534
FXUS61 KOKX 261211
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
711 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Wednesday afternoon. A
warm front passes Wednesday night followed by a cold front
Thursday afternoon. High pressure then takes over again Thursday
night into Friday. Low pressure approaches from the north and
west Friday night. An associated warm front moves north of the
region Friday night, followed by a cold front passage Saturday
into Saturday evening. High pressure from the west then builds
in for the rest of the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure briefly takes hold today from our south under a small
upper-level ridge. We will be in between an exiting low pressure
system over the Canadian Maritimes and an approaching frontal system
to our west.
With high pressure in place, expecting mainly sunny and dry
conditions for much of the day. Clouds will begin to increase west
to east this evening as a frontal system approaches from the west.
Under a 10 kt W/WNW flow, downslope winds could lead to temperatures
warming more than the straight national blend of models, so have
bumped up highs today by mixing in some NBM 90th. This brings the
highs in line with the previous forecast. Highs will range from the
mid-50s to the south to the low-50s in the interior, with a few
upper-40s in the interior.
There is a small chance that highs could end up lower in southern
coastal areas, should a sea breeze develop in the afternoon. THis
would happen in the scenario that the W/WNW flow would be lighter
than anticipated. However, no 00Z CAMs have the sea breeze
making in until later in the evening, so high temperatures
should remain unaffected.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal system will impact us Wednesday night into late Thursday.
This low pressure system will be located over the Ohio River Valley
Wednesday night, bringing a warm front through Wednesday night
followed by a cold front late Thursday as the low pressure system
moves north of the area into New England.
As the warm front pushes in Wednesday night, we`ll see precipitation
develop along the front. The strongest warm air advection and FGEN
signal appears to be over the NW half of the area as the warm front
advances north of the area by daybreak Thursday. This will lead to a
good chance for rain in western NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and
into western S CT Wednesday night. Precipitation coverage looks to
decrease along the warm front as you go to the eastern half of the
area. Likely ending in light scattered rain for eastern half of the
CWA. Temperatures will be warm enough for much of what falls to be
liquid rain. There is a small chance northern Orange or Putnam
counties may see a brief rain-snow mix early Wednesday night, but
looks unlikely at this point in time.
Following the warm frontal passage, there may be a brief break in
the rain before showers gradually redevelop as the low gets closer
and moisture increases with the southerly flow. This would likely be
just after daybreak Thursday.
Scattered light rain showers may linger across the area until the
cold front approaches and passes late Thursday afternoon into early
Thursday evening. Most 00Z CAMs keep the rain pretty light and
scattered, but its possible they could be underdoing it. Thanks to
the strong warm front, PWATs will range from 0.75 to 0.9", which
exceeds the 90th percentile on SPC`s Sounding Climatology page.
Combine this with above average temperatures in the mid-50s,
increasing upper-level energy from an approaching longwave trough,
and lift from the cold front, and we could end up seeing more
numerous showers in the afternoon than CAMs suggest.
After the cold front passes, showers will clear late Thursday
evening with clouds clearing west to east Thursday night. Event rain
totals from Wednesday night through Thursday will likely lay closer
to 0.5" in the far interior while southern areas near the coast will
likely lie below 0.25". No concerns for flooding.
A few high clouds may remain Thursday night as surface high pressure
under a weak upper-level ridge takes over again and sticks around
into Friday. Cold air advection under NW flow keeps highs on Friday
closer to average in the mid/low-40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level trough pattern takes shape over the Northeast Friday night
through the weekend. This eventually transitions to more of a zonal
pattern during the first half of next week.
At the surface, high pressure is moving offshore with low pressure
approaching from the north and west Friday night. A warm front moves
northeast across the region with winds becoming more southerly and
increasing after the frontal passage. Low temperatures
are likely to be set Friday evening with temperatures slowly rising
late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A cold front then
moves across the region Saturday afternoon into early Saturday
evening.
There will be chances of precipitation, mainly in the form of plain
rain, across mostly northern portions of the region late Friday
night through Saturday evening. Some snow showers will be possible
at the onset as well as after the cold front passage.
Weather then remains dry for the rest of Saturday night through
early next week. Next chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday night
into middle part of next week with mainly rain but with some
possible mixing with snow for the interior.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds in through this afternoon. A warm front
approaches tonight and moves through by early Thursday.
VFR through this afternoon. Rain showers will become more
probable tonight, eventually becoming likely for more northern
terminals such as KSWF. There will be some potential for MVFR
and even localized IFR tonight into early Thursday.
Winds generally NW near 5-10 kt through today, become more variable
in direction and decrease this evening to near 5 kts or less. Then
winds become more SE-S near 5-10 kt late tonight into early
Thursday. Some wind gusts near 15-20 kt are forecast today.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional this morning and afternoon.
Timing of showers and MVFR tonight may be off by several hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: Showers with MVFR or lower. VFR returns at night.
S-SW winds G15-20 kt. Winds shift to the WNW at night with
G15-20 kt. Gusts diminish overnight. LLWS early with SW winds
near 40-45 kt at 2kft.
Friday: Mainly VFR. WNW wind gusts near 20kt during the day.
Saturday: VFR. S-SW winds during day become more W-NW late.
Wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt day into eve.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions on all waters through early Thursday.
Increasing S flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring SCA
conditions to the ocean waters by late Thursday morning. 25 kt gusts
are possible along with 7-9 foot seas.
SCAs are issued for ocean waters, southshore bays, and E LI Sound
entrance. See MWW for more details.
SCA conditions will continue overnight Thursday. Near-25 kt gusts
are possible on all waters on Friday while 5-7 ft seas linger on the
ocean waters.
Possible lingering SCA seas on the ocean Friday night with otherwise
below SCA seas for other marine zones. Seas build Saturday with more
widespread SCA level seas on the ocean which extend into Saturday
night. These could linger on the ocean for Sunday as well.
Otherwise, other marine areas are below SCA seas and Sunday night,
all forecast waters expected to be below SCA levels.
Wind gusts SCA levels forecast on the ocean Friday night and much of
the weekend. Otherwise, non-ocean zones are below SCA level
gusts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Event rain totals from Wednesday night through Thursday will likely
lay closer to 0.5" in the far interior while southern areas near the
coast will likely lie below 0.25". No hydrologic concerns.
No issues expected Friday night through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR