267
FXUS61 KOKX 270043
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
743 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley tonight will pass well northwest
of the area on Thursday, sending a warm front across the area in
the morning, followed by an evening cold frontal passage. Weak
high pressure builds in from the west into Friday. Low pressure
passes north of the region Saturday while dragging a strong cold
front through by Saturday evening. High pressure builds for the
remainder of the weekend and settles over the region early next
week. Low pressure and its associated warm front impact the region
towards the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For this update just adjusted temperatures up a couple of
degrees, especially for later tonight due to primarily abundant
cloud cover. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
A weak ridge of high pressure over the area this evening gives
way to a warm front approaching from the SW. The latter of which
is associated with a deepening low over the Ohio Valley. Modest
WAA overnight into Thursday morning will produce a short period
of rain, mainly light, that will work into from the SW from
about 9pm to midnight. The best thermal forcing will be to the
north and west of the NYC metro. Most of the rain with this
frontal system will occur tonight through the morning with the
warm front, about 2 to 3 tenths of an inch across northern
portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior portions of
Fairfield and New Haven Counties in SW CT. Amounts drop off to
the south with a tenth of an inch or less across LI. Lows
tonight will be achieved during the first half of the night,
ranging from the mid 30s inland, to the lower 40s at the coast.
Temperatures will then slowly rise for the remainder of the
night. This is about 10 degrees above normal.
A strengthening low-level jet works up from the SW toward
daybreak Thursday, sending the surface warm front through the
area during the morning hours and likely shutting off the rain
for a short time. There is plenty of dry subcloud air along and
behind the warm front, so any drizzle, low clouds, patchy fog,
will be brief in the morning. In addition, the low-level wind
shear should help to mix the boundary layer enough. SW winds
will gusts up 20 mph for much of the area, but perhaps as high
as 30 mph across the south shore and twin forks of LI. Expect
another push of showers working from west to east from late
morning into the afternoon along and ahead of a pre-frontal
trough and then again with the actual cold front during the
evening hours. The best chance will once again be to the north
and west of NYC. Much of the area will only see brief episodes
of showers. For highs Thursday, coastal locations with the
strengthening onshore flow should be cooler (cold waters) and
closer to 50, while areas from NYC and points north will get
well into the 50s. Temperature forecast have been overachieving
the last couple of days. Cloud cover will be limiting factor to
get much higher. Should more sun be realized these temperatures
could bump 60 in spots.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers far eastern LI and SE CT come to an end
early with the cold frontal passage. Weak high pressure approaches
from the west with weak CAA on west winds. Lows will be in the
30s, still quite a bit above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Key Points:
* A sharp drop in temperatures Saturday night into Sunday as much
below normal temperatures return.
* Temperatures moderate and turn milder toward the middle of
next week.
A NW flow subsides into Friday afternoon with seasonable
temperatures. Some PVA and warm thermal advection then ensues Friday
night ahead of the next longwave trough. The overall longwave
pattern is fairly stable with good agreement among the global
deterministic guidance at 500 mb. With that said there are some
subtle timing differences with regard to embedded shortwaves in the
longwave trough for Friday night through Sunday morning. With the
best thermal forcing going north of the region, only have slight
chance to chance PoPs later Friday night into Saturday. If any
precip does it occur it should fall mostly in the liquid form and is
expected to be light with minimal QPF. Have maintained low end PoPs
through Saturday afternoon, and early Saturday evening for
northeastern portions of the region with the trailing digger of the
the longwave trough approaching. As mentioned earlier there are some
timing differences with shortwave features, thus went a little above
consensus with PoPs and cloud cover during this timeframe. The cold
front should slide through late in the day Saturday or during
Saturday evening, behind the front comes much colder air as an
unseasonably cold cP air mass for early March arrives. Into Sunday
850 mb temps are progged to get down to around -14C along with 516
dm thickness values. Wind chill values for Sunday morning will be
down into the teens, with a few single digit values possible across
the northern interior.
The cP air mass moderates as it settles over the area Monday and
Monday night with temperatures still averaging below normal as the
winds subside. The high pushes off the coast sometime later Tuesday
as a strong return flow sets up into mid week. Low pressure and a
warm front approach late Tue night into Wednesday with the next
likelihood of precip, which will be in the form of rain as
temperatures warm.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure pushes east this evening. A warm front will
approach tonight and move through by late Thursday morning,
followed by an approaching cold front late in the afternoon.
VFR through this afternoon. A few rain showers well in advance
of the warm front should move across from SW to NE late this
evening and overnight. Thinking cond stay mostly VFR with this
activity, but with the warm front approaching cannot rule out
some MVFR cigs late tonight into Thu AM especially at the
CT/Long Island terminals.
Winds should quickly veer from W-NW through N this evening and
then become E-NE late tonight into Thu AM before warm fropa,
then briefly SE just ahead of fropa. S-SW winds after fropa
mostly 10-15G20kt but with some higher gusts possible along the
coast especially at KJFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled AMD expected. Cannot totally rule out MVFR cond
at times late tonight into Thu AM before winds turn southerly
with warm fropa.
.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night: VFR. WNW winds G20kt, with a brief higher gust
over 25 kt possible early in the evening. Gusts diminish after
midnight.
Friday: Mainly VFR. WNW winds G20kt daytime.
Saturday: VFR. S-SW winds G15-20kt daytime, becoming W-NW late
day and at night.
Sunday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increasing S flow ahead of an approaching cold front will bring
SCA conditions to the ocean waters Thursday with gusts 25-30 kt
and and seas building to 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, expect marginal
SCA conditions across the eastern bays, eastern sound (east of
the CT River),and Great South Bay during the daytime hours.
Winds diminish in the evening, but seas will remain high.
Small craft conditions should carry though a good portion of
Friday with ocean seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft as any small craft
gusts on the ocean diminish by afternoon. A brief period of sub
advisory conditions is likely late Friday afternoon and evening
before small craft conditions return as a southerly flow
increases into Saturday morning. Small craft seas will be in
place on the ocean Saturday with marginal small craft gusts
likely on a portion of the non-ocean waters. Behind a cold front
a W to NW flow ensues with a increasing likelihood of at least
marginal small craft gusts Saturday night into Sunday. The
pressure gradient will gradually relax into Monday with sub
advisory conditions across all waters.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the middle of next
week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM EST Thursday for
ANZ340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 4 PM EST Friday for
ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW