314
FXUS61 KOKX 131754
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1254 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and its associated cold front lifts north of the area
as a cold front pivots through late this afternoon. A large dome of
high pressure over the nation`s midsection builds tonight and
Friday, before settling over the area Friday night. Another
storm system then impacts the area later Saturday into Sunday.
High pressure slowly builds back in early next week. Low
pressure may impact the area for the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low press tracks newd across the cwa today across LI then into
the Gulf of ME late this aftn. With the mid lvls drying along
the path of the low and lgt winds, fog and dz can be expected
today. Winds pick up late this aftn and low clouds sct out by
00Z.
For tonight the winds will be gusty, with a few peak gusts
immediately behind the front possibly getting to 35 mph. Otherwise
expect 25 to 35 mph gusts tonight with strong mixing on more of a NW
flow with strong cold advection. Skies will be clear as temperatures
will turn sharply colder late in the evening and into the overnight.
Temperatures drop below freezing shortly after midnight in most
places, with widespread 20s towards daybreak. The gusty NW winds
will make it feel like it is in the teens region wide by early
Friday morning.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A brisk start to the day with a good deal of sunshine. The winds
will gust to around 30 mph through midday, with the winds
diminishing for later in the afternoon. With complete sunshine for
much of the day, look for a few high clouds late in the day.
Temperatures should average a good 5 or so degrees below normal with
middle and upper 30s.
For Friday night look for increasing high and mid level clouds,
especially after midnight. With the high settling over the area look
for the winds to go calm. A tricky temperature forecast as enough
high clouds could affect minimum temperatures some. If less cloud
cover gets in then radiational cooling would be rather impressive
with calm winds. For now will take a middle of the road approach
with low temperatures, with mainly lower and middle 20s for the
metro and coast, and some teens across the rural and interior
sections.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another amplifying southern branch storm system will lift out of
the Mid Mississippi Valley Saturday, tracking to the north and
west of the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. At the
same time, the polar vortex descends south and east out of central
Canada. Shortwave energy out ahead of it interacts with the
aforementioned low with explosive deepening Sunday into Sunday
night. There is some uncertainty with how quickly the cold air
to start on Saturday retreats to the northeast, but strong
thermal forcing will produce widespread precipitation across the
area beginning Saturday afternoon and night. This will likely
begin as snow everywhere with a changeover from south to north
starting at the coast late afternoon with most locations
becoming all rain around or shortly after midnight. There could
be a few pockets of surface temperatures around freezing well
north and west of the NYC metro until around daybreak. Thus,
looking at the potential for an advisory level event inland
with a combination of snow and ice. Coastal locations are
expected to see a quicker changeover with perhaps a light
snowfall accumulation during the afternoon hours Saturday.
For Sunday, the area gets into the warm sector as low pressure
passes to the north and west with a gusty southerly flow, especially
for coastal locations. There is even a low chance at this time
for an embedded thunderstorms just south of the area in warm
conveyor belt showers. This will be refined as we get closer to
the event. Highs on Sunday in the warm sector are forecast to
get will into the 40s and possibly the lower 50s across NYC and
LI. A strong cold front will then pass through late Sunday
afternoon and evening. There are some timing issues with the 12Z
operational runs with the GFS being the fastest. At this time,
saw no reason to defer from the NBM. More importantly, a piece
of arctic air associated with the polar vortex dropping across
the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday will bring in a much
colder airmass for the first half of next week. This will be
accompanied by a gusty WNW flow Sunday night into Tuesday. Highs
will top out in the upper 20s to lower 30s with lows getting
into the teens for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Leaned a bit
colder than the NBM based on 2m temps in many of the operational
runs and the magnitude of the cold air coming down with 85h
temps over the area on Tuesday around -20C.
Cold high pressure builds in for Wednesday with some uncertainty
with the southern branch storm track. The GFS is aggressive in
taking low pressure up the east coast late Wednesday. This
hinges on the amount of energy left in the northern branch back
across the Great Lakes and the amount of phasing and/or interaction
between the two stream. However, it is much too early to have
any certainty at this point in time, but something to watch. For
the time, there are low chances for snow late Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes across the terminals this afternoon. High
pressure then builds in tonight into Friday.
Mainly LIFR conditions to start will improve to VFR through 21z.
Some lingering light rain and drizzle ends around 20z. VFR then
prevails tonight through Friday.
Winds will continue to shift to the SW-W to start for Long
Island and NYC terminals. Further inland winds may remain
light/variable or out of the NE until the cold front passage mid
to late afternoon. Winds will then become WNW-NW this evening
and increase to 15-20kt with gusts 25-30 kt. Some peak gusts
around 35 kt possible this evening. Gusts will weaken slightly
early Friday morning before increasing again to 25-30 kt after
14z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Improving conditions may be off by 1-2 hours this afternoon.
Peak gusts around 35 kt possible this evening.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Afternoon-Night: VFR. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt in the
afternoon.
Saturday-Saturday Night: VFR early, the MVFR to IFR in
developing snow. The snow should transition to rain along the
coast, but could remain a wintry mix inland at night.
Sunday: IFR or lower. Rain with a chance of a wintry mix inland
in the morning. LLWS possible. S Gusts 20-25 kt.
Monday: VFR with WNW wind gusts 30-35 kt.
Tuesday: VFR with WNW wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A dense fog advy has been issued for today. Vis improves late
this aftn and eve as winds pick up. Small craft conditions will
prevail on the ocean waters today with 5 to 8 ft ocean seas and
gusts around 25 kt for the most part. Towards late in the day
and evening small craft conditions develop for the nearshore
waters with gusts of 25 to 30 kt. At the same time winds ramp up
to gales on the ocean waters throughout tonight. During Friday
gales convert over to small craft conditions out on the ocean,
with small crafts for the nearshore waters lingering for a good
portion of the day. With high pressure approaching the waters
look for conditions to subside late Friday afternoon and
evening. As the high moves over the waters Friday night looks
for the winds and seas to subside further.
High pressure on Saturday morning gives way to another storm
system Saturday afternoon into Sunday. SCA conditions are
forecast to redevelop on the ocean waters late Saturday night
and across all waters Sunday in a strengthening southerly flow
ahead of an approaching cold front and deepening low pressure
passing to the northwest. Gales are possible on the ocean Sunday
afternoon, but temperature profiles may be too inverted to mix
down gale force winds to the surface. However, behind a strong
cold frontal passage late Sunday afternoon into evening, a
westerly gale will be possible across all waters Sunday night
into Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
High tide is beginning to pass for the Western Sound locations.
No additional coastal flooding is anticipated at this time into
the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for
NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
353-355.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS