475
FXUS61 KOKX 252324
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
624 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through this evening. High pressure briefly
returns on Wednesday, followed by another frontal system Wednesday
night through Thursday night. High pressure will build quickly
across on Friday. Low pressure will then pass to the north Friday
night into Saturday, with a leading warm frontal passage Saturday
morning and trailing cold frontal passage late in the afternoon.
Canadian high pressure building from the west from Saturday night
through Monday will pass east Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Narrow band of showers across SE CT and the forks of Long Island
should pass east after 7 PM. Back to the west, cold front moving
through NYC and SW CT attm may kick up an isolated showers
across interior SW CT as well. It is possible that temps across
Long Island and S CT may spike up 5-10 degrees after fropa as
the front scours out the marine layer on a W-NW flow gusting to
20 mph. These winds should keep the blyr from decoupling
overnight despite clearing skies, so temps likely won`t drop
below the 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Brief ridging builds in aloft and at the surface on Wednesday.
This will lead to sunny and dry conditions. Tricky high
temperature forecast as a W/NW wind will be weakening through
the day. If they weaken early enough, there is potential for a
sea breeze that would really cool off the coastal locations. If
the northwest flow holds off any sea breeze, highs could reach
the mid 50s.
By late Wednesday afternoon, clouds increase ahead of the next
frontal system. As a warm front approaches from the south,
overrunning rain can start as early as the evening hours. The
warm front likely pushes through Thursday morning and then is
followed by the cold front Thursday afternoon/evening. Felt most
confident in the overrunning rain late Wednesday night, so went
likely PoPs. The rest of the time, through Thursday, capped at
chance and lower end likely PoPs as CAMs show just scattered
activity. Totals should stay under a quarter of an inch of
liquid everywhere. This will likely be another all plain rain
event, but if temps drop a bit lower than forecast across the
interior, a brief period of a rain/snow mix is possible.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The big picture shows mean troughing over the Eastern CONUS and
ridging over the West, with one an embedded shortwave trough
departing to the E on Fri, and another approaching on Sat and
passing across Sat night. In the wake of the 1st trough, Fri
will feature gusty NW flow and temps close to normal as sfc high
pressure builds quickly across. Meanwhile, a sfc low associated
with the 2nd trough will dive SE across the Great Lakes from
Fri into Fri evening, and then move across upstate NY and
northern New England on Sat, with a leading warm frontal passage
early Sat AM and cold frontal passage during the afternoon.
Deep moisture and precip with this low should be mostly to the
north, so have fcst only slight chance PoP for inland sections
for daytime Sat, but do have a mostly cloudy sky forecast
throughout. WAA in the warm sector may be enough to push temps
up to NBM 75th percentile, yielding highs in the 50s throughout
before a late day cold fropa.
Strong low level CAA will yield dry but much colder wx beginning
Sat night, with lows in the 20s, then highs only in the
lower/mid 30s for Sunday and even colder lows in the teens/lower
20s for Sunday night.
Mon will remain on the colder side as high pressure moves
directly across from the west, with highs still only in the
30s. Then a developing return flow should quickly bring
moderation to near normal temps for Tue.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A cold front continues moving across the terminals this evening.
High pressure follows overnight into Wednesday. The next frontal
system approaches Wednesday evening.
VFR. There is a chance of showers Wednesday evening, mainly
at KSWF.
Winds will continue to shift to the WNW-NW this evening behind
the cold front passage. Wind speeds should be 10 kt or less
tonight. The wind direction will remain WNW-NW on Wednesday, but
could back toward the W late in the afternoon. Gusts 15-20 kt
are possible. Winds diminish after sunset.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts on Wednesday may be occasional.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night: Chance of showers in the evening, then likely
overnight. MVFR or lower possible.
Thursday: Showers with MVFR or lower, mainly in the morning and
early afternoon. VFR returns late. S-SW winds G15-20 kt in the
afternoon. Winds shift to the WNW at night with G15-20 kt
possible.
Friday: VFR. WNW winds G20-25 kt.
Saturday: VFR. S winds G15-20 kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions on all waters through early Thursday.
Increasing S flow ahead of an approaching cold front will
bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters by late Thursday
morning. 25 kt gusts are possible along with 7-8 foot seas.
SCA cond likely to continue on the ocean into Fri, with W-NW
flow gusting up to 25 kt and and seas 5-7 ft. A brief lull Fri
night as high pressure slides quickly across will be followed by
a return of SCA cond to the ocean waters on Sat, with S-SW flow
gusting up to 25 kt and seas again building back to 5-7 ft.
Winds shift NW late day Sat following cold fropa, with SCA cond
lasting on the ocean into Sat night, possibly into Sunday AM E
of Moriches Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT