211
FXUS61 KOKX 252041
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front moves through this evening. High pressure briefly
returns on Wednesday, followed by another frontal system Wednesday
night through Thursday night. High pressure will build quickly
across on Friday. Low pressure will then pass to the north Friday
night into Saturday, with a leading warm frontal passage Saturday
morning and trailing cold frontal passage late in the afternoon.
Canadian high pressure building from the west from Saturday night
through Monday will pass east Monday night into Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Southerly flow has picked up slightly as well as cloud cover. This
has led to temperatures actually dropping a few degrees from where
they were earlier in the afternoon, mainly across Long Island and
coastal CT. A cold front continues to approach from the west. The
associated surface is low is centered over the Great Lakes and will
pass well to our north, but drag the cold front through our area
this evening. Some light rain showers are possible ahead of and
along the front, but confidence continues to decrease. Have lowered
PoPs from the previous forecast due to current obs. It may even end
up being more of a sprinkle than shower activity. Even though
radar returns can be seen over Orange County currently, there
have been no rain obs likely due to around 20 degree dewpoint
depressions.
Even though skies clear, northwest winds pick up behind the
frontal passage early tonight, so temps likely don`t drop below
the 30s tonight. Gusts of 20 mph are possible overnight.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Brief ridging builds in aloft and at the surface on Wednesday. This
will lead to sunny and dry conditions. Tricky high temperature
forecast as a W/NW wind will be weakening through the day. If they
weaken early enough, there is potential for a sea breeze that would
really cool off the coastal locations. If the northwest flow holds
off any sea breeze, highs could reach the mid 50s.
By late Wednesday afternoon, clouds increase ahead of the next
frontal system. As a warm front approaches from the south,
overrunning rain can start as early as the evening hours. The warm
front likely pushes through Thursday morning and then is followed by
the cold front Thursday afternoon/evening. Felt most confident in
the overrunning rain late Wednesday night, so went likely PoPs. The
rest of the time, through Thursday, capped at chance and lower end
likely PoPs as CAMs show just scattered activity. Totals should stay
under a quarter of an inch of liquid everywhere. This will likely be
another all plain rain event, but if temps drop a bit lower than
forecast across the interior, a brief period of a rain/snow mix is
possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The big picture shows mean troughing over the Eastern CONUS and
ridging over the West, with one an embedded shortwave trough
departing to the E on Fri, and another approaching on Sat and passing
across Sat night. In the wake of the 1st trough, Fri will feature
gusty NW flow and temps close to normal as sfc high pressure builds
quickly across. Meanwhile, a sfc low associated with the 2nd trough
will dive SE across the Great Lakes from Fri into Fri evening, and
then move across upstate NY and northern New England on Sat, with a
leading warm frontal passage early Sat AM and cold frontal passage
during the afternoon. Deep moisture and precip with this low should
be mostly to the north, so have fcst only slight chance PoP for
inland sections for daytime Sat, but do have a mostly cloudy sky
forecast throughout. WAA in the warm sector may be enough to push
temps up to NBM 75th percentile, yielding highs in the 50s
throughout before a late day cold fropa.
Strong low level CAA will yield dry but much colder wx beginning Sat
night, with lows in the 20s, then highs only in the lower/mid 30s
for Sunday and even colder lows in the teens/lower 20s for Sunday
night.
Mon will remain on the colder side as high pressure moves directly
across from the west, with highs still only in the 30s. Then a
developing return flow should quickly bring moderation to near
normal temps for Tue.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weak cold front moves through this evening followed by high
pressure tonight into Wednesday.
VFR. A shower is possible with a cold frontal passage late afternoon
into early evening, mainly at the NYC metro, and KSWF terminals.
Retained PROB30 at KSWF through 23Z, with a chance of a brief period
of MVFR. Otherwise, mainly sprinkles possible in the NYC metro, and
likely dry to the east.
S-SSW winds less than 10 kt shift to the NW this evening behind the
front, and remain WNW through Wednesday. Gusts 15 to 19 kt develop
Wednesday morning.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of wind shift to the WNW-NW this evening may be off by 1-2
hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. Rain showers likely late Wednesday night with MVFR,
chance IFR.
Thursday: Showers with MVFR or lower possible. Showers end late at
night with VFR returning. S-SW winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon.
Friday: VFR. W/NW winds G20-25 kt.
Saturday: VFR. S winds G15-20 kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions on all waters through early Thursday. An
increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front will
bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters by late Thursday morning.
25 kt gusts are possible along with 7-8 foot seas. SCA cond
likely to continue on the ocean into Fri, with W-NW flow gusting
up to 25 kt and and seas 5-7 ft. A brief lull Fri night as high
pressure slides quickly across will be followed by a return of
SCA cond to the ocean waters on Sat, with S-SW flow gusting up
to 25 kt and seas again building back to 5-7 ft. Winds shift NW
late day Sat following cold fropa, with SCA cond lasting on the
ocean into Sat night, possibly into Sunday AM E of Moriches
Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT