652
FXUS61 KOKX 261633
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1133 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through this afternoon. A warm
front passes late tonight into Thursday morning, followed by a
cold frontal passage in the late afternoon or early evening.
High pressure then takes over again Thursday night into Friday.
Low pressure approaches from the north and west Friday night. An
associated warm front moves north of the region Friday night,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Saturday. High pressure
from the west then builds in for the rest of the weekend and
into early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Temperatures similar to 24h ago are already overachieving across
the region with weak cold or neutral advection. Thus, bumped
temps up some a bit and went slightly above the latest HRRR
guidance which has a better idea what is going on. This puts
much of the area in the low to mid 50s this afternoon for highs.
Have also bumped up W/NW with gusts to around 20 mph into this
afternoon, with even few higher gusts early. Otherwise, high
pressure passes to the south this afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A frontal system will impact the area tonight into late Thursday.
The associated low will be located over the Ohio River Valley
tonight, sending a warm front through late tonight into Thursday
morning, followed by a cold frontal passage late Thursday as
the low passes to the north and west of the area.
As the warm front pushes in tonight, we`ll see precipitation
develop along the front. The strongest warm air advection and
FGEN signal appears to be over the NW half of the area as the
warm front advances north of the area by daybreak Thursday. This
will lead to a good chance for rain tonight across western NE
NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and into western S CT. Precipitation
coverage looks to decrease along the warm front as you go to
the eastern half of the area. Likely ending in light scattered
rain for eastern half of the CWA. Temperatures will be warm
enough for much of what falls to be liquid rain. There is a
small chance northern Orange or Putnam counties may see a brief
rain-snow mix at the onset tonight, but looks unlikely at this
point in time.
Following the warm frontal passage, there may be a brief break in
the rain before showers gradually redevelop as the low gets closer
and moisture increases with the southerly flow.
Scattered light rain showers may linger across the area until the
cold front approaches and passes late Thursday afternoon into early
Thursday evening. Most 00Z CAMs keep the rain pretty light and
scattered, but its possible they could be underrating it.
Thanks to the strong warm front, PWATs will range from 0.75 to
0.9", which exceeds the 90th percentile on SPC`s Sounding
Climatology page. Combine this with above average temperatures
in the mid-50s, increasing upper-level energy from an
approaching longwave trough, and lift from the cold front, and
we could end up seeing more numerous showers in the afternoon
than CAMs suggest.
After the cold front passes, showers will clear late Thursday evening
with clouds clearing west to east Thursday night. Event rain totals
from tonight through Thursday will likely lay closer to 0.5" in
the far interior while southern areas near the coast will likely
lie below 0.25". There are no concerns for flooding.
A few high clouds may remain Thursday night as surface high pressure
under a weak upper-level ridge takes over again and sticks around
into Friday. Cold air advection under NW flow keeps highs on Friday
closer to average in the mid/low-40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level trough pattern takes shape over the Northeast Friday night
through the weekend. This eventually transitions to more of a zonal
pattern during the first half of next week.
At the surface, high pressure is moving offshore with low pressure
approaching from the north and west Friday night. A warm front moves
northeast across the region with winds becoming more southerly and
increasing after the frontal passage. Low temperatures
are likely to be set Friday evening with temperatures slowly rising
late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A cold front then
moves across the region Saturday afternoon into early Saturday
evening.
There will be chances of precipitation, mainly in the form of plain
rain, across mostly northern portions of the region late Friday
night through Saturday evening. Some snow showers will be possible
at the onset as well as after the cold front passage.
Weather then remains dry for the rest of Saturday night through
early next week. Next chance for precipitation arrives Tuesday night
into middle part of next week with mainly rain but with some
possible mixing with snow for the interior.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in through this afternoon. A warm front
approaches tonight and moves through by early Thursday.
VFR through this afternoon. Rain showers will become more
probable tonight, eventually becoming likely for more northern
terminals such as KSWF. There will be some potential for MVFR
and even localized IFR tonight into early Thursday.
Winds generally NW near 5-10 kt through today, become more variable
in direction and decrease this evening to near 5 kts or less. Then
winds become more SE-S near 5-10 kt late tonight into early
Thursday. Some wind gusts near 15-20 kt are forecast today.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional this morning and afternoon.
Timing of showers and MVFR tonight may be off by several hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: Showers with MVFR or lower. VFR returns at night.
S-SW winds G15-20 kt. Winds shift to the WNW at night with
G15-20 kt. Gusts diminish overnight. LLWS early with SW winds
near 40-45 kt at 2kft.
Friday: Mainly VFR. WNW wind gusts near 20kt during the day.
Saturday: VFR. S-SW winds during day become more W-NW late.
Wind gusts 15-20 kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt day into eve.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions on all waters through early Thursday.
Increasing S flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring SCA
conditions to the ocean waters by late Thursday morning. 25 kt gusts
are possible along with 7-9 foot seas.
SCAs are issued for ocean waters, south shore bays, and E LI
Sound entrance. See MWW for more details.
SCA conditions will continue overnight Thursday. Near-25 kt gusts
are possible on all waters on Friday while 5-7 ft seas linger on the
ocean waters.
Possible lingering SCA seas on the ocean Friday night with otherwise
below SCA seas for other marine zones. Seas build Saturday with more
widespread SCA level seas on the ocean which extend into Saturday
night. These could linger on the ocean for Sunday as well.
Otherwise, other marine areas are below SCA seas and Sunday night,
all forecast waters expected to be below SCA levels.
Wind gusts SCA levels forecast on the ocean Friday night and much of
the weekend. Otherwise, non-ocean zones are below SCA level
gusts.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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Event rain totals tonight through Thursday will likely lay closer
to 0.5" in the far interior while southern areas near the coast
will likely lie below 0.25". No hydrologic concerns.
No issues expected Friday night through early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DW
AVIATION...JM