659
FXUS61 KOKX 251128
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
628 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today, moving across this
evening. High pressure briefly returns for Wednesday into early
Wednesday evening before moving offshore. A stronger frontal system
then approaches with its warm front moving across Wednesday night
and then its cold front moving across Thursday night. A secondary
cold front moves through early Friday followed by brief high
pressure into Friday night. An Alberta Clipper low passes just to
our north Saturday, followed by high pressure Sunday into
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor adjustment made to forecast in order to increase cloud
coverage and slight adjustment to temperatures. Forecast overall
on track.
Warm front north of the region with associated wave of low pressure
approaching from the north and west today. It will have an
associated cold front that will eventually move across early this
evening. This will allow for some rain showers to fall across parts
of the region. The synoptic forcing with the jet aloft places the
local area farther away from the right rear quad but in close enough
proximity to increase manually POPs for late this afternoon into
early this evening.
Most locations as a result have a chance of rain showers. While
large scale models do not depict precipitation occurring across the
coastal areas and just mainly across the interior, the smaller scale
mesoscale models do depict more shower activity closer to the coast.
Not much rain is expected across the region and duration of rain
showers will be brief.
High temperatures were from the MAV guidance, relatively warmer side
of guidance. Most of the area has a range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s for highs with some locations in NE NJ and within NYC
getting into the mid 50s. Some locations could be reaching their
respective highest temperatures for the calendar year thus far.
After the cold front passage tonight, the cold front and wave of low
pressure move offshore and merge with a stronger low offshore. Winds
become more westerly in the region. Forecast lows generally range
from the lower 30s to near 40.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday into early Wednesday evening, high pressure will
briefly return to the region. Then this high pressure area will move
well out to sea. Next wave of low pressure from the Ohio Valley will
approach with its associated warm front moving into and eventually
north of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Some cold air advection on more westerly flow will make for a
relatively cooler day Wednesday compared to the previous day.
However, the highs forecast will still be near 50, which is still
above normal for this time of year.
Region gets into warm sector Thursday with more southwest low level
warm air advection. A rebound of temperatures for NYC and NE NJ as
well as Lower Hudson Valley into SW CT is forecast. Those locations
have forecast highs several degrees warmer than the previous day.
Used the NBM for high temperatures. They do appear to have trended
warmer compared to around 24 hours ago with the same blend. It is
possible with subsequent forecasts that the high temperatures
Thursday may trend higher.
The warm sector will be part of a stronger low pressure system
approaching the area Thursday. The upper level jet with its left
front quadrant will be closer, presenting enhanced lift. Higher
chances of rain showers are forecast for the region with more rain
possible as well.
Before all precipitation comes to a close Thursday night, back side
of low with cold air advection may allow for some mixing with snow
for the interior. At this time, any snow accumulations are expected
to be light and generally under an inch.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A secondary cold front moves in with a sharply amplified trough aloft
early on Friday as a low exits over the Canadian Maritimes. With a
lack of moisture, no precip is expected with this front, though
clouds may hang around. Winds start Friday morning from the west,
becoming NW with the frontal passage. After the frontal passage late
Friday morning into Friday afternoon, NW winds are expected to
increase with the aid of an increased pressure gradient. Peak winds
Friday afternoon and early Friday evening will 10-15 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph.
High pressure briefly sets Friday night. This lessens the pressure
gradient allowing winds to lessen and even go light and variable
late Friday night. Temperatures Friday night dip into the low-20s to
mid-30s, with the warmest temperatures in the NYC metro, while
everyone else likely drops below 30.
An Alberta Clipper Low is expected to be somewhere over the Great
Lakes Friday night, passing to our north midday to late Saturday and
bringing another cold front. Moisture will be low with this low, so
most precip would likely only occur closer to the low`s center.
Guidance still varies on how close the low comes to us, but overall,
expected around 0.,10" of QPF or less, with most of that occurring in
the interior closer to the low. Coastal areas to the south will
likely see less, if anything at all, depending on how north the low
tracks. Precip, where it occurs, looks to be predominately rain,
with a rain-snow mix in the interior, where the cooler air should
be.
Following Saturday`s low, models are in good agreement that Sunday
through Tuesday will be under high pressure. A large upper-level
trough accompanies this high pressure Sunday into Monday followed by
an upper-level ridge on Tuesday. Below average temperatures will
take hold Sunday into Monday, but warm significantly on Tuesday in
response to the higher heights that come with the ridge.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front moves through this evening followed by high pressure
into tomorrow.
Mainly VFR. A shower is possible with the cold frontal passage late
afternoon and early evening. Brief MVFR is also possible with any
shower.
SSW winds are either light and variable or around or just a kt or
two above 5kt. S-SSW then winds continue into the afternoon
remaining 10 kt or less, except at KJFK where they may reach 11
kt. Winds shift to the NW this evening into tonight behind the
front. They remain that way into the day tomorrow 5-10 kt.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the WNW-NW this evening may be off by 1-2
hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: Showers and MVFR or lower possible. S-SW winds G15-20 kt
in the afternoon.
Friday: VFR. NW winds G20-25 kt.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. S winds G15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions generally expected on average today through
Wednesday night. May have some brief 25 kt gusts for parts of the
ocean today into this evening but just occasional frequency.
Greater chance of widespread SCA conditions with frontal system
late Wednesday night, Thursday into Thursday night, especially
on the ocean.
SCA conditions are expected on all waters Friday with NW gusts
peaking around 25 kts. SCA conditions for waves will be met on
the ocean Friday with waves 5-7 feet. Friday night onwards, SCA
criteria is not expected to be met, except for on ocean waters
where 5-7 foot may linger just a little longer into early Friday
night, before dropping below 5 feet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
System today into tonight, under a quarter of an inch of rain
expected. System Thursday into Thursday night, under a half of
an inch of rain expected.
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the start of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR