423
FXUS61 KOKX 150056
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
756 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across through Saturday. Low pressure
will pass through Sunday, bringing a cold front through Sunday
evening. High pressure will then slowly build from the west from
Monday through Wednesday. Low pressure organizing along the
northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday will then move up the Southeast
coast Wednesday night and intensify into a major winter storm
off the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday into Thursday night, which
should then move east of New England on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Minor adjustments made to trend from 22Z obs.
High pres builds over the area tngt. Winds will decrease but
high clouds will increase ahead of the next sys. The increasing
clouds should keep temps from completely bottoming out, and the
NBM with minor adjustments was used.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The modeling remains consistent for the weekend storm. Timing of
the onset of snow generally holds off until 18Z or later per the
consensus. Could be some initial flakes invof Port Jervis prior
to that time. The snow increases in intensity late in the aftn
and eve, then transitions to sleet and rain from S to N aft 00Z.
Across the interior, the pcpn transitions to PL and FZRA
instead, before warming abv freezing Sun mrng. The raw model
blend looked best to lock in the cold llvl air across the
interior so went close to that for temps Sun. Some cstl/ern
areas could be in the lower 50s while nwrn interior remains in
the 30s.
Trended snow totals slightly lower with the surge of WAA, but
did not want to pull back too much yet with an initial few
hours of mdt to locally hvy snow at the front end of the sys.
No changes to icing amounts. Up to a quarter inch of ice seems
on track for this sys. As always, there is some uncertainty wrt
exact transition times. It is possible that the advy may need to
be extended a few hours longer Sun mrng for the extreme nwrn
tier where light flow around 070 is locked in, but no changes
to the advy have been made attm.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:
* Colder and windy conditions expected early next week after a cold
frontal passage Sunday night.
* Potential is increasing for a major winter storm from Wednesday
night into Thursday night.
Complex pattern developing over North America during this time
should help lock in cold air, with one large closed low developing
over eastern Canada and another in its wake over the northern Plains
and upper Great Lakes. At the surface, strong low pressure moving
from upstate New York toward the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night
will bring a cold front through, with colder and brisk conditions
for Monday and possibly into Tuesday via a tight pressure gradient
between the low and strong high pressure off to the west.
Meanwhile, shortwave energy moving onshore the West Coast early
next week should dive toward the southern Plains by Wed AM and
initiate sfc cyclogenesis along the northern Gulf coast daytime
Wed. The degree to which this system phases with the northern
Plains closed low will determine the track and intensity of the
developing sfc low as it moves up the Southeast coast Wed night
and then off the Mid Atlantic coast Thu/Thu night, pulling away
on Fri. There is increasing potential for a major winter storm
to impact the area from Wed night into Thu night with heavy snow
during this time, also strong N winds Thu night--the 12Z ECMWF
ensemble control run shows an intense low off the Mid Atlantic
coast passing just outside the 40N/70W benchmark Thu night,
bringing major snowfall for all the I-95 cities from DC to
Boston, with its axis of heaviest snowfall very close or just
south and east which makes sense given that storm track, while
the ensemble control run shows widespread 50-60% potential for 6
or more inches of snow during this time. The Canadian model and
its ensemble are in close agreement, while the deterministic
GFS/ICON are suppressed, showing the heaviest snow mostly away
from the big cities, impacting eastern Delmarva and southern NJ
over to the Cape and Islands of MA. That said, the GEFS does
show some ensemble members supporting the ECMWF/Canadian
solution. Enough confidence in winter storm potential exists to
include mention in the HWO.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure moves overhead tonight. Low pressure approaches
and passes Saturday into Saturday night.
VFR through Saturday morning. Cigs and vsbys lower through
Saturday afternoon and evening. Cigs and vsbys may remain low
into Saturday night.
Winds become light and variable over the next 2-6 hours,
remaining that way until the morning. THen southeasterly flow
develops under 10 kt through the end of the TAF period.
Snow is expected by Saturday afternoon. MVFR vsby expected
around 20Z, with vsby as low as 3/4SM possible in pockets of
heavier snow. Cigs lower to MVFR around 20Z as well, with IFR
cigs starting around 22Z-00Z. Snow transitions to rain along the
coast in the evening and inland overnight. A wintry mix remains
at KSWF for the entire overnight, including freezing rain.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments possible for flight category changes to cigs and
vsbys with snow moving in Saturday afternoon.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: IFR or lower with rain. A chance of freezing rain at
KSWF early in the morning. LLWS possible, especially east of
the city terminals. S winds G20-25 kt.
Monday: VFR with W winds G35-40kt.
Tuesday: VFR with W winds G25 kt.
Wednesday: VFR daytime. Chance of snow at night with IFR vsby.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Based on latest obs showing winds below 25 kt but seas still 6
ft at 44097 S of Block Island, have extended SCA E of Moriches
Inlet until 10 PM. Winds and seas will then be below SCA lvls
thru Sat. Winds and seas increase Sat ngt and Sun when SCA will
likely be needed.
W gales are likely on the ocean and the ern Sound/Bays Sunday
night ahead of and after a cold frontal passage, then on all
waters daytime Mon. Sustained winds on the ocean are likely to
reach gale force (35 kt) during this time, with gusts 40-45 kt,
with sustained 30 kt winds and gusts 35-40 kt likely on the
non- ocean waters. Winds shift NW and diminish Mon evening but
should still be at gale force during the evening on all waters,
then on the ocean and open Sound waters late Mon night. SCA cond
should follow for all waters on Tue, gradually subsiding Tue
night.
Quiet cond expected on all waters ahead of an approaching
winter storm beyond the end of the forecast period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Fri.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for CTZ005>008.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
for CTZ009>012.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for NYZ067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
for NYZ069>071.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
for NJZ002.
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
for NJZ004-103>105.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/BG
NEAR TERM...JMC/BG
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JMC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JMC/BG