538
FXUS61 KOKX 250231
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
931 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front passes well to the north tonight. A cold front
will approach Tuesday and move through Tuesday evening. High
pressure will briefly build in on Wednesday before a frontal
system moves through Wednesday night through Friday. High
pressure will return Friday night, with another frontal system
potentially impacting the area Saturday and Saturday night. High
pressure will then build in and remain in control through early
next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Portions of the area continue to see S gusts 20-25 mph this
evening. Think these will end in the next hour or so, but
sustained winds will likely remain 5-10 mph through the night.

Otherwise the forecast remains on track. Expansive area of bkn
high clouds has overspread the area. The high clouds should
continue through the night although there is a chance they may
thin out a bit late tonight. The high clouds plus low level WAA
should lead to low temps a few degrees warmer than those of
last night, with lows near 40 in NYC, in the 30s most elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying upper trough will approach daytime Tue, with an
associated weak cold front approaching in the afternoon and
passing through in the evening, accompanied by a few rain
showers mainly inland during the late afternoon and early
evening. Before these showers arrive expect BKN high and mid
level clouds to dominate, with a low level S-SW flow leading to
an even milder day. Sided with the milder side of MOS guidance
showing high temps reaching the lower/mid 50s away from south
facing shorelines where temps will be limited to the upper 40s.

Skies clear out during the late evening and overnight, though
some lake effect clouds may encroach on areas N/W of NYC as a
weak secondary sfc trough moves through late. Low temps Tue
night should be similar to those fcst for tonight, near 40 in
NYC and in the 30s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Active period with the potential for two frontal systems to
  move through. The first is expected to bring light rain
  Thursday into Thursday night and the second may bring a light
  wintry mix Saturday into Saturday night.

* Above normal temperatures expected on Wednesday and Thursday
  drop back to near normal on Friday and Saturday and below
  normal Sunday and Monday.

Weak ridging builds into the area at the surface and aloft on
Wednesday. This will lead to mostly sunny skies, dry
conditions and above normal temperatures.

Heights aloft start to lower Wednesday night as a frontal
system approaches. The warm front looks to move through sometime
Thursday morning, with the cold front moving through Thursday
afternoon. Given the track of the low center being to our north,
temperatures in our area will be warm enough for an all plain
rain event.

A secondary cold front looks to move through on Friday.
Latest guidance has been pretty consistent in a quick
tightening of the pressure gradient over the area with this
secondary push. Went closer to the NBM 90th percentile with
winds and wind gusts giving sustained winds around 20 mph and
gusts up to 30 mph for Friday.

After brief high pressure Friday night, another low will
approach. With some colder air to work with, this low could
bring us a wintry mix. Uncertainty still remains, so stuck with
rain/snow showers. QPF amounts do not look impressive, likely
under a tenth of an inch of liquid. High pressure then builds in
and remains in control Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A warm front lifts to the north tonight followed by a cold front
that moves through the terminals Tuesday evening.

Mainly VFR. A shower is possible with the cold frontal passage
Tuesday afternoon/evening. The highest probability for a shower
and brief MVFR is at KSWF where a PROB30 has been included.

S-SSW winds around 10-15 kt should weaken through 06z. Wind
speeds should fall below 10 kt after 06z with many outlying
terminals settling around 5 kt early Tuesday. SSW winds
continue on Tuesday generally remaining 10 kt or less through
the day. The wind direction begins to shift to the WNW in the
evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Any gusts should end by 05z.

Timing of wind shift to the WNW Tuesday evening may be off by
1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night-Wednesday: VFR.

Thursday: Showers and MVFR or lower possible. S-SW winds
G15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Friday: VFR. NW winds G20-25 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. S winds G15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts on the ocean waters may approach but fall short of 25
kt, while seas briefly build as high as 4 ft.

SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters Thu through Fri
night with 5+ ft seas. SCA conditions should hold off on the non
ocean waters until Friday, when 25-30 kt gusts are forecast.

SCA conditions are also briefly possible on the ocean waters on
Sat with the passage of another frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected attm.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT