364
FXUS61 KOKX 262112
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
412 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure over the Ohio Valley tonight will pass well northwest
of the area on Thursday, sending a warm front across the area in
the morning, followed by an evening cold frontal passage. Weak
high pressure builds in from the west into Friday. Low pressure
passes north of the region Saturday while dragging a strong cold
front through by Saturday evening. High pressure builds for the
remainder of the weekend and settles over the region early next
week. Low pressure and its associated warm front impact the region
towards the middle of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A weak ridge of high pressure over the area to start the night
will gradually give way to a warm front approaching from the SW.
The latter of which is associated with a deepening low over the
Ohio Valley. Modest WAA overnight into Thursday morning will
produce a short period of rain, mainly light, that will work
into from the SW from about 9pm to midnight. The best thermal
forcing will be to the north and west of the NYC metro. Most of
the rain with this frontal system will occur tonight through the
morning with the warm front, about 2 to 3 tenths of an inch
across northern portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior
portions of Fairfield and New Haven Counties in SW CT. Amounts
drop off to the south with a tenth of an inch or less across LI.
Lows tonight will be achieved during the first half of the night,
ranging from the mid 30s inland, to the lower 40s at the coast.
Temperatures will then slowly rise for the remainder of the
night. This is about 10 degrees above normal.
A strengthening low-level jet works up from the SW toward
daybreak Thursday, sending the surface warm front through the
area during the morning hours and likely shutting off the rain
for a short time. There is plenty of dry subcloud air along and
behind the warm front, so any drizzle, low clouds, patchy fog,
will be brief in the morning. In addition, the low-level wind
shear should help to mix the boundary layer enough. SW winds
will gusts up 20 mph for much of the area, but perhaps as high
as 30 mph across the south shore and twin forks of LI. Expect
another push of showers working from west to east from late
morning into the afternoon along and ahead of a pre-frontal
trough and then again with the actual cold front during the
evening hours. The best chance will once again be to the north
and west of NYC. Much of the area will only see brief episodes
of showers. For highs Thursday, coastal locations with the
strengthening onshore flow should be cooler (cold waters) and
closer to 50, while areas from NYC and points north will get
well into the 50s. Temperature forecast have been overachieving
the last couple of days. Cloud cover will be limiting factor to
get much higher. Should more sun be realized these temperatures
could bump 60 in spots.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Any lingering showers far eastern LI and SE CT come to an end
early with the cold frontal passage. Weak high pressure approaches
from the west with weak CAA on west winds. Lows will be in the
30s, still quite a bit above normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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* KEY POINTS
* A sharp drop in temperatures Saturday night into Sunday as much
below normal temperatures return.
* Temperatures moderate and turning milder towards the middle of
next week.
A NW flow subsides into Friday afternoon with seasonable
temperatures. Some PVA and warm thermal advection then ensues Friday
night ahead of the next longwave trough. The overall longwave
pattern is fairly stable with good agreement among the global
deterministic guidance at 500 mb. With that said there are some
subtle timing differences with regard to embedded shortwaves in the
longwave trough for Friday night through Sunday morning. With the
best thermal forcing going north of the region, only have slight
chance to chance PoPs later Friday night into Saturday. If any
precip does it occur it should fall mostly in the liquid form and is
expected to be light with minimal QPF. Have maintained low end PoPs
through Saturday afternoon, and early Saturday evening for
northeastern portions of the region with the trailing digger of the
the longwave trough approaching. As mentioned earlier there are some
timing differences with shortwave features, thus went a little above
consensus with PoPs and cloud cover during this timeframe. The cold
front should slide through late in the day Saturday or during
Saturday evening, behind the front comes much colder air as an
unseasonably cold cP air mass for early March arrives. Into Sunday
850 mb temps are progged to get down to around -14C along with 516
dm thickness values. Wind chill values for Sunday morning will be
down into the teens, with a few single digit values possible across
the northern interior.
The cP air mass moderates as it settles over the area Monday and
Monday night with temperatures still averaging below normal as the
winds subside. The high pushes off the coast sometime later Tuesday
as a strong return flow sets up into mid week. Low pressure and a
warm front approach late Tue night into Wednesday with the next
likelihood of precip, which will be in the form of rain as
temperatures warm.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure pushes east this evening. A warm front approaches
tonight and moves through by early Thursday.
VFR through this afternoon. Rain showers move in from west to east
between 03 and 09z. There may be a lull in showers until about 12z.
MVFR vsby is possible in any showers. MVFR or lower cigs is expected
only at KSWF, KHPN, KBDR and KGON starting around midnight tonight.
NYC terminals and KISP likely stay low end VFR.
Winds weaken and become more variable in direction this evening to
near 5 kts or less. There is potential for brief southerly winds
with a sea breeze, mainly at ISP and JFK late this afternoon. Then
winds become more SE-S everywhere near 5-10 kt late tonight into
early Thursday. Winds increase Thursday morning, with some gusts
back up to around 20 kt possible.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts expected to last until about 22z.
Some uncertainty with KJFK wind direction this evening as a seabreeze
may push through.
Timing of showers and MVFR tonight may be off by several hours.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon: Showers with MVFR or lower. VFR returns at
night. S-SW winds G15-20 kt. Winds shift to the WNW at night with
G15-20 kt. Gusts diminish overnight.
Friday: Mainly VFR. WNW wind gusts near 20kt during the day.
Saturday: VFR. S-SW winds during day become more W-NW late. Wind
gusts 15-20 kt.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt day into eve.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Increasing S flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring
SCA conditions to the ocean waters Thursday with 25-30 kt gusts
and seas building to 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, expect marginal SCA
conditions across the eastern bays, eastern sound (east of the
CT River),and Great South Bay during the daytime hours. Winds
diminish in the evening, but seas will remain high.
Small craft conditions should carry though a good portion of Friday
with ocean seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft as any small craft gusts on
the ocean diminish by afternoon. A brief period of sub advisory
conditions is likely late Friday afternoon and evening before small
craft conditions return as a southerly flow increases into Saturday
morning. Small craft seas will be in place on the ocean Saturday
with marginal small craft gusts likely on a portion of the non-ocean
waters. Behind a cold front a W to NW flow ensues with a increasing
likelihood of at least marginal small craft gusts Saturday night
into Sunday. The pressure gradient will gradually relax into Monday
with sub advisory conditions across all waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the middle of next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW