447
FXUS61 KOKX 192356
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
656 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure near the southeast will move off the
coast tonight and track well south and east of the area
Thursday through Thursday night. Thereafter, sprawling high
pressure over the mid section of the country builds in through
the weekend, remaining in control through Monday. A weak low
pressure system passes to our north on Tuesday. Weak high
pressure then builds back on Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is mainly on track. Minor adjustments were made to
cloud cover, temperatures and dewpoints for the next few hours.
A piece of high pressure originating from a larger high east
of the Rockies will remain in place tonight as low pressure
deepens along the southeast coast. High clouds to the north of
the low as well as ahead of the large closed upper low will
continue to stream overhead this evening. The thicker high
clouds may briefly sag south of the area or remain closer to the
coast for much of the the night. Winds should also be much
lighter compared to the last few nights as the pressure gradient
is much lighter. Some outlying areas may even decouple for a
time late tonight. Low temperatures are a bit of a challenge due
to the potential of the higher clouds ending up a bit thicker,
preventing the most ideal radiational cooling conditions. Low
temperatures are coldest inland where less clouds are expected
and will generally be around 10 degrees. Elsewhere, lows look to
range from the middle to upper teens.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
There has been very little change to the expected conditions
for Thursday as the model guidance has continued to show the
deepening low pressure tracking well south and east of the
region. Several of the outlier members which were showing the
northern edge of the precip shield scraping the eastern part of
Long Island have also backed off, keeping any measurable precip
offshore. Have trended the forecast in this direction with much
of the daytime hours dry.
The aforementioned closed upper low will slide across the region
late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The upper low then
pushes offshore towards early Friday morning. Energy associated
with the upper low may be enough to develop isolated to
scattered snow showers late in the afternoon and evening. The
location of these is somewhat uncertain and can be difficult to
predict under deep upper lows. However, the latest high res
modeling is signaling the southern half of the area with a
slightly higher probability for snow showers. The sub cloud
layer remains dry, but any localized enhancement could put down
a light accumulation in the evening. Have kept probabilities low
for now given the uncertainty, but a coating to a few tenths of
accumulation cannot be ruled out. It is also possible that some
of this activity ends up being flurries. Any snow
showers/flurries push offshore and diminish overnight with cold
and blustery conditions returning. NW winds will likely gust
25-30 mph by day break Friday morning. Daytime highs on Thursday
will range from the mid 20s inland to around 30 at the coast.
Lows Thursday night will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.
Wind chills to start the day Friday will likely be in the single
digits to around 10 degrees.
Sprawling high pressure across the mid section of the country
builds into the area on Friday. NW winds will likely continue
gusting 25 to 30 mph through the day with temperatures remaining
below normal in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The high pressure
settles across the Middle Atlantic and Southeast Friday night
with any gusts diminishing. Winds look light under a mostly
clear sky condition with temperatures mainly in the teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The flow aloft during this weekend will be zonal for the most
part although models indicate weak troughing Saturday night
into Sunday. Models have trended a little flatter with this
trough since 24 hours ago along with less moisture. A dry
forecast has therefore been maintained for both Saturday and
Sunday. Highs 35-40 for Saturday, then seasonable on Sunday in
the lower 40s.
Differences exist among the global models regarding the timing
of upper and surface features from Monday night through
Wednesday. There is however general agreement that a surface low
shifting east from the vicinity of the northern Great Lakes
Region passes well to our north at some point on Tuesday. An
attendant warm front and cold front along with shortwaves aloft
provide the lift for low chances of precip from Monday night
through Tuesday night. Kept precip types simple with rain and/or
snow. Coastal areas would see the precip all in the form of
rain with the wintry mix potential inland. Weak ridging then
follows for Wednesday with dry weather anticipated along with
highs in the middle to upper 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes well south and east of the area through
Thursday. An upper level low will cross the area Thursday
evening and may bring scattered snow showers to the terminals.
High pressure builds in late Thursday night.
VFR through most of the TAF period as a mid level deck
overspreads the region and lowers. Prob30 for light snow showers
after 22z Thu. MVFR possible.
WNW to NW winds around 10 kt or less. Occasional gusts around
the metro terminals to near 20 kt through about 02Z. Winds then
become NW-N tonight at 10 kt or less. Winds then shift to the NW
Thursday at 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by the late
afternoon, generally after 22Z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Night: Chance MVFR or lower in light snow, otherwise
VFR. NW winds G20-25kt at night.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20-25 kt.
Saturday and Sunday: VFR.
Monday...Mainly VFR...slight chance of MVFR in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will continue to subside on the waters through this
evening. Conditions will then remain below SCA levels through
Thursday. SCA conditions will then return Thursday night and
continue through Friday as high pressure builds behind a
departing offshore low pressure. Have issued a new SCA from 6pm
Thursday through 6pm Friday. SCA conditions may linger on the
ocean Friday night, but winds and seas should be subsiding
through the night.
Sub advisory conditions then prevail through the upcoming
weekend with the pressure gradient a little weaker as high
pressure shifts off the Carolina coast. A WSW flow through much
of the weekend becomes southerly during Monday, but winds and
seas should remain below advisory thresholds.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 6 PM EST Friday for
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JC/DS
HYDROLOGY...JC/DS