088
FXUS61 KOKX 242326
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
626 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore high pressure will move farther out to sea through
Tuesday morning as a warm front passes well to the north. A cold
front will approach Tuesday afternoon and move through Tuesday
night. High pressure will briefly build in on Wednesday before a
frontal system moves through Wednesday night through Friday.
High pressure will return Friday night, with another frontal
system potentially impacting the area Saturday and Saturday
night. High pressure will then build in and remain in control
through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Biggest adjustment was made to winds for this update as
locations in western Long Island are still gusting 25-30 kt.
Earlier runs of the HRRR handled this well so followed close for
the next few hours which has gusts ending by 01z. Otherwise, bkn
stratocu across interior SE CT via onshore flow via combo of
low level warm/moist advection on S flow should dissipate this
evening after loss of daytime heating. Thereafter an expansive
area of bkn high clouds across PA back into the OH valley should
overspread the area, with partly cloudy skies. High cloud cover
plus low level WAA should lead to low temps a few degrees
warmer than those of last night, with lows near 40 in NYC, in
the 30s most elsewhere, perhaps still some upper 20s in the
valleys of Orange County.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying upper trough will approach daytime Tue, with an
associated weak cold front approaching in the afternoon and
passing through in the evening, accompanied by a few rain
showers mainly inland during the late afternoon and early
evening. Before these showers arrive expect BKN high and mid
level clouds to dominate, with a low level S-SW flow leading to
an even milder day. Sided with the milder side of MOS guidance
showing high temps reaching the lower/mid 50s away from south
facing shorelines where temps will be limited to the upper 40s.
Skies clear out during the late evening and overnight, though
some lake effect clouds may encroach on areas N/W of NYC as a
weak secondary sfc trough moves through late. Low temps Tue
night should be similar to those fcst for tonight, near 40 in
NYC and in the 30s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:
* Active period with the potential for two frontal systems to
move through. The first is expected to bring light rain
Thursday into Thursday night and the second may bring a light
wintry mix Saturday into Saturday night.
* Above normal temperatures expected on Wednesday and Thursday
drop back to near normal on Friday and Saturday and below
normal Sunday and Monday.
Weak ridging builds into the area at the surface and aloft on
Wednesday. This will lead to mostly sunny skies, dry
conditions and above normal temperatures.
Heights aloft start to lower Wednesday night as a frontal
system approaches. The warm front looks to move through sometime
Thursday morning, with the cold front moving through Thursday
afternoon. Given the track of the low center being to our north,
temperatures in our area will be warm enough for an all plain
rain event.
A secondary cold front looks to move through on Friday.
Latest guidance has been pretty consistent in a quick
tightening of the pressure gradient over the area with this
secondary push. Went closer to the NBM 90th percentile with
winds and wind gusts giving sustained winds around 20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph for Friday.
After brief high pressure Friday night, another low will
approach. With some colder air to work with, this low could
bring us a wintry mix. Uncertainty still remains, so stuck with
rain/snow showers. QPF amounts do not look impressive, likely
under a tenth of an inch of liquid. High pressure then builds in
and remains in control Sunday and Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches through Tuesday morning and moves across
the terminals Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Mainly VFR. A shower is possible with the cold frontal passage
Tuesday afternoon/evening. The highest probability for a shower
and brief MVFR is at KSWF where a PROB30 has been included.
SE-S winds around 10-15 kt to start will weaken through the
evening. Winds will also veer slightly to the SSW. Wind speeds
fall below 10 kt overnight with many outlying terminals settling
around 5 kt. SSW winds continue on Tuesday generally remaining
10 kt or less through the day. The wind direction begins to
shift to the WNW in the evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts 20-25 kt remain possible through 01z.
Timing of wind shift to the WNW Tuesday evening may be off by
1-2 hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night-Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Showers and MVFR or lower possible. S-SW winds
G15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. S winds G15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Wind gusts on the ocean waters may approach but fall short of 25
kt, while seas briefly build as high as 4 ft.
SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters Thu through Fri
night with 5+ ft seas. SCA conditions should hold off on the non
ocean waters until Friday, when 25-30 kt gusts are forecast.
SCA conditions are also briefly possible on the ocean waters on
Sat with the passage of another frontal system.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/JT
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT