677
FXUS61 KOKX 241612
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1112 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will move east out into the Atlantic today. A weak
cold front will approach on Tuesday and move across during late
afternoon and early evening, followed by high pressure into
Wednesday. A warm front will lift to the north Wednesday night,
followed by a cold front on Thursday and a secondary cold frontal
passage Thursday night. High pressure will briefly take hold on
Friday. A clipper low will pass over the area or just north on
Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast still on track. Minor adjustments made to better match
with observed trends, mainly for AM cloud cover over parts of
CT and incoming clouds to the west entering the Hudson Valley.
Low level southerly flow develops today and will result in warm air
advection. Mid level ridging will allow for more subsidence.
Except for some AM cloud inland, mostly sunny sky conditions
expected, with some increase in clouds throughout by late day.
MOS in agreement with above normal temperatures today,
reaching well into the 40s throughout the region with near 50
degree values within and around the NYC Metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level heights nearly steady tonight. The low level warm air
advection continues tonight at 850mb. At the surface, the
continuance of southerly flow will keep temperatures relatively
warmer along the coast while locations farther inland will be
relatively colder.
Mid level trough approaches with decreasing mid level heights
Tuesday. The lowering height trend continues into Tuesday night as
the trough axis moves through. The 850mb warm air advection
continues early but will then transition eventually to cold air
advection by the end of the day. The mid level trough exits east of
the area by early Wednesday. 850mb temperatures continue to lower
Tuesday night. At the surface, southerly flow Tuesday switches to
more westerly flow late Tuesday into Tuesday night with the passage
of a cold front. High temperatures forecast Tuesday are a few
degrees higher compared to the previous day.
A few rain showers are possible with the cold front with otherwise
mainly dry conditions and just an increase in clouds accompanying
the frontal passage. Low temperatures Tuesday night are forecast to
be nearly the same as the previous night. Low pressure well offshore
travels northward along the front Tuesday night, so winds stay up a
little more with relatively tighter pressure gradient.
The airmass will moderate quickly Wednesday with temperature
trending warmer at 850mb. 850mb temperatures further warm Wednesday
night into early Thursday before decreasing again. Highs forecast on
Wednesday similar overall to the highs the previous day. Blended in
more raw model consensus data for temperatures Wednesday night and
Thursday. Not too much of a diurnal swing of temperatures is
expected. Mainly mid to upper 30s for forecast lows Wednesday night
followed by forecast highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday.
The frontal system approaching Wednesday night has an associated
warm front moving across the region followed by a cold front
approaching going into Thursday. This cold front moves in during the
day on Thursday. A higher chance of rain showers will accompany this
frontal system compared to the system earlier in the week. Highest
chances for rain showers will be Thursday afternoon into early
evening with some locations north and west of NYC having rain
showers likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:
* Few rain showers Thursday night with gusty NW winds.
* Average temperatures Friday followed by below normal
temperatures Friday night.
* Uncertainty surrounding a clipper low on Saturday, but likely
bringing either rain or snow.
* Dry with below normal temperatures Sunday into Monday.
Model guidance agrees on a cold front passing Thursday evening in
response to a passing low exiting into New England Thursday evening,
then further deepening as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes. AS
the cold front passes, most rain showers are expected to clear.
A secondary cold front will pass with a digging longwave trough
Thursday night. While we`ll quickly dry following the first frontal
passage, some upper-level energy associated with the longwave trough
over the eastern US and our nearby location to the left exit of the
jet stream to our south, may provide just enough for a few
light rain/snow showers Thursday night.
Thursday night into early Friday may also see some increased winds
in response to a tight pressure gradient following the low`s exit to
our northeast.
Late Friday, expecting zonal flow aloft with weak surface high
pressure briefly settling in. Winds will likely weaken in response
by Friday evening. However, given the steady NW winds prior, plenty
of colder air should advect in to leave highs on Friday in the
mid/low-40s. With lighter flow Friday night due to the high
pressure directly overhead, temperatures should dip into the low-30s
to low-20s.
Our next system is poised to impact us on Saturday or Saturday
night. A clipper low will pass either over our area, which would
lead to mainly snow (00Z GFS shows this) or the low will pass to our
north leading to mainly rain or a rain/snow mix (00Z
ECMWF/ICON/GDPS show this). Model timing track and strength of
the low still vary quite a bit, so can`t make any definite calls
just yet. For now, going with a rain to a rain-snow mix
solution given most guidance keeps the low to our north, but
there is still time for this to change.
Following Saturday`s low, which comes with a small shortwave trough
aloft, a deeper longwave trough will settle over the eastern US for
the remainder of the weekend and the start of next week. Most
models agree on this solution with high pressure at the surface.
Expecting this period to be dry with below normal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to move offshore early this morning. A
frontal system approaches from the west late this afternoon
into tonight.
VFR.
SE-S wind with speeds 5-10 kt by afternoon. Winds may peak
10-15 kt at KJFK and KLGA from an Ambrose Jet setup. Winds veer
slightly to the SSW this evening. Winds drop to around 5 kt
tonight or go light and variable. 5-10 kt again after daybreak
tomorrow.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of winds becoming SE-S this morning may be off by 1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers and MVFR.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Showers and MVFR possible. S-SW winds G15-20kt in the
afternoon.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Overall, expected the pressure gradient to remain weak enough to
keep conditions below SCA thresholds on average today through
midweek. Higher chances for SCA, especially on the ocean, are
forecast Thursday associated with a frontal system moving
through.
In wake of a frontal system, 5-7 ft waves could linger on the
ocean Thursday night into Friday. Wind gusts may approach 25 kts on
the ocean late Thursday night into early Friday. Friday night and
thereafter, SCA criteria is not expected to be met.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the start of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BG/JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR