606
FXUS61 KOKX 141458
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
958 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A large dome of high pressure builds across today and tonight,
before pushing offshore Saturday. Low pressure approaches from the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and impacts the region late Saturday into
Sunday. High pressure then slowly builds back through Wednesday.
Low pressure may impact the area on Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The fcst is on track. Brisk and gusty at times for today with a
good deal of sunshine. The winds will gust to around 30 mph at
times through the early afternoon, with the winds diminishing
for late in the afternoon and early evening. Despite a good deal
of sunshine temperatures should average a good 5 to 7 degrees
below normal with mostly lower and middle 30s, but feeling a
good 10 to 15 degrees colder at times factoring in the WNW wind.
By early this evening high clouds start to arrive. Increasing high
and mid level clouds take place through the night, especially after
midnight in terms of increasing mid level clouds. With the high
settling over the area look for the winds to go calm. A tricky
temperature forecast as enough high clouds could affect minimum
temperatures some. Where the higher level cloud cover is less dense
more radiational cooling can take place and would be rather
impressive with calm winds. For now will take a middle of the road
approach with low temperatures and not attempt to pinpoint where any
greater radiational effects take place. Lows will be mainly in the
lower 20s for the coast, and some teens across the rural and
interior sections. With more like middle 20s in the NYC and NE NJ
metropolitan area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT BEGINNING ON NOON SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FOR SNOW FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.
Overcast skies will lower throughout the morning from SW to NE. With
the profile well below freezing to start look for snow to break out
for western areas during the early afternoon, and a few hours later
for eastern and northeastern sections. With the soundings plenty
cold enough for snow at the start look for the snow to begin to
accumulate towards very late in the afternoon and early evening
hours. During the afternoon the onshore SE flow begins to increase.
This will begin to warm up the boundary layer by early evening for
coastal areas but not before some snow accumulation can take place.
For coastal areas based on higher res sounding analysis the warming
in the boundary layer looks to outpace the warming above the
boundary layer (5 to 9 kft layer). The further inland one goes the
the boundary layer flow will be weaker and thus the mid level
warming is likely to outplace any boundary layer warming. Thus when
the transition occurs from snow look for inland locations to have a
possible brief period of sleet before going to freezing rain. At the
coast the transition will be quicker and will be mainly from snow
right to rain. The timing of the transition at this time looks to be
mainly for the mid and possibly early evening for coastal sections,
and for the late evening and overnight further inland. With the
upper level trough associated with the storm system undergoing a
shortening wavelength, this should lead to more ridging further
upstream along the coast and just offshore. This increased mid and
upper level ridging should help the warmer air in the mid
levels surge northward late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
For the winter weather advisory expect 2 to 4 inches, with
locally up to 5 inches across a few of the farthest northern
locations. Also these same locations are likely to experience a
glaze of ice further south, to close to a quarter of an inch of
ice across northwestern portions of Orange County. Snowfall
amounts along and closer to the coast outside of the advisories
will be mainly 1 to 2 inches before the changeover to rain.
By Sunday morning even inland locations should get above freezing
primarily at the sfc with any precipitation in the form of plain
rain. There remains questions as to whether the warm front at the
surface gets through the area, with the front likely being occluded
further inland. Perhaps coastal sections, especially further east
can get into the warm sector and behind the warm front briefly. Thus
temperatures are expected to remain in the 30s inland with warmer
temperatures further southeast. Far southern and southeastern
locations could get into the middle and upper 40s if the warm front
completely gets through. Most of the modeling has showery rains
developing ahead of the cold frontal boundary in the warm sector.
This should pivot through the area after a short break in the precip
earlier in the day. Then by during the afternoon the cold front
should move through from west to east, with the front likely to
clear eastern sections by early evening effectively ending all
precipitation. Total QPF from the event looks to be on the
order of roughly 1.5 to 2 inches of liquid averaged across the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Gusty west winds for Sunday night through Monday night in the wake
of a cold front passage and high pressure slowly building in from
the west. Advisory-level gusts may be possible in some areas during
Monday and something that will need to be monitored. 850mb temps
drop to around -15C, but will be offset by strong downsloping
westerly winds. Went a little above NBM guidance, but high
temperatures on Monday will still be below normal. Still somewhat
breezy for Tuesday as high pressure continues to build in, but winds
will at least not be as strong this time. High temps about 10
degrees below normal.
The high pressure ridge finally reaches us on Wednesday, but gets
eroded by the next system that is shaping up to impact the forecast
area. It probably remains dry through the daytime, but then chances
of snow begin to increase Wednesday night into Thursday. Several
global models and their respective ensemble means are signaling a
coastal storm emerging off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Weds night into
Thursday morning, then passing nearby the 40N/70W benchmark in the
Thursday to Thursday night time frame. Have PoPs capped at 50% with
this being a day-7 forecast, but woudn`t be surprised to see NBM
PoPs trend upward given recent model trends. As it stands, precip
type would be all snow.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region through today and moves
overhead tonight.
VFR.
NW-WNW winds mostly 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt through much of
the day. Winds and gusts diminish towards evening, with gusts
ending around 00Z Saturday. Winds become light and variable
late tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds probably favor north/right of 310 magnetic through the
day.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday-Saturday Night: VFR in the morning, the IFR in snow in the
afternoon. The snow should transition to rain along the coast in the
evening, and inland overnight. A wintry mix may remain at KSWF
for the entire overnight hours, including freezing rain.
Sunday: IFR or lower with rain. A chance of freezing rain at KSWF
early in the morning. LLWS possible, especially east of the city
terminals. S Gusts 20-25 kt.
Monday: VFR with W wind gusts 35-40 kt.
Tuesday: VFR with W wind gusts around 25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Gale conditions continue through the morning and into a portion of
the afternoon for most of the waters. With high pressure approaching
the waters look for conditions to subside towards evening. As
conditions subside a brief period of small craft conditions is
expected before sub advisory conditions prevail across all waters by
mid to late evening. As the high moves over the waters later tonight
look for the winds and seas to subside further with ocean seas down
to around 1 ft for Saturday morning. The high pushes east and a SE
wind increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with marginal
small craft seas on the ocean waters by early Sunday with the
likelihood of widespread small craft conditions increasing through
the day Sunday on the ocean.
A good chance of gales for Sunday night through Monday night for all
waters as high pressure builds in behind the departing storm and
cold front. SCA conds then prevail on Tuesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated from this weekend`s storm
system despite the fact that 1.5 to 2 inches of liquid is expected
across the area. Thereafter no hydrologic impacts are anticipated
through the remainder of the forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for CTZ005>008.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
for CTZ009>012.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for NYZ067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
for NYZ069>071.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for NJZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
for NJZ004-103>105.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JE/JMC
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC/JT
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE