okx-afd on 2025-02-21

733
FXUS61 KOKX 220127
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
827 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will build in this weekend, then pass offshore
Sunday night into Monday. A warm front will then pass to the
north on Monday, followed by a cold front moving through
Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will then briefly return on
Wednesday before a frontal system likely affects the region
on Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Forecast on track as high pressure builds to the south tonight.
Under clear skies, winds will diminish as the pressure gradient
area weakens, with low temps around 20 in the city and in the
teens elsewhere. Wind chills fall to around 10 above in the
city and the single digits elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The flow aloft will be zonal for the most part during the period
with weakening surface high pressure centered to our south. Sunny
conditions to start the day Saturday, then it appears that some
cirrus will be filtering the sun during the afternoon. WSW winds
will help push high temperatures close to 40 in the city with middle
and upper 30s across the rest of the area.

The cirrus should shift out of here during the overnight hours of
Saturday. This will probably allow for a few hours of favorable
radiational cooling conditions. Anticipating low temperatures in the
low 20s for the northernmost zones and Pine Barrens Region, around
30 in the city, and mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Key Points:

* Temperatures likely 5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday through
  Thursday. A return to more seasonable temps to end the week.

* Mainly dry conditions are expected through mid week. A frontal
  system will likely affect the region Wed night into Thursday,
  with a more organized low pressure system possible for next
  weekend.

Quasi-zonal upper flow through early next week with PAC jet
riding the northern tier of the ConUS around expansive polar
trough across southern Canada. Southern stream appears to remain
split from northern stream until late week, after the northern
stream upper flow becomes increasingly amplified during the mid
to late week as a series of deepening shortwaves ride along the
flow.

Seasonable conditions Sunday into Monday as a weak shortwave and
surface trough move through on Sunday morning with weak
Canadian high pressure building in Sun night into Mon AM, and
offshore during the day Monday.

General agreement with quick succession of shortwaves moving
through south central to southeastern tier of Canada Sunday
night into Monday night, and then a stronger shortwave digging
from the northern plains Monday to the eastern US Tuesday night
(although there is a bit of model spread in timing/amplitude of
this shortwave). The result will be a complex frontal system
with primary low pressure tracking around the base of Hudson`s
Bay, and possible secondary triple point low developing across
the US/Canadian border that could bring the next chance for
precipitation locally late Tuesday into Wed AM. This looks to be
a progressive system with limited precip potential. The
amplified SW flow into the NE US and resulting moderating trend
Mon into Tuesday support a mainly rain event, with temps rising
to above seasonable levels. Will have to monitor the low
probability of a potential interaction of this northern stream
shortwave with a southern branch shortwave, and possible backing
of developing offshore low closer to the coast bringing a
wetter scenario (limited support for this from ECMWF and its
ensembles).

Thereafter, general model agreement in further longitudinal
amplification of troughing across the Eastern US for late week
period in response to a more vigorous PAC shortwave diving
through the Central US into the SE US. Typical model
timing/amplitude spread exists at this time frame, with
resultant model spread in track/timing/intensity of a clipper
type system through the region Thu/Thu night. Pattern suggestive
of another progressive and primarily rain system.

In its wake, a subsequent return to more seasonable late Feb/early
March temps for Friday, and possibly below normal with a more
organized low pressure system for the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --VFR as high pressure builds to the south. NW flow 15-20 kt,
gusting to 25-30 kt through this evening, diminishes overnight
to around 10 kt. Winds then become W-SW by Sat afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night through Monday night: VFR.

Tuesday: Chance of showers with MVFR cond possible at KSWF/KHPN,
otherwise VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --Winds gradually diminish overnight, with gusts falling below 25
kt late tonight into Sat morning.

Increasing S-SW flow may bring potential for 25-kt gusts and
5-ft seas on the ocean waters Mon night into Tue after a warm
frontal passage and ahead of an approaching cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ331-332-
     340-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ335-338-
     345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...JC/NV
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV