and/or interaction
between the two stream. However, it is much too early to have
any certainty at this point in time, but something to watch. For
the time, there are low chances for snow late Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front passes through this morning, followed by a cold
front this afternoon. High pressure then builds in tonight.
Mainly light rain and drizzle this morning with IFR to LIFR. A
fairly quick transition from IFR to VFR occurs mid-afternoon
behind the passage of a cold front.
E/NE flow becomes briefly light and variable at some terminals
before shifting SW and increasing late this morning. Winds veer
farther this afternoon behind the cold front, eventually
becoming WNW early this evening with gusts around 30 kt. Gusts
diminish late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories before late
this afternoon, then becoming VFR.
Peak gusts to around 35kt possible late this afternoon through
this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 25 to 30 kt during the day.
Saturday - Sunday: Low pres could bring a wintry mix changing to
rain mainly late Sat into Sun. The rain could be locally hvy.
LLWS possible along with IFR.
Monday: VFR with gusty W flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Small craft conditions will prevail on the ocean waters today
with 5 to 8 ft ocean seas and gusts around 25 kt for the most
part. Towards late in the day and evening small craft conditions
develop for the nearshore waters with gusts of 25 to 30 kt. At
the same time winds ramp up to gales on the ocean waters
throughout tonight. During Friday gales convert over to small
craft conditions out on the ocean, with small crafts for the
nearshore waters lingering for a good portion of the day. With
high pressure approaching the waters look for conditions to
subside late Friday afternoon and evening. As the high moves
over the waters Friday night looks for the winds and seas to
subside further.
High pressure on Saturday morning gives way to another storm
system Saturday afternoon into Sunday. SCA conditions are
forecast to redevelop on the ocean waters late Saturday night
and across all waters Sunday in a strengthening southerly flow
ahead of an approaching cold front and deepening low pressure
passing to the northwest. Gales are possible on the ocean Sunday
afternoon, but temperature profiles may be too inverted to mix
down gale force winds to the surface. However, behind a strong
cold frontal passage late Sunday afternoon into evening, a
westerly gale will be possible across all waters Sunday night
into Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is still anticipated across parts of the area
with this morning`s high tide cycle. The forecast remains the same
from the previous forecast, although it may fall short of advisory
thresholds across Southern Fairfield and Westchester Counties. Not
enough confidence to drop the advisories here. The total water level
forecast is a little higher than a blend of ETSS, ESTOFS, 50th and
95th NY HOPS ensemble surge guidance.
Winds shift westerly behind a cold front this afternoon and diminish
the surge, thus no subsequent coastal flooding expected.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
NYZ071.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ074-
075.
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ067-
068.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...